Recession imminent

[45dotACP]

Using just one random inflation calculator, that's not that bad. $325k in 2005 dollars is about $440k in 2022 dollars. Change the 2005 to 2007 (actual 15 years) and that's still $420k in today's dollars.

That $65k in price difference will likely be evaporated, plus some, in the next 6-12 months IMO.

Fair enough. They did sell it in 2021 for about 415.

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic then.

Otherwise the financial situation is pretty solid. Wife has that immigrant mentality so I expect she'll never be out of work for long, my job is essentially about as bombproof as a work situation can be. Short of nuclear war in the continental US, I'd still be expected to show up (maybe even then)

But yeah the down payment is what we have now, not considering our other savings, investments and emergency funds.

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[BehindBlueI's]

Young people have always sucked.

Every preceding generation thinks the young are lazy and entitled, and every young person thinks the generation before them is lazy, ignorant and closed minded.

And they are generally right. But some are more right than others. The current young person problem that's not the typical lazy and entitled is "anxiety". Look at how social media has fucked up older people. Imagine growing up knowing nothing else, plus your parents are in to doom porn...

[hufnagel]

Young people have always sucked.

Every preceding generation thinks the young are lazy and entitled, and every young person thinks the generation before them is lazy, ignorant and closed minded.

YPS notwithstanding, I've met some people in my field who are younger than I am and some of the hardest working nurses and CNAs I've ever met. Most of the "zoomers" I've known have such energy and enthusiasm for their work that it makes my head spin and I'd absolutely trust them with the life of my own mother.

Subsequently, the hardest new nurses to get oriented to my unit tend to be the agency nurses we've had the last few months. Again, most are experienced, level-headed pros with tons of experience and perspective,

But more so than any fresh college grad, the older nurses that suck are the absolute worst.

With a new grad, you can tell them they're wrong or that they're not managing their time well, and they'll probably agree and try to do it better.

God forbid you tell some 50 year old who has been a nurse for 20 years that they made a medication error or that they need to page the doctor or coordinate a plan to get their patient to a procedure or a scan...because you will hear a whole ass tirade of how they have been a nurse for years...yada yada...

...but they're lazy as fuck and aren't getting anything done, aren't trying to make anything happen and are lying to you in your face because you absolutely know they have not even spoken to the patients attending, let alone their consults.

But yeah, I just have to deal with that because they'll be off yelling at clouds if I so much as breathe a comment disparaging their work ethic, so I have to coddle these old birds and tiptoe around their ego.

The only plus here is I look so fucking old now that people think I'm a gen X'er and I get to laugh at how stupid millenials are too.

It ain't an age thing, it's a competence thing. You either got it or you don't.

But anyways I fail to see how this applies to the recession that we are most definitely in. Prices of food, gas and 9mm ball being so high just makes me sad.

Hoping to buy a house gents. Good idea? Bad idea in this economy? I figure mortgage rates can always drop and I can refinance. My wife's credit score and mine are both 780ish and we have nearly 70k for a down payment. She accepted a job making 90k and I make about the same. Is this a terrible idea? We intend to buy next year. Are still saving and still locked in out lease in our current apartment.

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This is coming from nothing more than my specific experience:
Unless you have a Compelling Reason to buy a house at this point (ex: children and a good school, relatives that are potentially moving in or are close that need your extended support, etc.) I'd personally live as small as possible while renting, bank everything possible, and focus on buying your (hopefully) Forever Home in your first shot. While buying a home has been in the long term a sound investment, there's no guarantee of that being the case.

[MickAK]

.
Hoping to buy a house gents. Good idea? Bad idea in this economy? I figure mortgage rates can always drop and I can refinance. My wife's credit score and mine are both 780ish and we have nearly 70k for a down payment. She accepted a job making 90k and I make about the same. Is this a terrible idea? We intend to buy next year. Are still saving and still locked in out lease in our current apartment.

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I think it's always a good idea, economy be damned, provided it lowers your stress instead of raising it. I don't think there's any amount of equity or financial gain that makes up for some of the stress I've seen my age group peers go through over a box to live in. It's a house. It's for living in. Find one you like and can afford and go for it when you like it.

To me community matters more than profits in a recession. A strong community will be an ok place to live when everyone is broke. A weak community will have you looking over your shoulder every minute. I think there's a lot of gentrifying pioneers that may regret their choice in the next couple of years. Not because of where they bought but because of their attitude towards their community if you could even use the word.

[karandom]

In that article Rosenberg is saying the Fed will be hawkish with rate hikes and hike fast enough to destroy demand and cause a recession. This is not likely. The Fed increased rates by 25 bps which was widely expected and signal up to 6 more hikes. This is now priced into the market. If the Fed raises in line with expectations it is unlikely to dry up demand to the point of a recession. Hopefully the Fed realizes that current inflation is a supply issue and hawkish monetary policy is not going to impact it. They will likely hike to what the market is pricing in as it gives them ammunition to cut rates when we do hit another recessionary point.

I have no idea if we are heading into a recession, but I disagree with the author that Fed policy will lead us there.

I just wanted to quote myself from back in March and point out I was very wrong. The current Fed path is driving us right into a nasty recession.

I hope I am also wrong now. If I remember, I'll quote myself in 6-8 months and see what is going on.

[Borderland]

Here we are about 6 months from the last post here. So how are things going with the US economy?

Warren Buffett's firm Berkshire Hathaway has sold billions of dollars' worth of U.S. stocks in the first three months of the year, raising concerns among investors over the state of the slowing U.S. economy.

Warren Buffet's dump of billions of dollars of U.S. stocks indicates that he correctly anticipates that a U.S. recession will make landfall in the near future," Hanke, who served on former President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, told Newsweek.

In the past year, the U.S. money supply, measured by M2, has contracted by 4.1 percent. This flip from expansion to contraction is the steepest adjustment in money-supply growth in postwar U.S. history," he said.

M2 is the U.S. Federal Reserve's estimate of the total supply of money in the country's economy. This includes all of the cash people have plus all of the money deposited in checking and savings accounts, as well as other short-term saving vehicles such as certificates of deposit.

With the usual lag of 6-18 months, economic activity will take a turn for the worse. When a recession is right around the corner, Buffett knows that cash is king, particularly when he can earn a decent rate of interest on it," Hanke said.

https://www.newsweek.com/warren-buff...conomy-1799324

If WB is as good at investing as many believe he is, this is the dead canary in the coal mine.

[jh9]

S&P 500 is up almost 5% over the last six months. Berkshire Hathaway has $948 billion in total assets. This represents liquidating 1.3% of them.

Let me know when Buffet sells off everything and buys a bunker. Until then converting 1.3% of his under-performing assets into cash (which is paying a real interest rate for the first time in several years) isn't necessarily what you might think it is. I think the glib response is "people have predicted 149 of the last 3 recessions." There will be another one, eventually. Maybe soon. Maybe not. But if you were out of the market the last six months holding 100% cash because IT'S COMING you missed out on 5%. 8% YTD.

[GJM]

The coming recession has been 30-60 days off for the last three years.

[awp_101]

The coming recession has been 30-60 days off for the last three years.

The oldest boy has his MBA, follows all the conservative talking heads and my wife thinks he’s the smartest person in the room so she follows most of his “advice”.

Ever since I mentioned I was ready to move on from my current job 6-8 months ago he’s had my wife convinced I need to stay because a terrible recession is “on the way” and the last ones hired are the first ones to go.

[farscott]

S&P 500 is up almost 5% over the last six months. Berkshire Hathaway has $948 billion in total assets. This represents liquidating 1.3% of them.

Let me know when Buffet sells off everything and buys a bunker. Until then converting 1.3% of his under-performing assets into cash (which is paying a real interest rate for the first time in several years) isn't necessarily what you might think it is. I think the glib response is "people have predicted 149 of the last 3 recessions." There will be another one, eventually. Maybe soon. Maybe not. But if you were out of the market the last six months holding 100% cash because IT'S COMING you missed out on 5%. 8% YTD.

Agreed that predicting when a recession will occur is not easy as the economy can be irrational for much longer than it seems like it should be able to be. Not sure I agree on holding cash being bad. I have a few I-Bonds that paid about 7% for a year with no risk and the last 28-day T-Bill I bought yesterday yielded more than 6%. I am selling the I-Bonds in August (lose the last three months of interest since held less than five years) because the current I-bond inflation rate (at 3.38%) is less than the 28-day, 13-week, and 17-week T-Bill rates. There is a 0.4% fixed rate for the current I-Bond (till end of October), so a new I-Bond will yield 3.78% for six months. The question is what will the inflation rate for the I-Bond be in November. That is based on the reported inflation numbers over the next five months plus the data we just got today. All of the above is US Treasury debt, which usually -- not when debt limit breach is an issue -- is the safest investment in the world. Corporate debt and other sovereign debt can return multiples of the above.

Whole point is that debt markets can provide returns as high as equity markets, depending upon risk tolerance.