Thanks for the suggestions. I'm going to the range in the morning and will give this a try. Hopefully there won't be many people there and I can use my timer.Originally Posted by JCN
Thanks for the suggestions. I'm going to the range in the morning and will give this a try. Hopefully there won't be many people there and I can use my timer.
I was under the impression that no one has been able to replicate his study and come up with the same numbers. I’ve seen estimates ranging from 200k to 3m. I’d be happy to be proven wrong since then I could cite those stats when speaking to people who are still on the fence about gun use.
My posts only represent my personal opinion and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official policies of any employer, past or present. Obvious spelling errors are likely the result of an iPhone keyboard.
It's probably true that his results haven't been reproducible. But unless you want to embrace nihilism then you shouldn't worry about it excessively. The hard sciences, including medicine, have a real replication crisis that nobody has figured out how to deal with. The softer sciences are even worse off. As a social scientist, Lott isn't doing any worse than the rest of academia in this regard. So not ideal, but hardly an accusation that's unique to Lott.
Frankly, I'd just go ahead and cite Lott and if anyone bitches about replicability just level the accusation right back at them for whatever source they are citing. Ask them for the subsequent study replicating those findings.
The thing about Lott is that you kind of have to read his stuff with an eye to “what is useful about this”/“what can I take away from it” rather than “what is wrong with this” and “how can I disprove or cast doubt on these findings”.
Lott never said there are 3 million defensive gunfights in the US on an annual basis or average. What he said his premise was, was to find out a more realistic estimate of defensive gun uses on the annual basis is the US than are represented by the FBI crime statistics, since those are only the crimes actually reported to police that are then actually reported to the FBI - they aren’t actually statistical samples extrapolated to the population, but compilation of reported crimes.
So Lott looked for defensive gun uses, which he defined as a use of a gun to protect from crime, to prevent a crime, and so forth, so his definition is looser that anything the FBI is going to use in their crime index. I feel like it’s more realistic, too - every defensive gun use I’ve ever had ended without me firing a shot, so they don’t actually qualify as “gunfights” even though there were guns present. That, of course, doesn’t mean that happy circumstance will continue forever, but so far in my life, having a gun or other weapon and being willing to use it has prevented me being a victim of a crime of violence enough times (in sometimes very odd circumstances) that I’m not willing to go without it whenever I can manage it.
Maybe that’s confirmation bias, but Lott’s work makes sense to me, so I’m going with it. YMMV.
I just threw my fire extinguisher in the the trash. I have not used it in years. Not planning a kitchen fire so it’s not necessary. Same logic.
His argument is not that it's unnecessary, it's that the number of kitchen fires are of such a small number that his odds of needing it are too low to bother with taking the simple precaution of having the right tool at hand to handle the situation himself. If you had said that, then yes, it is the same logic. When you take his logic and apply it all sorts of other endeavors it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I have been driving my 2013 Chevrolet without a spare tire for the last decade now, simply because it didn't come with one and the dealers wanted far too much for a new donut to stow in the trunk.
Did I realize when I made that decision that I could have really regretted that decision? Yes. Have I regretted it YET.... ??? Not even a little bit beyond the discomfort of knowing I could get stranded in a bad way and HOPE that I can get on the phone for AAA to get assistance. Here's the kicker... I have been stranded in a bad way (bad area) with a flat tire and in this case I did have a full size spare under the rear of the truck.... or so I thought anyways. It had been there when it was purchased and somewhere in between it was either stolen or gravity had taken it on the road somewhere. Lucky for me, I had a mechanic that happened to be at the gas station I rolled into with the flat help me take the wheel to Walmart to get a new tire mounted.
You would think that I would never have gone without a spare ever again after that incident. What Duke is saying is that he's not going to the trouble anymore to be prepared for a somewhat common (albeit not TOO common as far as we know) occurence in society. I can understand this as I didn't go to the trouble of having a spare tire and still probably will be seling the car without a spare. That said, the result of me not having a spare tire will probably in all likelihood be 99.9999999% chance that zero harm will come to me besides the frustration of being stranded and the associated stress.
I’m sure there’s a small number of people who have been robbed, assaulted or murdered with fire extinguishers stolen out of cars or houses and an even smaller number of people who have accidentally killed or permanently maimed themselves or loved ones with their own fire extinguisher. I also doubt there are many people in prison or on trial for using a fire extinguisher when they shouldn’t have, or when other people think they shouldn’t have. I would argue that there is a greater mental burden in keeping guns around than fire extinguishers if you’re doing it right and actually being mindful about it.
While this doesn’t apply to Duke’s situation I’ve also known a couple of people who were so burnt out on violence due to being around it and actually doing it that they legit just needed a break and some time to heal themselves and being away from weapons for either the short term or the rest of their lives was part of that for them.
I don’t currently mind the extra cognitive load, but broad inaccurate analogies are broad inaccurate analogies and rarely useful if you’re trying to have a nuanced discussion about things with consequences.
Both of these posts were excellent... Thank you, gentlemen, for taking the time.
I drive a big rig for a living and I'm in many states every week, some which would happily jail my ass if I was found with firearm on my person. And as a commercial driver LEO does not even need probable cause to pull me over and inspect me. And many of the places I visit have a strict No Weapons policy on their premises. Yes, I have the ability to carry in NPE environments without getting made aside from a full pat down or strip search but I decided long ago that the effort was not worth the additional trouble and aggravation. The odds of me needing a gun for defense in my opinion was much lower than the odds of me getting jammed up in situation where I would be discovered carrying illegally so I choose not to carry on the job.
So yeah, Duke, I get it and fully respect your decision.
Having had a DGU….. and all the ancillary trouble along with it I feel, not to be rude, more qualified than most to determine my actual increase of security based on being armed or not at all times.
Again I’m not trying to be rude. I don’t know better than you. But I am willing to challenge my bias to make a choice not grounded in trauma/turmoil.
Spouting off all the cliche gun guy stuff doesn’t make a point as well as we feel like it does.
At no time have I said or felt as if evil has magically vanished nor that it will never find its way to me again.
What I did say - and I stand by it - you, me/we - if outside a war zone are no where near as likely to have to resort to offensive trigger pulling as we want to believe we are.
Factually. Statistically it is not that relevant
I’d wager the most ridiculing this mindset dont have all their own household layers tightened up.
Have you deeded your valuables to a trust to remove asset motivation of attack or litigation? Have you a detailed arrangement with your attorneys as to your protocol given a crisis ? Does your legal council have access to your home security cameras ? Do you have home security cameras, fences, a spare car, wallet, cash, credentials at your other home to fall back on should your primary residence be deemed unlivable or inaccessible?
What about the basics ? Is your car at 1/4 a tank of fuel with mismatched tire pressure or expired date codes on the rubber ?
What about your general health? Self defense is about your health right ? How’s your current performance as an athlete in terms of the scope of a capable person ?
Again I’m not in any way trying to be rude. But a gun carrier 24/7 is never going to solve all these aspects.
If you truly feel helpless without a gun , you probably are.
Reply With Quote