Hurricane Season 2020

[Pacioli]

Yup. The current forecast shows it hitting the eastern part of Louisiana, but the "cone of error" stretches from the TX/LA border to the FL panhandle. If the current forecast holds, I'll be on the west ("dry") side.

The forecast track keeps moving west. Yesterday it was going over Lake Maurepas just west of NO, now it's going over Lafayette. That's a westward shift of almost 120 miles in 24 hours. That makes evacuation plans difficult, especially since I'd rather go sooner than later but don't want to go to where the storm is going. My dad did this with Betsy. We evac'd NO to BR. Betsey came up the Mississippi river behind us. She was a bitch.

The oscillating strength is interesting. it was 4 yesterday, then a 3 before hitting Yucatan, expected to be 4 again later today and then degrade when it (hopefullly) runs into a dry air mass before making landfall.

This storm is more problematic than most.

[JTQ]

The oscillating strength is interesting. it was 4 yesterday, then a 3 before hitting Yucatan, expected to be 4 again later today and then degrade when it (hopefullly) runs into a dry air mass before making landfall.

This storm is more problematic than most.

Post Sally, the northern gulf cooled a bit which is going to help reduce the power of Delta before it makes landfall in the US. It's still going to be a strong storm, but right now it looks more like a CAT2 than a CAT4 at US landfall. I hope.

The forecast track keeps moving west. Yesterday it was going over Lake Maurepas just west of NO, now it's going over Lafayette. That's a westward shift of almost 120 miles in 24 hours. That makes evacuation plans difficult, especially since I'd rather go sooner than later but don't want to go to where the storm is going. My dad did this with Betsy. We evac'd NO to BR. Betsey came up the Mississippi river behind us. She was a bitch.

In hurricane scale terms, New Orleans to Baton Rouge doesn't seem like much of an evacuation. For this one, if you're going east, I'd try to get at least as far as Mobile.

The two hurricane's I evacuated the Pensacola area for, Ivan and I think Denis, I went to Nashville for Ivan and Atlanta for the other.

[Pacioli]

In hurricane scale terms, New Orleans to Baton Rouge doesn't seem like much of an evacuation.

Things were different back then. Forecasting, roads, etc. We ended up in a safe place, some school gymnasium, can't remember which one. But, safe from the winds and high enough ground. So mission accomplished in that regard.

I'm watching estimated landfall strength and track to determine whether I go. Hate to go but I don't want to ride out a 4, probably not even a 3. Regardless of stay or go, it looks like BR will be on the bad side of the storm so aftermath will undoubtedly be a suck situation. Power restoration took weeks after Gustav, a cat 2 at landfall.

Given the NW track projection, I would probably go to Texas.

[Hambo]

@Pacioli, I find https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits gives the most useful information. He does an evening video on his site, but also has Twitter updates.

[Stephanie B]

Delta looks right now as though it will hit near where Laura did.

[revchuck38]

Delta looks right now as though it will hit near where Laura did.

It's forecast to hit a bit east of where Laura did. I'm right on the edge of evacuating again, need to find a place that accepts dogs. I just restocked the fridge and we're supposed to lose power again. The generator is full, the truck is full and I have ten gallons of gas for the generator. Need to decide pretty soon.

[revchuck38]

I didn’t evacuate and lived to tell the tale. We lost power about 5:15 pm. Super hard rain until I fell asleep about 10:30, wind was pretty feisty, gusts to about 100 mph. Luckily any trees that might have fallen had already been taken out by Laura. No apparent additional damage to the house, even the tarps are still intact. The generator is back on duty.

[RoyGBiv]

I didn’t evacuate and lived to tell the tale. We lost power about 5:15 pm. Super hard rain until I fell asleep about 10:30, wind was pretty feisty, gusts to about 100 mph. Luckily any trees that might have fallen had already been taken out by Laura. No apparent additional damage to the house, even the tarps are still intact. The generator is back on duty.

Glad you're ok and relatively unscathed.

[Rex G]

I didn’t evacuate and lived to tell the tale. We lost power about 5:15 pm. Super hard rain until I fell asleep about 10:30, wind was pretty feisty, gusts to about 100 mph. Luckily any trees that might have fallen had already been taken out by Laura. No apparent additional damage to the house, even the tarps are still intact. The generator is back on duty.

So very thankful and glad to see your post!

[Pacioli]

I didn’t evacuate and lived to tell the tale. We lost power about 5:15 pm. Super hard rain until I fell asleep about 10:30, wind was pretty feisty, gusts to about 100 mph. Luckily any trees that might have fallen had already been taken out by Laura. No apparent additional damage to the house, even the tarps are still intact. The generator is back on duty.

Glad to hear everything is (relatively) ok.