Recession imminent

[jeep45238]

Recessions (extended bear markets) are always imminent - as are extended bull markets. There's no point worrying about that, as you can't control it, and a sound financial plan will work in either or. Commodities just do what commodities do, there's no straight up correlation of gold/silver/whatever to the rest of the economy (and owning gold literally can't produce anything while you hold it). Better off buying ammo, in my opinion.


The problem I discovered with most people and their charts is pretty simple - they do a price return model, not a total return. Total return is dividends, returns of capital, etc., combined with the price return - that is absolutely a real thing (especially if you have it automatically re-invested in the security). My personal return over the last 2 years is more or less flat with a global portfolio in an environment where fear mongering is everywhere. I'm pretty confident of a 5-9% gain over the next 8 years.


Today I checked my brokerage account and initially thought Biden said something dumb about guns again, because S&W was up 20% today. Usually when the White House admin. say something dumb, Ruger, S&W, Olin, and Ammo Inc. all rise a fair margin and then slowly lower. Not today- people were excited the earnings per share beat some person's estimate (barely) and wanted in on the gravy train (it'll drop back down).

[WDR]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wheres-...mised-cd68a992


Where’s the Recession We Were Promised?
The economy and the jobs market turned out to be far less sensitive to interest rates than economists thought, at least so far

This crap is killing me right now. Sorta in the market for a new (to me) pickup... and asking prices for high mileage 3/4 and 1 ton trucks are inflated at least 10 grand over book, let alone clean lower mile trucks. I found a clean grandpa driven 04 Silverado with just over 100k miles, and the dealership is asking $18,900 for it, about $9000 more than it books for. But almost every truck is inflated like that. Even private sellers are asking way too much.


A new Duramax prices out around 65-70k for something middle of the road, and that's somewhere around $1200-1300/month for a payment. I honestly don't know how average folks do it.

I shouldn't have spent all my truck money on RMR's and Glocks I guess.

[Spartan1980]

This crap is killing me right now. Sorta in the market for a new (to me) pickup... and asking prices for high mileage 3/4 and 1 ton trucks are inflated at least 10 grand over book, let alone clean lower mile trucks. I found a clean grandpa driven 04 Silverado with just over 100k miles, and the dealership is asking $18,900 for it, about $9000 more than it books for. But almost every truck is inflated like that. Even private sellers are asking way too much.


A new Duramax prices out around 65-70k for something middle of the road, and that's somewhere around $1200-1300/month for a payment. I honestly don't know how average folks do it.

I shouldn't have spent all my truck money on RMR's and Glocks I guess.

I saw a new F150 "something or other" Edition the other day for OVER.....wait for it....




$90K

Not even kidding. I thought this was 1 ton, dually, 4X4, diesel money. Now I'm afraid to even look at those! I want a 4X4 Godzilla powered F250 badly. But not that badly...

[WDR]

I saw a new F150 "something or other" Edition the other day for OVER.....wait for it....




$90K

Not even kidding. I thought this was 1 ton, dually, 4X4, diesel money. Now I'm afraid to even look at those! I want a 4X4 Godzilla powered F250 badly. But not that badly...

There is a dealer near me... asking $33k for a 2017 Chevy 3500 crewcab longbed gasser with 190k miles. So I guess maybe 90 or 100 for a new one isn't so bad?

I've decided I need a side gig, cooking meth, running guns, and selling organs.