Long-Term Effects of the Ammo Shortage

[okie john]

We’ve got a lot of industry watchers here, so I want to float an idea.

Both World Wars halted production of non-military ammo, and afterwards, a lot of once-standard cartridges were allowed to die. COVID recently halted ammo production, giving ammo makers the same opportunity to kill slow sellers and streamline production.

It’s easy to find .223/5.56, 6.5 Creed, and .308/7.26. That makes sense. The 30-30, 30-06, 300 WM, and several other classics are in shorter supply (at least where I live) but I think they'll be back next year.

I suspect that short/fat families (WSM, WSSM, SAUM, etc.) will die quickly. In their places, I’d bet on the 350 Legend and the 6.5 Creedmoor in rifles, plus maybe the 270 Westerner, 277 Fury, the 6 Creedmoor, and maybe the 6.5 PRC. The 35 Whelen will soldier on now that the definition of “primitive” cartridges has been expanded to include it.

I also think that most handgun cartridges except the 9x19, 38 Special, 357 Magnum, 40 S&W, 44 Magnum, and 45 ACP, are at risk of becoming handloader-only or boutique items. The 30 Super Carry may twitch on for a few years before it ascends to its rightful place beside the 45 GAP and 41 Action Express.

Thoughts?


Okie John

[Suvorov]

I agree in large part. The 10mm seems to be experiencing a resurgence and I’d say it might soldier on longer than the 40 cal it spawned.

[JonInWA]

.38 Special and .357 magnum finally seems to be coming available is decent amounts, with prices approaching reasonable. While I personally like .357 SIG, I tend to agree that it is/will become a boutique (and expensive) cartridge.

The lesson learned is that it's certainly imperative that one has adequate quantities of cartridges on hand prior to catastrophic events occurring.

Best, Jon

[Joe Mac]

I stacked 9mm very deep when it was cheap, and was able to ride out the shortage without buying any practice ammo. I'm now running low, and just paid $329 for a case of AE 124 that I would've gotten for around $200 just a few years ago. I'll burn through that case in a couple of months, and I'm trying to decide if now is the new "cheap", and I should buy a lot, or...?

[MichaelD]

I stacked 9mm very deep when it was cheap, and was able to ride out the shortage without buying any practice ammo. I'm now running low, and just paid $329 for a case of AE 124 that I would've gotten for around $200 just a few years ago. I'll burn through that case in a couple of months, and I'm trying to decide if now is the new "cheap", and I should buy a lot, or...?

Nope... $15/box of 50: https://www.ammoshoponline.com/shop/...ping-over-149/

Also, $14.59/box of 50: https://normashooting.com/shop/norma...aining-qty-50/

They've had better deals than that, too. I keep seeing under $300 a case through SGAmmo.com, as well.

[Suvorov]

Nope... $15/box of 50: https://www.ammoshoponline.com/shop/...ping-over-149/

Also, $14.59/box of 50: https://normashooting.com/shop/norma...aining-qty-50/

They've had better deals than that, too. I keep seeing under $300 a case through SGAmmo.com, as well.

Freedom has it under $14 for new ammo, often with free shipping. https://www.freedommunitions.com/9mm...-rn-new-1.html

[4RNR]

I stacked 9mm very deep when it was cheap, and was able to ride out the shortage without buying any practice ammo. I'm now running low, and just paid $329 for a case of AE 124 that I would've gotten for around $200 just a few years ago. I'll burn through that case in a couple of months, and I'm trying to decide if now is the new "cheap", and I should buy a lot, or...?

The new cheap is always now. Russian ammo is about to stop permanently. Other importers aren't as plentiful or as cheap. Dems are about to go hard on gun control after new years, and that will effect everything, again!

I'd also be looking at the not so obvious things, like parts, if I were you.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[45dotACP]

Freedom has it under $14 for new ammo, often with free shipping. https://www.freedommunitions.com/9mm...-rn-new-1.html

Is freedoms quality still terrible?

I kept getting underpowered rounds bordering in squibs with a lot of their stuff and stopped using them altogether.

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

[guymontag]

I could see it, unknown political landscape and supply chain issue/labor shortage leading to manufacturer consolidation.

On that note, I’m beginning to sort through range brass again for 9MM, and I sincerely hope 380 dies a quick and painful death.

[camel]

Is freedoms quality still terrible?

I kept getting underpowered rounds bordering in squibs with a lot of their stuff and stopped using them altogether.

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

Last month I went to a friends range as a visitor with him. While cleaning up the bay we waited for we noted several boxes of freedom in the trash. With 2 boxes that were left ammo in them with obvious signs of failure to ignite on the primer. Iircc it’s was 6.
Not that there’s an ammo bucket in the bay for such things. But it’s a data point