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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #981
    Member Earlymonk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OlongJohnson View Post
    Thanks for that. Here's another sobering one from the same source about (not) waiting for gov't officials to act:
    https://quillette.com/2020/03/03/dea...tury-pathogen/

    Thought the particularly salient bits were these (granted these are business guys and not necessarily MDs):

    ...in an existential crisis, decisions need to be made on the basis of incomplete evidence. Measures implemented too early are deemed “alarmist,” if implemented too late, “negligent.”

    The World Health Organisation (WHO) has recommended that early robust control measures are the key to saving lives and halting transmission of COVID-19. Worryingly, Robert Nelson, Managing Director and co-founder of ARCH Venture Partners, a biotech venture capital firm located in Seattle, San Francisco, and Chicago, has told Quillette that, in some places in the United States, it may already be too late:

    These bureaucrats and politicians who think panic is lines at Costco and angry parents when a school is closed, may find out that panic is when you are taking mom to the emergency room and she dies in the parking lot because no one can see her. I hope this does not happen and we get lucky, but all signs point the other direction.

    ...As a venture capitalist, Nelson’s job is to make bets on the future. With expertise in biomedicine his firm has invested in over 100 companies, 27 of which are valued in excess of $1 billion. On COVID-19, he said:

    The HUGE error now in [the] USA is being made by state and local health departments—they fear panic, so they are afraid to cancel public events and close schools. They are still waiting for symptomatic cases to act when we know there is huge asymptomatic spread. This is folly, and the expansion in places like Seattle will likely be uncontrollable. We must take more decisive action at state and local levels to immediately close schools and large gatherings and use social distancing, in order to flatten the curve. The reason that is so urgent is there is no way for our system to handle the critical and acute care burden unless we flatten the curve.

    Several CEOs in the tech industry are not waiting for local government leadership to implement self-distancing and are taking their own pre-emptive measures.

  2. #982
    The R in F.A.R.T RevolverRob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caballoflaco View Post
    As testing actually begins our official numbers here in los Estados Unidos have tripled since last Monday from 107 to 340 as of this morning.

    Probably a repost, but to keep people from having to search the thread John Hopkins has an interactive map here:

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
    That is a great resource. Thanks for linking this one. The spatial representation here is really useful for getting a sense of the global spread. For instance, I'm not surprised there are a number of cases in Canada, yet they are basically unreported (because there are zero deaths).

    Quote Originally Posted by OlongJohnson View Post
    Yesterday at lunch time, I walked about 40 feet from the door of my office to the door of my truck. The giant live oak in the parking lot reminded me I wanted to be wearing a mask to keep the pollen out of my lungs. Walked back inside. Going up the stairs, my eyes started to itch. Coming back down the stairs with an N95 on, my lungs hurt. Yeah, I could use a few more of those things in the next four months than I have on hand currently. They do protect against pollen, and there's a frack-ton of it around here. Consistently wearing them may even help me (and my lungs in particular) be in better shape if/when I'm infected. Houston as of last night had xxx confirmed cases. Casual conversation with the public (it comes up when you're walking around with an N95 on your face) reveals people being robustly denialist about the risks (while hoarding water, hand sanitizer and alcohol), which isn't good.

    Any additional advice for a very react-y person would be appreciated.

    ETCorrect...

    https://quillette.com/2020/03/06/don...ovid-19-tests/ (linked several pages ago)
    According to the map that is linked above - Egypt has 15 confirmed cases, with 14 active....

  3. #983
    Site Supporter
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    Mar 2011
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    West Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by blues View Post
    You, your fiancee and baby will be in my thoughts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    Congrats! First kid?

    Wishing you and the mom the best for a safe and uneventful delivery.
    Quote Originally Posted by scw2 View Post
    Congrats and wishing for the best outcome for you and your family!

    I don't know what the most recent data suggests, but I believe preliminary data in early to mid Feb suggested there didn't appear to be any adverse effects for pregnancies. Caveat that obviously they were dealing with a short time period and small sample size.
    Thanks guys. It's our first. We tried for 12 years, pretty much officially gave up, and a month later found out she was pregnant. It's been a trip.

    There's still not much data available. The best I can find is that she's likely more susceptible to getting fairly sick if she catches it, but that goes for about any illness. It does look like it shouldn't be a big issue for the baby. I'm trying to get her to reduce her work hours anyway, and I read last night that in Seattle they are pushing for pregnant women to stay home so I'm putting that bug in her ear. When the first case pops up here I'm hoping she'll take time off work. She's more than a bit stubborn though.

    We're in childbirth class right now and lunch is almost over. Gotta go find more caffeine...

  4. #984
    Abducted by Aliens Borderland's Avatar
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    Feb 2019
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    Camano Island WA.
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenn E. Meyer View Post
    Baylor doc says older people should stay home. The virus is the angel of death for older people. Oh, dear - I'm going to the store. Wish me luck. No you can't have my gear.
    Got any sxs shotguns. LC Smith, Parker, Fox?
    In the P-F basket of deplorables.

  5. #985
    Site Supporter Maple Syrup Actual's Avatar
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    Northern Fur Seal Team Six
    Quote Originally Posted by RevolverRob View Post
    That is a great resource. Thanks for linking this one. The spatial representation here is really useful for getting a sense of the global spread. For instance, I'm not surprised there are a number of cases in Canada, yet they are basically unreported (because there are zero deaths).



    According to the map that is linked above - Egypt has 15 confirmed cases, with 14 active....
    We're barely testing anyone, it's a lot like the approach the US is taking: if you have pictures of yourself licking public water fountains in Wuhan and the photos feature a newspaper or other proof of date and you're on death's door and you can prove you're related to someone who died of it already, we'll test you. Otherwise it's really unlikely you have it because it's exceptionally rare - after all we've only had a few positive test results - and therefore you don't have it.

    Of course we have tons and tons of mainland chinese in Vancouver - I would think half a million at the very least - and there was lots of travel back and forth for the lunar new year so the number of cases is almost certainly much, much higher than reported. But the fatalities, if they were occurring in any kind of pattern like a sudden surge of deaths at a nursing home, would be detected and reported.

    So my guess is that we have an unreported outbreak with mild symptoms. Just a guess, though.

  6. #986

  7. #987
    First case confirmed here. Passenger was on one of those cruise ships.

    And the State authorities said that they did not know which airline the person flew on, getting back to Honolulu, but since the person didn't show symptoms, there was "no risk".

    Yes, after a month of reports of asymptomatic transmission, the phrase, "no risk" was used. And wouldn't you think, that if you had ONE confirmed case on your hands, you'd know EVERYTHING about that case, before holding your press conference? It's not like were trying to track thousands of separate cases.

  8. #988
    After visiting our local Wal Mart I'd like to take a moment to thank all the hysterics and worthless media for perpetuating all this nonsense.

  9. #989
    Quote Originally Posted by scjbash View Post
    Thanks guys. It's our first. We tried for 12 years, pretty much officially gave up, and a month later found out she was pregnant. It's been a trip.

    There's still not much data available. The best I can find is that she's likely more susceptible to getting fairly sick if she catches it, but that goes for about any illness. It does look like it shouldn't be a big issue for the baby. I'm trying to get her to reduce her work hours anyway, and I read last night that in Seattle they are pushing for pregnant women to stay home so I'm putting that bug in her ear. When the first case pops up here I'm hoping she'll take time off work. She's more than a bit stubborn though.

    We're in childbirth class right now and lunch is almost over. Gotta go find more caffeine...
    You guys will do great, wife and I had similar trouble with getting pregnant (not as long of a journey as you) but made our first something special. Just remember how long you had to wait for your bundle of joy when you are up at 3am and youd do anything to get some sleep [emoji1787]

    Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

  10. #990
    Site Supporter ccmdfd's Avatar
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    Feb 2011
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    Southeastern NC
    CNN now reporting the number of us cases is 377.

    To me the big thing with this virus is the two-week time frame where you are contagious but completely asymptomatic

    My other favorite hobby is astrophotography. When I talk about it to people I have to remind them that when they look at the stars in the night sky what they are seeing is not real time. That light is at least hundreds if not thousands of years old. Right now the big story in astronomy, astrophotography is the fact that the star Betelgeuse is dimming. This dimming actually occurred over 600 years ago and we're just now seeing it.

    Likewise when we look at a map of current coronavirus infections, what we are seeing is actually what the picture was two weeks ago. We won't know what today's Outlook actually looks like for another couple of weeks.

    cc

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