Biden has a 'big lead' on Trump in Polls

[LittleLebowski]

So, you expect me to argue with the site owner? I agree with the last sentence totally. It is also apparent that my moderate ass doesn't hate Obama as vehemently as you do.

My understanding is that the cash was the remnants (plus interest) of money that Iran had placed in escrow to buy military hardware before the Shah was deposed. The U.S. seized the money after the students seized the American Embassy. I was also under the impression that we were mandated by some tribunal to return the money plus interest. Additionally, my belief was that the timing of the transfer was to get the nuclear deal done.

With that understanding, and knowing full well that I may be the only one on this entire website who thought the nuke deal was a good idea, I wasn't as upset as you apparently were.

Howsoever, since reading your post I looked into the deal with more detail and it appears that although Iran has paid about 2 billion to American companies and individuals who were victims of terrorism, they are still on the hook for billions more.

Again, let me say that I was in favor of the nuke deal. I took the IAEA inspection team's assertions that Iran was complying as correct and was hoping we had kicked the can down the road for a decade or so, hopefully giving time for more moderates to filter into the Iranian government.

Based on all that, I guess I really don't fault Obama for what he did. Greater good and all that.

Re IED's, yes the son of a friend was killed by an IED when his un-uparmored HUMVEE was hit. His brain stem was damaged, they kept him on life support until my friend and his wife arrived at the hospital in Germany. At that point, IMO, it was more of a Bush unfunded war thing.

I appreciated the fact that Obama, for the most part, seemingly listened to his military advisors, more so than President Trump has. Yes, I applauded the killing of Solamani (sp?). But, again, the Bush administration had several shots at him, as well as Obama. Their reasons for not acting were discussed after the Trump administration nailed him. Were their reasons legit? IDK.

President Trump hasn't done some things the way I would have, and neither did Bush or Obama. That doesn't necessarily mean they are incompetent.

I promise that any type of argument with mods/site owner will never factor into anything site related. I'd never respect myself if I was that petty and my mods are the same way. You can disagree with me all day long, don't worry.

[Zincwarrior]

Yes LL and I disagree on politics but unlike other boards we can disagree without problems.

Mods here are still shit though.

[jh9]

The hill dog thought she had it in the bag,too. And look what happened..

This is what happened: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...are-all-right/

On average since 1972, polls in the final 21 days of presidential elections have missed the actual margins in those races by 4.6 percentage points, almost exactly matching the 4.8-point error we saw in 2016. As we tried to emphasize before the election, it didn’t take any sort of extraordinary, unprecedented polling error for Trump to defeat Clinton. An ordinary, average polling error would do — one where Trump beat his polls by just a few points in just a couple of states — and that’s the polling error we got.

The headline from this 538 article, released on 4-Nov-16
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ehind-clinton/

Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton

I can't speak to the mathphobic people at CNN who had Clinton at something comical like 99% but 538 had Trump at 1-in-3 odds to win in 2016. And given the narrow EC victory the justification for the odds being higher than everyone else's proved correct. Trump won, yes. Barely, though. If you think Trump has it in the bag this time around, remember that almost every single election since 2016 has resulted a GOP bloodbath.

• In 2016: the GOP controlled 33/50 governors mansions; today (2020) they have just barely half (26/50).
• In 2018: the GOP lost the house for the first time in almost a decade
• In 2018: the GOP lost both Alabama* and Arizona in the Senate for the first time in two and a half decades.
• In 2019: Virginia state elections, Democrats took both the House and the Senate, giving them control of both houses and the governor's mansion in Virginia for the first time since 1994

*I know Jones may be an aberration but Sinema isn't. Arizona is not the only state where the electoral calculus is changing. The polls are accurate enough. It's the analysis from buzzfeed-tier outlets like CNN that's lacking.

[DDTSGM]

I promise that any type of argument with mods/site owner will never factor into anything site related. I'd never respect myself if I was that petty and my mods are the same way. You can disagree with me all day long, don't worry.

I knew that. I should have put an emoticon next to that line.

One of the reasons that I am a site supporter.

[DDTSGM]

Do you really perceive this as being that kind of forum, or LL as being that kind of owner? Was it a lot easier to insult LL by implying that he’d banhammer you for arguing with him, than to defend your position?

No insult intended, as I explained to LL. Should have put an emoticon after that sentence.

I'm surprised that someone, having read my entire post, would assert that I was 1) afraid of being banned or 2) that I failed to explain/defend my position.

In case you think we are having an argument, it is my nature to respond to folks who directly address things at me in a question as you did. It's simply good manners.

[Borderland]

This is what happened: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...are-all-right/



The headline from this 538 article, released on 4-Nov-16
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ehind-clinton/



I can't speak to the mathphobic people at CNN who had Clinton at something comical like 99% but 538 had Trump at 1-in-3 odds to win in 2016. And given the narrow EC victory the justification for the odds being higher than everyone else's proved correct. Trump won, yes. Barely, though. If you think Trump has it in the bag this time around, remember that almost every single election since 2016 has resulted a GOP bloodbath.

• In 2016: the GOP controlled 33/50 governors mansions; today (2020) they have just barely half (26/50).
• In 2018: the GOP lost the house for the first time in almost a decade
• In 2018: the GOP lost both Alabama* and Arizona in the Senate for the first time in two and a half decades.
• In 2019: Virginia state elections, Democrats took both the House and the Senate, giving them control of both houses and the governor's mansion in Virginia for the first time since 1994

*I know Jones may be an aberration but Sinema isn't. Arizona is not the only state where the electoral calculus is changing. The polls are accurate enough. It's the analysis from buzzfeed-tier outlets like CNN that's lacking.

538 is a good site. It's the only one I use to get an accurate forecast. Like the weather, it can change pretty fast. Most of the msm polls are for idiots to salivate over while trying to sell you something.

[Zincwarrior]

538 is a good site. It's the only one I use to get an accurate forecast. Like the weather, it can change pretty fast. Most of the msm polls are for idiots to salivate over while trying to sell you something.

Real Clear Politics does a similar aggregation on multiple points and is quite good in that area.

[Totem Polar]

Both candidates are worthless as individuals. This is the honest viewpoint. You can only hope for some policies important to you. Then you have to weight the policies for the final decision about your vote.

Respectfully—because you’ve lived longer and have therefore seen more shit than me—this one probably goes beyond just policy. IMO, Trump didn’t just eke out a win in the 2-party system, he flat-out broke it. (So did AOC.) Trump, despite myriad flaws as a human personality, is doing his best to dismantle the administrative state—that’s part of why his actual work largely goes unnoticed—unless it’s by someone like LL taking note of the TVA deal, or tallying judges, or something. A vote for Biden isn’t just a vote for whatever policies his handlers put forth; it’s a vote to enhance the administrative state—possibly for good. JMO.

Moving on, as to polls, and what happened, pepperidge farm remembers what happened:




Lastly, I need one of these sweaters, first image:

[RJ]

Holy Shit.

Former Vice President Joe Biden remarked in an interview released Thursday that “unlike the African American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community.”

[blues]

Holy Shit.

Former Vice President Joe Biden remarked in an interview released Thursday that “unlike the African American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community.”

These Black gangs might have a differing viewpoint from "Hardened Artery Joe":


African-American Gangs:

Almighty Black P. Stone Nation
Almighty Vice Lord Nation
Four Corner Hustlers
Black Disciples
Black Guerrilla Family
Black Mafia
Black Mafia Family
Black Spades
Bloods
Black P. Stones
Bounty Hunter Bloods
Nine Trey Gangsters
Pirus
Sex Money Murda
United Blood Nation
Chambers Brothers
Columbia Point Dawgs
The Council
Crips
East Nashville Crips
Grape Street Watts Crips
Rollin' 30s Harlem Crips
Rollin 60's Neighborhood Crips
Venice Shoreline Crips
D.C. Blacks
Decepticons
Errol Flynns
The Family
Folk Nation
Gangster Disciples
OutLaw Gangster Disciples
Hidden Valley Kings
KUMI 415
Lucerne Street Doggz
Miami Boys
Mickey Cobras
Orchard Park Trailblazers
People Nation
Savage Nomads
Savage Skulls
Somali Outlaws
Supreme Team
Westmob
Young Boys Inc.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States


I guess they just can't all get along.