Thoughts on primer price trends?

[GyroF-16]

It seems that primer prices are falling. I can find GINEX primers for $0.055/ea and CCI for $0.065/ea online (before shipping and HAZMAT).
Now, that’s still 2.5x pre-pandemic pricing… but much better than a year ago.

Any thoughts, predictions on trends going forward?
I’d like to stock up before the 2024 election starts making ammunition prices crazy, but don’t want to overpay. I’ve got just over a year’s worth of consumption on hand, so will definitely want to buy in the next 12 months.

Have we hit a plateau in falling primer prices?

[Hambo]

That's not bad, but it's not good enough to make me buy now. I can buy 9mm ammo shipped for $0.26.

[revchuck38]

Ammo prices seem to have stabilized at ~30% higher than pre-pandemic. I don't know if primer prices will hit that level, they do seem to be available and the prices are falling but not at the same rate. I guess we'll have to see if the producers maintain production or reduce it to keep prices higher.

ETA: I have enough primers for about a year's worth of 9x19 and .38. If the prices stay elevated, I may have to switch to .41/.44./.45 ACP since I have almost a full case of LPs.

[358156hp]

It they're available, and somewhat affordable I'd suggest replenishing your supplies now instead of later. We have another election looming on the horizon and the panic cycle could easily start up again without having recovered from the last round. Alternatively, I'd get a head start on stacking ammo away. Go ahead and call me a doomer, but I've seen many of these cycles before. Buy what you need before you really need it. This goes for food as well.

[GyroF-16]

It they're available, and somewhat affordable I'd suggest replenishing your supplies now instead of later. We have another election looming on the horizon and the panic cycle could easily start up again without having recovered from the last round. Alternatively, I'd get a head start on stacking ammo away. Go ahead and call me a doomer, but I've seen many of these cycles before. Buy what you need before you really need it. This goes for food as well.

Oh, I get it - I’ve been through several cycles of ammo scarcity. The stash of loaded ammo is taken care of.
I reload for practice and match pistol ammo, as well as the satisfaction the process gives me. Also to allow use of 300 BLK at a reasonable price.
I’m well stocked on projectiles and powder. With the prices I bought the last batch at, primers are the singe most expensive component of my 9mm loads.
I’m just trying to “time the market”, as I don’t NEED primers yet.
I’m inclined to monitor for the next month or two to see the trends. I’m just wondering if anyone here has insights on those trends.
A sale that offered free HAZMAT could also tip the scales for me, as that could save 10-15% off the total cost for 10,000 primers in a single order.
Anyone know who offers the lowest HAZMAT fees?

[JCN]

Oh, I get it - I’ve been through several cycles of ammo scarcity. The stash of loaded ammo is taken care of.
I reload for practice and match pistol ammo, as well as the satisfaction the process gives me. Also to allow use of 300 BLK at a reasonable price.
I’m well stocked on projectiles and powder. With the prices I bought the last batch at, primers are the singe most expensive component of my 9mm loads.
I’m just trying to “time the market”, as I don’t NEED primers yet.
I’m inclined to monitor for the next month or two to see the trends. I’m just wondering if anyone here has insights on those trends.
A sale that offered free HAZMAT could also tip the scales for me, as that could save 10-15% off the total cost for 10,000 primers in a single order.
Anyone know who offers the lowest HAZMAT fees?

You could consider splitting the market and buying some now and buying some later. It protects you from some of the risk.

Pretty much everything is more expensive than pre-pandemic to manufacture and transport so I'm not sure how much lower things can get.

But at least you know that you can increase your dry fire over live by 10% to make up some of the cost (not kidding).

[mmc45414]

I do not think we are bargain shopping yet. We went through a long time when if you saw a primer you had to buy it. I paid HazMat on 1k a couple times, why? Because I wanted the damn primers. Then you could buy 5k, now I am pretty sure you could buy 10k, or more, if you wanted to. And we are discussing them being routinely available, at a price a bit more than double. I do not shoot that much compared to some others, but I sorta think if I do not have 10k, and if there are some sitting on a shelf, at the going rate, and I do not need to pay HazMat, I am going to snag a couple thousand. I figure going forward 10k on hand will be my baseline, fewer than that and I will be watching out. That way if the double again (from here) I can ride for a while.

Reality is I do not want to ever pay $115 for primers again, but $50 is not going to stop me from enjoying what I enjoy, I probably only have ~20 more years to enjoy shooting.

[GyroF-16]

I do not think we are bargain shopping yet. We went through a long time when if you saw a primer you had to buy it. I paid HazMat on 1k a couple times, why? Because I wanted the damn primers. Then you could buy 5k, now I am pretty sure you could buy 10k, or more, if you wanted to. And we are discussing them being routinely available, at a price a bit more than double. I do not shoot that much compared to some others, but I sorta think if I do not have 10k, and if there are some sitting on a shelf, at the going rate, and I do not need to pay HazMat, I am going to snag a couple thousand. I figure going forward 10k on hand will be my baseline, fewer than that and I will be watching out. That way if the double again (from here) I can ride for a while.

Reality is I do not want to ever pay $115 for primers again, but $50 is not going to stop me from enjoying what I enjoy, I probably only have ~20 more years to enjoy shooting.

Preach it, brother…
I’m with you- if I could buy primers off the shelf for $0.65/ea + local tax, I’d be all over it.
Unfortunately, locally it’s $0.95/ea, and online it’s $400-450/5k, which is upwards of $0.08/ea.
I’ve already paid $0.95/ea shipped for my last purchase a year or so ago. And the latest offers are only marginally better.
I go through 5-6k a year, and have about 7k on hand.

I’m just wondering if the downward trend will continue.

[GyroF-16]

You could consider splitting the market and buying some now and buying some later. It protects you from some of the risk.

Pretty much everything is more expensive than pre-pandemic to manufacture and transport so I'm not sure how much lower things can get.

But at least you know that you can increase your dry fire over live by 10% to make up some of the cost (not kidding).

Copy- I’ve never really thought of primers in terms of dollar cost averaging.

Thing is, I’m going to buy in quantities of 5-10k, and would like to only pay HAZMAT shipping one time, as that dramatically drives up the per-unit cost. That leads me to want to make one large purchase when the market is right.

[mmc45414]

$50 is not going to stop me from enjoying what I enjoy, I probably only have ~20 more years to enjoy shooting.

I checked the math on this, and I probably only have more like 10-15yrs to really enjoy shooting. If I pay $40 more than a box of primers is worth, at my pace that is about $8wk. Not that I want to pay that, but I am going to pay what it takes to get to the range. Now the new normal is more like $65, so I am probably going to snag some when I see them, if I get up to 20k I will quit buying. If in our wildest imagination primers ever got back down to $35 and I had a bunch of primers I paid $65 for I would be spending an extra $15mo for about 4 years. It pisses us off since it is double, but it really is only $15.