Untrained versus trained

[David Armstrong]

I can maybe throw a little light on this due to being an old-timer in this business. Not that long ago firearms training was pretty much non-existent unless you had been in the military or law enforcement, and as it related to handguns even the military didn't provide that much for most as they focused on the rifle. So if the idea that "JUST as many untrained people fail in defensive shootings as win" was accurate I would think I would have seen somewhat similar numbers between winners and losers of defensive pistol encounters back in the 70s and 80s. I did not, the numbers were not even close. IME the untrained person won't always win, but they will win a lot more than they lose. I qualify that with one caveat, however...if the BG loses, does he count as an "untrained-fail" or do we only count the numbers as they relate to the GG, in which case we have the problem of one of the more common incidents, BG vs BG shootings.

[ToddG]

We need to encourage more BGs to shoot other BGs... for the data.

[fn/form]

Even assuming the original premise of the thread is true, "... JUST as many untrained people fail in defensive shootings as win." - have we even established what we are defining as "trained" and "untrained"?

How about having the OP's converser state their data for the position they have taken?

I'll make a play for a more serious type of answer, with some evidence too.

I've been collecting reports of violent crime from the local paper's crime blotter for the last 4 months or so...

It might be easier and more accurate to contact the Records department for your local LE agency. That's what they're there for. They should understand how to work their software and generate reports you request. Or at least have the most recent Uniform Crime Report available. Most large agencies have put everything but the last year or two online. You can search by address, zip code, type of crime, etc.

If the blotter for your local LE is anything like mine, it doesn't report half of what happens.

[TR675]

It might be easier and more accurate to contact the Records department for your local LE agency. That's what they're there for. They should understand how to work their software and generate reports you request. Or at least have the most recent Uniform Crime Report available. Most large agencies have put everything but the last year or two online. You can search by address, zip code, type of crime, etc.

If the blotter for your local LE is anything like mine, it doesn't report half of what happens.

I don't believe the Records dept. gives out narratives, and that's really what I'm interested in more than the pure stats. My local PD puts data online, but it doesn't help for my purposes. I'm aware the blotter doesn't report everything out there, but again, I'm more interested in anecdotes than pure data.

[fn/form]

I don't believe the Records dept. gives out narratives, and that's really what I'm interested in more than the pure stats. My local PD puts data online, but it doesn't help for my purposes. I'm aware the blotter doesn't report everything out there, but again, I'm more interested in anecdotes than pure data.

Are you looking for crime novels or stats?

Narratives for incidents under investigation should not available either way, but a summary might be available. The most significant "public" details will be found in arrest/warrant affidavits, when filed. Almost all are public record once the magistrate signs off. At some point after resolution the case details do become public record. Juvenile cases and civil litigation can affect the actual availability. Example: Columbine. Over 10k pages of statements, etc. investigation pages can be located on the 'net. Yet many materials (such as the perp home videos) are still part of civil litigation and not yet available.

With most modern records management software there are classifications made when you fill out the offense report. Simple checkboxes or generic pull-down menus. For example, was the suspect armed with a firearm, lethal cutting instrument, needle, etc. Accurate reports can be generated for the offenses, time periods and locations in question--all without revealing individual case information. If you're after stats, it is more accurate than a blotter record.

The local LE records division should be available to answer your queries for what they are able to do for you. You may be able to get info relatively quickly. For some reports you may need to file a formal Open Records request. It usually involves compensation to the LE agency for the time/materials required to generate the report.

[TR675]

I understand what you're getting at and it doesn't fit with my goals.

I'm interested in a number of things, including: (1) where does most of the violent crime happen in my city (and there aren't really any surprises there), (2) what does the "typical" violent crime in my area look like/involve, and (3) how likely are any of those violent crimes (a) to happen to me and (b) if so, could the outcome be changed by me having a firearm present?

To get somewhat decent answers to these questions I need more than just statistics. Many violent crimes where someone gets hurt or held-up are high-enough profile around here to warrant at least a blip on the local crime blog, and those posts usually give somewhere between some and a lot of background information on the victim, perp, weapon used, and circumstances. I don't want to be bothered with FOI requests; I'm a busy guy with zero desire to follow up on those things - hence my interest in easily obtainable information. If it isn't 100% complete, well, that doesn't bother me hugely because missing a couple of incidents isn't going to affect my conclusions one way or the other...

[SecondsCount]

A recent incident where the homeowners gun was taken away

A homeowner confronted a burglar Tuesday and fired a shot at him, but the burglar took away his weapon and ran off, police say.

[Tom Givens]

I’m late to the party on this, as I have been out of the country the past two weeks. Here are some observations, in no particular order.

Rangemaster students’ success rate (at least on events I know about) is 61/0/2 for 63 incidents. That’s 61 clear victories, zero losses and 2 forfeits. The two forfeits were people who died as a result of not being armed on The Big Day. Both were killed in separate street robberies.

Of the 61 students who won, only 3 were injured, and all recovered from those injuries. Based on my interviews with the winners, I believe the two MOST important factors are:

1. Having your damn gun on you when the event occurs, and
2. Being willing to use it to save your life.

Everything else-- gun model, caliber, ammo choice and Yes, even amount of training, seems to be a distant third after these primary two. Three of the shooters in our group were trained to our instructor level, four or five more to what I would call competency, and the rest had only had an eight hour carry permit course.
One of the things we stress at ALL training levels is the need to actually carry the gun daily, as one simply cannot make an appointment for an emergency. An emergency, in this context, is a sudden, unforeseen crisis in which one’s life is in immediate mortal danger. The key words are “sudden, unforeseen”, so making carrying a handgun a daily routine assures that it will be there when needed. I believe that because we stress this heavily, our students tend to be armed, and thus win when attacked.

I believe a big factor is the Bad Guy’s training, education and life experience. Most BG’s go through their entire careers without ever running into an armed citizen on the street. Only about 4% of the US population has some kind of carry permit, and I’d bet less than 1% of them actually carry on a routine, daily basis. So, when a BG confronts a citizen who is actually armed and produces his weapon, the resulting mental lag time for the BG allows even an untrained or minimally trained defender a golden opportunity. The one who starts the fight has an enormous advantage. In this context, the BG started the incident, but the student starts the fight. This comes as a total shock to the typical Bad Guy.

This is not to say that more advanced training is not desirable. Several of my students have been in rather difficult extreme cases and still won. Fortunately, they had training beyond a permit course.

[SouthNarc]

Been waiting for you to chime in! Forgot you were OCONUS.

[TCinVA]

Excellent input, Tom. Thank you.