Selection Bias in Drill Performance

[JCN]

A. Go shoot a real match against a top 10 nationally ranked GM with video and links to scores

and

B. Go to a school and shoot the FAST or the Rogers Test for your instructor, classmates and all to see


2016 Gabe White is relevant because that was the 1st time somebody did it (125/of 125@ Rogers) with an iron sighted gun, from concealment.

If Drs. you know talked about procedures they have never done,particularly those outside of their speciality and/or board certification, the way you talk about shooting drills/tests you have never done-you would dismiss them out of hand would you not?

PS- You are a better shooter than me.

This is still coming from a place of love and respect for you so I hope you imagine me drinking a beer while we have this discussion and it’s definitely not meant to antagonize.

A. I would be crushed by a top 10 GM Nationally. I know this because the guys locally who are consistent top 20-30 at Nationals eat my lunch most of the time. A lot of the sport is movement and transitions which is a whole different ball of wax that static shooting. At my age nearing 50 years old, I’m not winning any foot races anytime soon.

B. I guess this one is a limited time as my main limited resource discussion. It could be seen as a cop out but really, if someone can reliably draw and hit a 1” circle in 1.5 seconds, they can reliably draw and hit a 3x5” card in that time frame.

It’s funny about the procedures because that’s analogous. I’ll give an example. An interventional cardiologist like @YVK works on vessels that are 2-4mm in size… from the inside with wires and catheters.

A vascular surgeon spends most of their time doing surgery and not transcatheter interventions.

If neither one was trained on transcatheter interventions on leg arteries measuring 10x the size and an interventional cardiologist felt confident that with less additional training than the vascular surgeon he could do it.

I would believe him. Because he can do similar things at a higher technical level. Sure he can’t do it without some train up time, just like if I went to a Langdon / White / Rodgers school I’d have to spend time away from my primary sport to train up things that I don’t normally practice (concealment and slide lock).

But I’m pretty sure my component parts will hold up favorably. That’s why I test most of these things at home for myself to make sure I’m on track for non-USPSA stuff.

Maybe it’s a cop out? But do you really think I couldn’t do it skill wise? If I went and did do it, would that change this discussion at all? Probably not which is also demotivating.

I think I’ve achieved a pretty solid level of pistol proficiency. I’m not the best in the world nor even at my local club.

So I moved on to long guns and 99.9% of my dry and live fire these days is with an MPX…

I actually titled my long gun training journal with you in mind to show you that I don’t start off necessarily very good, but it’s the thought, work and process that gets me there. I’m not naturally the “mostest” but I have a good work ethic and a keen eye towards efficiency and improvement which plays well for shooting and motorsports.

[vcdgrips]

JCN
Not surprisingly, as someone who has not experienced a shooting class dynamic, based on my direct training and experience, I think you under appreciate the "pressure" that is brought to bear in that environment and how it impacts on demand performance.

I would rate your chances as 50/50 at best re shooting 2 sub 5.00 FASTS in a row, cold, in the class setting, with an iron sighted gun. My educated guess is that the class setting can add a .5 to 1.0ish to each run such that regardless of sighting system, for most shooters, most of the time.

Re shooting a 125/125 at Rogers- I will leave it to those who have done it and who have attended the class to speak from experience.

On pure extrapolation- the class pressure + the shooting challenges themselves given the inordinate amount of support hand shooting couple with the adage that you have to be perfect and the test only has to "win" once i.e. I would venture a pulling it out of my buff guess that you would not shoot a 125 given the thousands of shooters who have gone thru and those whose experience re performing under "pressure" far exceeds mine or anyone who has not shot for blood on the regular, on a 2 way range.

[JCN]

JCN
Not surprisingly, as someone who has not experienced a shooting class dynamic, based on my direct training and experience, I think you under appreciate the "pressure" that is brought to bear in that environment and how it impacts on demand performance.

I would rate your chances as 50/50 at best re shooting 2 sub 5.00 FASTS in a row, cold, in the class setting, with an iron sighted gun. My educated guess is that the class setting can add a .5 to 1.0ish to each run such that regardless of sighting system, for most shooters, most of the time.

Re shooting a 125/125 at Rogers- I will leave it to those who have done it and who have attended the class to speak from experience.

On pure extrapolation- the class pressure + the shooting challenges themselves given the inordinate amount of support hand shooting couple with the adage that you have to be perfect and the test only has to "win" once i.e. I would venture a pulling it out of my buff guess that you would not shoot a 125 given the thousands of shooters who have gone thru and those whose experience re performing under "pressure" far exceeds mine or anyone who has not shot for blood on the regular, on a 2 way range.

I think those are fair guesses and reasonable guesses.

Especially if I went there today. That’s probably fair.

But with train up time (and that’s the part that I can’t spare the time), I put my chances at 95%+.

Because I overprepare for things that matter.

My training metric would be 10 consecutive FAST at 4.5 or less in a row starting from cold.
My dry par would be 4.0.

As for weak handed shooting, it’s actually one of my strengths.



But I would practice and over train to make sure I could make all the string parameters on demand. Using smaller targets in practice.

I even have these to practice with if I ever get the time.



I prepare for challenges that I undertake.

But you’re right. If you put me today with an iron sight G34 that I don’t normally shoot, I could see that being about right.

If I went to pass a test, I would train to pass a test.

Regarding pressure, I started competition and performance (in non-shooting things) in front of audiences from a very young age. Performing on demand is exhilarating for me. I usually wind up budgeting about 5% performance margin loss from practice so I build that into my training.

[JCN]

As an aside, I know I have limited time left to be competitive in USPSA due to the physical nature of the game and my creaky joints.

So I’ve set my goal to be a PCC GM this year and then I can feel that I’ve accomplished adequate proficiency in pistol and long gun the way I want to use them (theoretical self / home defense).

It’s taking up all my training time and focus so I haven’t been doing any pistol dry or live practice.

I anticipate at some point when I slow down from USPSA and can only do “stand and shoot” type things I’ll move into Steel Challenge with my daughter.

Then I might have some time to train up on hitting small steel circles from a standing position and go to a Rogers school for fun with some guy friends as a man vacation. I’d probably set up a full Rogers range on my property with the electric targets I posted above for practice.

@vcdgrips IIRC, at the Rogers “test” you actually have multiple tries at it during the course of the class.

Something like shooting it daily Mon-Thurs with two tries on Thursday. Gabe and Manny didn’t clean it until Thursday.

So that also changes the odds of passing it. It’s not that you’re one and done.

I give it a 50% chance that Rogers will retire before I get to the school though.

[MickAK]

I've noticed that people that don't have enough time to shoot at JCN's level seem to have plenty of time to describe the multiplicity of ways that he is an A-hole, for lack of a better adjective.

@JCN I would add my voice to those that are more impressed with people that let their failures get recorded and published for all to see. This is one of the reasons I like Steve Rinella so much, he's always shown his failures as much or possibly more than his triumphs.

[breakingtime91]

I've noticed that people that don't have enough time to shoot at JCN's level seem to have plenty of time to describe the multiplicity of ways that he is an A-hole, for lack of a better adjective.

@JCN I would add my voice to those that are more impressed with people that let their failures get recorded and published for all to see. This is one of the reasons I like Steve Rinella so much, he's always shown his failures as much or possibly more than his triumphs.

Or he is just an asshole. I tend to notice assholes more then people who genuinely care about others success more then their own. If someone I am teaching outshoots me, I am incredibly happy. I get more out of being a teacher and passing my experiences, skills learned, and knowledge then I do being the best on the drill or show boating. For record, my Fastest clean fast back to back were under 5 and a half seconds. I am happy with that given my other skill sets and the balance it all must be in. JCN, your a good shooter but no one will care if you are an asshole. My dad used to always say you can build bridges your entire life, you suck one cock, you are a cock sucker. Maybe that will sink in, probably not though.

As a side: JCN has personally been great to me. I won't elaborate because he asked me not to but my personal code made me speak up for better or for worst. Pistol-forum has always been a place to share our different backgrounds, skills, and prop each other up. I have shot with people all over the country because of this forum and have always walked away blown away by how kind and skilled they are. I hope JCN recognizes that he can pass it on in a similar way. Delivery is a huge part of that.

[MickAK]

Or he is just an asshole

That is certainly possible but I've watched him devote a lot of effort to helping people get better and I genuinely think he wants everyone to to succeed. I've never understood the hate he got here or the distractions his posts always seem to generate.

I don't know a lot of high performance people that aren't kinda A-holes in one way or another. Stoeger got banned here if I recall correctly.

I guess I wish there would be more 'Hey, here is a self taught shooter with an interesting perspective, let's discuss where he gets it right and where he gets it wrong' and less pages and pages of how this skilled guy that makes a determined effort to contribute new stuff to the technical sections is bad news.

[CCT125US]

Speaking of class pressure @JCN and @vcdgrips...

In a class with TLG (where I got my pin, but not a coin) I had shot a clean sub 5, was about to shoot my coin run... Todd asked if I was satisfied with the condition of my pistol. Well, yes Todd, I was....

Shooter standby, beep..... guess who didn't make par?? Good times, not the clock kind, but the memories.

[breakingtime91]

That is certainly possible but I've watched him devote a lot of effort to helping people get better and I genuinely think he wants everyone to to succeed. I've never understood the hate he got here or the distractions his posts always seem to generate.

I don't know a lot of high performance people that aren't kinda A-holes in one way or another. Stoeger got banned here if I recall correctly.

I guess I wish there would be more 'Hey, here is a self taught shooter with an interesting perspective, let's discuss where he gets it right and where he gets it wrong' and less pages and pages of how this skilled guy that makes a determined effort to contribute new stuff to the technical sections is bad news.

and you could be correct and I could be in the wrong. Based off this thread split, it does really come off pompous. He is a great shooter and I enjoy his threads, especially the tinkering he does with the guns that I would be too nervous to do. All of it is interesting and entertaining, they are threads I visit daily to see what shenanigans he has done this time. But this thread just seemed more of a highlight of his skill then it was being constructive or diagnostic. That is where he has a lot to offer, he obviously has skill and a way that he approaches that training that works. I would be seriously interested to hear him break down draws, metrics, etc when it came to langdon's draw that I could compare to my own but it didn't come off that way. It came off bad, and I hate to watch talent wasted by pushing others away.

I hope he reads this and doesn't think I don't like him, because I do. He is a much nicer guy then this thread shows. I just don't want him to push people away when he has so much to offer.

[camel]

I think the problem with Jcn. Is his writing. It seems pompous.