Training to most likely or most dangerous COA?

[KEW8338]

The other important part to this is a true analysis of ML and MD and something that I bet a lot of armed Americans fail at. Big army even fails at it pretty often because the general trend is to just pick some really bad shit. MD still needs to have some component of likeliness and not just technically possible.

Then, you have to tie that analysis to you or your organization, and the specific strengths and weaknesses. Maybe the initial thought is that MD is being cornered by three guys with knives or blunt weapons because there’s a trend of that in your city and three on one is never good. But on further analysis of your skills, MD is really the lone gunman with a rifle in King Soopers because he’s thirty yards away and you run that VTAC 1-5 all the time but never shoot past 10m.


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What percentage of likeliness does it take?

ML/MD is absolutely reflective of resources, capabilities etc. Which I will circle around to the guys who were quote the "priorities" (gear, mindset etc) Your gear reflects MD, your mindset is a soft ML, your fitness is a hope for the best. So if you use those priorities, to cross level yourself, how does that rack and stack.

[KEW8338]

Tell me about it, @Wake27

The "most likely threat" quoted by a lot of people in my agency is consistently, "vehicular accident". Which isn't false, but it's not a threat/hostile action. It's a self-evident overhead risk, and a cop-out to putting in thought/planning because you're fucking tired, have an early start, and want to get the bullshit paperwork over with so some muckety-muck supervisor who doesn't even know where his gun is can check a box that his team is prepared.

See the Tongo Tongo ambush AAR, and the Army scolding itself for forcing its troops to perform onerous paperwork which causes humans to shut-down, cut-and-paste, and miss the big picture or finer details.

Exact same shit happening, we just don't wear uniforms. That was super prevalent on my last tour, thankfully this one we generally dispense with the retardery.

Might not be a threat from hostile action. But that would 100% impact mission accomplishment.

If your job is what I am guessing, the fact your biggest threat is not enemy centric, indicative you are doing your job right?

[Wake27]

What percentage of likeliness does it take?

ML/MD is absolutely reflective of resources, capabilities etc. Which I will circle around to the guys who were quote the "priorities" (gear, mindset etc) Your gear reflects MD, your mindset is a soft ML, your fitness is a hope for the best. So if you use those priorities, to cross level yourself, how does that rack and stack.

The best tactical instructor I’ve had told us that your plan is based around ML, your contingencies are based off of MD. I don’t know what the right percentage is but I think it’s safe to say over 50 - something around 70/30 or 60/40 sounds safe but at the same time, I’m not dedicated enough to actually log those percentages so at this point, it’s just a mental exercise.

As far as right priorities, I fully believe that skill and experience should be number one. I have no idea how to prioritize the rest. Life is about balance, you need all of it to be successful in a shitty situation. I 100% am lacking in skill and experience in many ways and have applied the equipment bandaid to compensate. Not the best decision, but it’s easy and better than nothing.


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[Odin Bravo One]

This horse isn’t dead yet? Fuck me.

[Suvorov]

So as a former S-2 who is seeing MDCOA and MLCOA thrown around like doobies at a DNC or BLM convention - I wonder how many here have done a thorough IPB in accordance with ATP 2-01.3 (FM 34-130 for us old farts)?

Give me an RFI if you need links to the above mentioned publications.....

[Wake27]

So as a former S-2 who is seeing MDCOA and MLCOA thrown around like doobies at a DNC or BLM convention - I wonder how many here have done a thorough IPB in accordance with ATP 2-01.3 (FM 34-130 for us old farts)?

Give me an RFI if you need links to the above mentioned publications.....

Probably very few since it’s the 2’s job...


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[Suvorov]

Probably very few since it’s the 2’s job...


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Well crap, I better get to work.......

[Wake27]

Well crap, I better get to work.......

That probably came off a little short, I more meant that hopefully it doesn’t take someone doing a full IPB to have a functional understanding of ML and MD within the context of this discussion. Though I do find them super interesting and fully support it. Sadly I think the bulk of the ones I’ve seen have been done by none MI personnel and they tend to suck.


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[TGS]

Might not be a threat from hostile action. But that would 100% impact mission accomplishment.

So is tripping over your own feet when walking, but it's not something that needs to be said. It's an overhead risk you assume every time you get out of bed.

For example, if @Wake27 is giving a brief for a convoy movement to his troops, he can mention how high the risk for a traffic accident is along a certain route during the execution segment, annotate traffic specific guidance to reduce the risk of an accident and even end the mission brief with a note about safe driving, but that doesn't mean it should be listed as EMLCOA, since it's categorically not a violent action that you're trying to hedge against.

If your job is what I am guessing, the fact your biggest threat is not enemy centric, indicative you are doing your job right?

My biggest threat is centric on hostile actors. I don't know what you're getting at.

[Suvorov]

That probably came off a little short, I more meant that hopefully it doesn’t take someone doing a full IPB to have a functional understanding of ML and MD within the context of this discussion. Though I do find them super interesting and fully support it. Sadly I think the bulk of the ones I’ve seen have been done by none MI personnel and they tend to suck.


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Well it will probably not help my cause, but I wasn’t branched MI, just thrown into the position as my last name was more similar to the threat than most of my fellow officers, plus I am a nerd.

All that said and while my post was meant in jest - I do think that everyone should conduct a basic IPB for themselves.