Chip making in China canceled

[TGS]

How far back does the Biden Crime Family go?

Reminder: Thread is not in Politics. If you want to bitch about Joe, go to the correct section for it.

[Joe in PNG]

From Insty: China dumps dud chips on Russia, Moscow media moans

The failure rate of semiconductors shipped from China to Russia has increased by 1,900 percent in recent months, according to Russian national business daily Коммерсантъ (Kommersant).

Quoting an anonymous source, Kommersant states that before Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine the defect rate in imported silicon was two percent. Since that war commenced, Russian manufacturers have apparently faced 40 percent failure rates.

Even a two percent defect rate is sub-optimal, because products made of many components can therefore experience considerable quality problems. Forty percent failure rates mean supplies are perilously close to being unfit for purpose.

Interesting, if true.

[littlejerry]

All seriousness aside, kind of, it looks like General MacArthur was completely correct in 1950 and the general was unjustly fired by Truman. We should have crossed the Yalu river then and solved the CCP problem because just like MacArthur said the problem would be harder to solve later.

There will definitely be costs but I think it will seamlessly be consumed by the competitive technology market. I don't think a short term 5 or 10% cost increase is going to stymy technology growth or inhibit market expansion. Just my 2 cents. Bonus, the American economy and American friendly economies will benefit. Priceless.

5-10% is wishful thinking. I've been involved in cost studies for consumer goods made in China vs. Mexico. More like factor of 2 for those products.

[medmo]

5-10% is wishful thinking. I've been involved in cost studies for consumer goods made in China vs. Mexico. More like factor of 2 for those products.

Any cost study data specific to high end semiconductor chips? The restrictions that are being put in place are aimed at preventing the transfer of high end technology and high end chip manufacturing into China. There is already low end chip manufacturing in China. There is a huge technology leap shifting from low end to high end chip manufacturing. That is the technology targeted by these restrictions.

As a side note, I would gladly pay a few dollars more for plastic garbage pails, umbrellas, toasters, thermoses, etc. in order to spend my money in more USA friendly countries like Mexico, Singapore, India, Thailand, etc. rather than funding the CCP. Beijing poses the "biggest long-term threat to economic and national security" to America and Western allies. That statement isn't from some radical, bigoted, cultural intolerant radical group. It is from the US Pentagon S2 community this year. How is it possible that the CCP continue to retain a Permanent Most Favored Nation Status with the US?

[TGS]

As a side note, I would gladly pay a few dollars more for plastic garbage pails, umbrellas, toasters, thermoses, etc. in order to spend my money in more USA friendly countries like Mexico, Singapore, India, Thailand, etc. rather than funding the CCP.

You're in the minority. A very small minority. I'm with you to some degree, but the rest of the market isn't.

To wit, even on this website of which the membership is overwhelmingly conservative, two of the sponsored vendors at the top of the page are resellers of mostly Chinese-made products....the one being notorious for the vast majority of their products being Chinese counterfeit garbage.

This comes to mind:

[littlejerry]

Any cost study data specific to high end semiconductor chips? The restrictions that are being put in place are aimed at preventing the transfer of high end technology and high end chip manufacturing into China. There is already low end chip manufacturing in China. There is a huge technology leap shifting from low end to high end chip manufacturing. That is the technology targeted by these restrictions.

As a side note, I would gladly pay a few dollars more for plastic garbage pails, umbrellas, toasters, thermoses, etc. in order to spend my money in more USA friendly countries like Mexico, Singapore, India, Thailand, etc. rather than funding the CCP. Beijing poses the "biggest long-term threat to economic and national security" to America and Western allies. That statement isn't from some radical, bigoted, cultural intolerant radical group. It is from the US Pentagon S2 community this year. How is it possible that the CCP continue to retain a Permanent Most Favored Nation Status with the US?

Nothing specific to high end chips. Just complete consumer products. While the ratio probably isn't the same you're still facing the same cost pressures.

"A few dollars more" is wildly inaccurate and it's more than just "thermoses and garbage pails.". The reality is you would sacrifice roughly half of your discretionary spending power. It's home electronics, furniture, consumables, clothing, child safety products, etc.

And I don't disagree with you: we need to onshore as much as possible. But it's delusional to assume it's "a few dollars" unless your discretionary spending is only a few dollars.

[Caballoflaco]

Forgive me if it’s been covered and I missed it, but: what does this do to China’s long-running eyeballing of Taiwan? With
Taiwan making something like 65 percent of computer chips, how does this not increase pressure on China to go ahead and do ChiCom-type stuff to Taiwan?

Considering what has come out this week on China advancing timelines on Taiwan it’s kind of looking like the chip ban might be an “oh shit we need to do something yesterday” kind of thing.

https://news.usni.org/2022/10/18/acc...gon-priorities

WASHINGTON, D.C. — China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027, raising concerns with one member of Congress that the Pentagon is modernizing too slowly.

U.S. Navy officials have pointed to 2027 as the year when China wants to have the capability to take over Taiwan. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), a former Marine who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, pointed to that timeline on Tuesday as a reason why the Pentagon needs to modernize faster and prepare for a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific region.

“China’s just throwing so much money into military modernization and has already sped up its timeline to 2027 for when it wants the [People’s Liberation Army] to have the capability to seize Taiwan, that we need to act with a sense of urgency to tackle that threat because that is something unlike anything we’ve seen in modern history, at least,” Gallagher said.

[feudist]

What are opinions on China's actual force readiness vs paper readiness.
Are they as corrupt as Russia? IOW, a military hollowed out by graft, theft and negligence? Logistics units that are the repository of career deadenders?
I've read about China's youth having "Lay down" movements reflecting severe bitterness and disillusion with the Chicoms.
No one tells Xi anything but what he wants to hear...just like Putin.

[Joe in PNG]

Happily, we don't get the really, really cheap tofu dregs stuff in the USA. That's reserved for the Chinese owned and operated Kongkong shops in the 3rd world.

And it's seriously crap at that level- like worse than dollar store crap level. The Belt & Road Bribe & Debt Scheme may be winning corrupt politicians, but every crappy radio, plastic bucket, electric lantern that breaks down after a month (no refund!) is hurting them on the grassroots level.

[MickAK]

I’m not saying this isn’t something that we shouldn’t be doing, because I think it was a good call. But, I do think that we need to be open and [B]realistic[B/] about decoupling/onshoring etc. and what the costs are going to be. And there is going to be a cost.

I’m also waiting to see what actions the CCP decides to take in response. I don’t even have a starting place to make a prediction on what that might be other than it’s coming.

Yeah, I think we do.

A lot of us sell stuff to China, or had better plan on it in the future. That doesn't mean ignoring the fact that we pretty much need to fight periodic trade wars with them in perpetuity. That's a given.

There is a lot of infrastructure that needs to change or be built before that process goes forward and we can't even implement a coherent energy policy, or come up with one on paper for that matter. Sound policy only works in concert with other sound policies. Taking a step forward is good, onto a rusty nail is not as good.