@JCN late last year on my first time out with a Glock slide and RDS on loan from GJM, in shooting a string that was pretty quick for me but not predictive by any means, I saw the dot recoil high and to the left and was able to immediately correct my grip and the rest of the string were just straight vertical "stutters". So yeah I think I'm tracking (no pun intended).
It was way more explicit than irons.
“Remember, being healthy is basically just dying as slowly as possible,” Ricky Gervais
Trying to conceptualize "predictive transitions," can you elaborate on that a bit?Originally Posted by GJM
This is a great point. Predictive actions are required when things happen faster than our brains can react to make our muscles do something.
A typical transition of 0.3s+ involves 1) look at the next target, 2) move the gun, 3) confirm the sights/dot have arrived on target (stable or streak), 4) break the shot.
On very fast transitions of <0.2, there isn't time to confirm before breaking the shot, so we have to predict where the sights/dot will be in the future. Note that this doesn't mean sweeping through the targets and trying to time the shots. Very fast transitions can still involve slowing/stopping the gun on each target.
Last edited by Clusterfrack; 01-27-2023 at 12:06 PM.
“There is no growth in the comfort zone.”--Jocko Willink
"You can never have too many knives." --Joe Ambercrombie
On fast transitions I’ve found that I will use something like the edge of a target in a simiilar way that racers have braking or acceleration markers. Ie my sights/dot look good when they’re crossing my marker I can keep pulling the trigger. This is something we have to figure out on our own based on our own vision and speed abilities.
I’m going to disagree again. The cues I’m picking up on a fast close transition versus a farther one are the same.
0.2 before arriving, I’m calculating where I think the gun will be 0.2 seconds later.
It’s what the neural studies are showing. I’m picking up but actually calculating trajectory early.
So on a wide transition, I’m going fast… but my braking zone and decel into the target is the same in the last 0.2.
So instead of this:
A typical transition of 0.3s+ involves 1) look at the next target, 2) move the gun, 3) confirm the sights/dot have arrived on target (stable or streak), 4) break the shot.
What I’m doing is
1. Look at the next target.
2. Move the gun in a predictable way.
3. Identify decel zone before arriving.
4. GLANCE AT DOT in decel zone to confirm decel rate (this was the part you didn’t realize you were doing on wide transitions but it’s critical)
5. With the decel rate locked in and BEFORE THE DOT IS ON TARGET, start trigger prep
6. Break shot as dot crosses threshold. Because I judged and timed it to coincide. Like hitting a pitched baseball.
Terminal phase is still predictive in the same way.
Actually I think we agree--at least in your example. There are often predictive components, like knowing when to put on the brakes.
There are also some transitions where a more stable sight picture is required, and we need to confirm the sights before breaking the shot.
“There is no growth in the comfort zone.”--Jocko Willink
"You can never have too many knives." --Joe Ambercrombie
That makes sense and something I believe happens automatically for me on hoser arrays with short transition distances between targets. I can't see it working in most scenarios, especially at distances beyond 7-10 yards w/out inviting plenty of errors.
The real world application of predictive transitions isn't the speed in which the shot goes off but the increased situational awareness of what is happening in your peripheral.
Lots of people train for a guy getting out of a car behind you and coming up to do you harm. A guy might be getting out of the passenger seat to do you harm as well or just trying to unass the situation in the direction that seems natural to him. Practicing predictive transitions isn't just about getting a shot on as quickly as possible. It's about learning to see and assess better at speed.
So spending more time with irons today and trying to figure out how the vision is playing into prediction.
This was with an iron sight 1911 at ten yards shooting doubles at 0.20-21 splits, target focus.
I could clearly see and track the front iron on doubles for each shot. I was using separate sight pictures for each shot.
Using it more like a dot now that I know what I'm looking for.
Cleaning the soot off the front fiber helped too, lol.
Predictive vs reactive is confusing terminology for people I think.
If .2 is the limit of reaction time then basically all of shooting is done predictively yet shooters are relying on vision even at speeds under .2, which is reactive.
It seems very confusing.
Makeup shots are reactive, but Christian Sailer does them sub .2. So is he reacting or predicting?
Confusing to my simple mind.
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