Chip making in China canceled

[mizer67]

I think Taiwan and Singapore make vastly more chips than China does for the global market. I thought this sanction was more about the technology needed to manufacture advanced chips and much/most/all of that technology is purchased from American manufacturers. That is, while we don't make a lot of chips (yet) we make most/all of the related tech needed to manufacture and service said advanced chip manufacturing. I'm very fuzzy about exactly what that American tech actually is.

But from the OP's link:
"The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced new extraterritorial limits on the export to China of advanced semiconductors, chip-making equipment, and supercomputer components."

And that is how China gets stiffed. That's how I read it explained somewhere last week.

The US does not make the EUV equipment, or much of the DUV which is needed to produce most more advanced nodes. ASML (Dutch) has 100% of EUV and 88% of DUV markets.

However, US exerts control because the technology was developed with US IP.

[JHC]

The US does not make the EUV equipment, or much of the DUV which is needed to produce most more advanced nodes. ASML (Dutch) has 100% of EUV and 88% of DUV markets.

However, US exerts control because the technology was developed with US IP.

Thanks! I picked up from the Zeihan vid that the Dutch and Japanese were on board with this as well.

[medmo]

So who's going to make the chips?

Americans and American allies. There is a reason that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is expediently building multiple manufacturing facilities in Arizona. The market was exploding before the passage of the Chips and Science Act in the US and the passage of that bill is leading to more growth. Multiple, green field, manufacturing sites have been announced and ground broken in the US by the worlds major suppliers like Intel, Micron and Samsung. With the passage of the Chips and Science ACT multiple US manufacturers have announced expansion plans also. The picture of world wide semiconductor manufacturing is changing with the USA positioned to become the leading global supplier. It’s a good thing for US security and economy.

[HeavyDuty]

Americans and American allies. There is a reason that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is expediently building multiple manufacturing facilities in Arizona. The market was exploding before the passage of the Chips and Science Act in the US and the passage of that bill is leading to more growth. Multiple, green field, manufacturing sites have been announced and ground broken in the US by the worlds major suppliers like Intel, Micron and Samsung. With the passage of the Chips and Science ACT multiple US manufacturers have announced expansion plans also. The picture of world wide semiconductor manufacturing is changing with the USA positioned to become the leading global supplier. It’s a good thing for US security and economy.

About fucking time. The bean counters and MBAs who let us lose our early dominance in semiconductor manufacturing and even offshored should be charged with treason.

[mizer67]

Thanks! I picked up from the Zeihan vid that the Dutch and Japanese were on board with this as well.

Yes and no. The US broadened the Foreign Direct Product rule which limits US technology used in potential Dual Use goods to include the lithography equipment. I believe the US "content" was too low to apply to existing regulation, so we've been re-writing the rule book so to speak.

The Dutch have agreed with the re-writing of the rule book, so far. However, this is potentially a ~$3B/annual hit to ASML's bottom line, so very impactful and we'll see how this holds up long term. The initial EUV legislation had enough holes that the Chinese could circumvent it for a while. This legislation which targets DUV will potentially also have holes.

Likely the US won't stop until anything <~45 nm is out of play for the Chinese. But the ripples through the global economy will not be insignificant, even if more limited to the domestic Chinese market initially. The Chinese also have existing equipment they can eventually copy to replace ASMLs with varying degrees of success. If they're less concerned about the economics of it, producing on sub-standard equipment will likely mostly impact yields, hence drive cost and reliability, but not overall capability (long term). Not having access to EUV will potentially box them out of the <10 nm market at commercial scale, but using DUV (supposedly) they've already duplicated <10 nm nodes...albeit in a lab environment.

[UNK]

Likely both.

The amount of industrial espionage conducted by China is just astounding. You can't build a country on ripping off everyone else's R&D and ignoring patents and not expect there to be some consequences at some point.

Likewise, decoupling is really important. If they stopped letting their students study abroad here (or were unable to due to economic downturn), they would single handedly crash the American higher education industry overnight....and that's the real reason we keep issuing visas to Chinese students regardless of the vast majority of them conducting industrial espionage. Usually visa issuance can be leveraged as a foreign policy tool, but we shot ourselves in the foot with the CCP on that.

I posted about this in another thread. https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....=1#post1399448 Lead scientist Gary Yang and battery technology going to China.
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11149...china-vanadium

When a group of engineers and researchers gathered in a warehouse in Mukilteo, Wash., 10 years ago, they knew they were onto something big. They scrounged up tables and chairs, cleared out space in the parking lot for experiments and got to work.

They were building a battery — a vanadium redox flow battery — based on a design created by two dozen U.S. scientists at a government lab. The batteries were about the size of a refrigerator, held enough energy to power a house, and could be used for decades. The engineers pictured people plunking them down next to their air conditioners, attaching solar panels to them, and everyone living happily ever after off the grid.

"It was beyond promise," said Chris Howard, one of the engineers who worked there for a U.S. company called UniEnergy. "We were seeing it functioning as designed, as expected."

But that's not what happened. Instead of the batteries becoming the next great American success story, the warehouse is now shuttered and empty. All the employees who worked there were laid off. And more than 5,200 miles away, a Chinese company is hard at work making the batteries in Dalian, China.

[jh9]

The notion that a lot of people hold-- "all computer chips are made in China"-- has never been as true as they think it is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...acturing_sites

As mentioned; The US, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, etc are all actual manufacturers. Many with some capacity in mainland China but nowhere near as much as people seem to think.

[RoyGBiv]

I posted about this in another thread. https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....=1#post1399448 Lead scientist Gary Yang and battery technology going to China.
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11149...china-vanadium

Ernst Secures Investigation into $15M of U.S. Taxpayer-Funded Technology Given to Communist China

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Couple technology outright stolen and higher education being saturated with chinese with this info about Chinas reach and being able to target their citizens or even chinese citizens of other countries being world wide.

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-s-ov...s/6785143.html

China has opened dozens of what it calls "110 Overseas Police Service Centers" in cities around the world, some of which are being used to blackmail suspects into returning home to face criminal charges in breach of global extradition laws, according to a new report. There are fears the networks could be used to target political dissidents, as well as criminal suspects.

Finn Lau knows well the long reach of the Chinese Communist Party. As a leader of the 2019 Hong Kong protests against Beijing, he was sought by Chinese police and fled to Britain. But he wasn't safe in London.

In 2020, on a street close to his south London home, he was attacked by three masked men who he is convinced were working for the Chinese government.

[UNK]

Ernst Secures Investigation into $15M of U.S. Taxpayer-Funded Technology Given to Communist China

What really pisses me off about that is the damage has already been done. US Federal Agencies as well as the US Govt are out of control.
How we got to the point of empowering a Communist Nation to become a powerhouse is maddening.