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Thread: Recession imminent

  1. #231
    Site Supporter hufnagel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    Buy that acreage a short drive into the country from a growing suburb..... Wait 20 years for the sprawl to reach you. Now you have 200 acres on the edge of suburbia with a mall, swanky grocery and lots of restaurants just a 10 minute drive from your 200 valuable acres. Be sure to set it up to qualify for an Ag exemption or the increase in property tax will force you to sell.
    that was the root of my thinking.
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  2. #232
    Gucci gear, Walmart skill Darth_Uno's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    Buy that acreage a short drive into the country from a growing suburb..... Wait 20 years for the sprawl to reach you. Now you have 200 acres on the edge of suburbia with a mall, swanky grocery and lots of restaurants just a 10 minute drive from your 200 valuable acres. Be sure to set it up to qualify for an Ag exemption or the increase in property tax will force you to sell.
    We recently built a home for a couple that owned a plant nursery. I remember going there when I was a kid, and there was nothing around it. Just a nursery in the middle of farm ground. Through the years the city expanded around and past their property. Like you and I (or me anyway), they had a modest but not exceptional income. Normal people working a normal job. They just sold to a commercial developer for $16,000,000.

  3. #233
    Site Supporter rob_s's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    Buy that acreage a short drive into the country from a growing suburb..... Wait 20 years for the sprawl to reach you. Now you have 200 acres on the edge of suburbia with a mall, swanky grocery and lots of restaurants just a 10 minute drive from your 200 valuable acres. Be sure to set it up to qualify for an Ag exemption or the increase in property tax will force you to sell.
    We are on 1.25 acres, 20 minutes from the beach.

    Every time I get a job offer out of town they inevitably tell me “yes, but it’s a lower cost of living in Orlando/Austin/Sheboygan/Ohio”. Then I ask “ oh, so how much does a 5/4 with 1.25 acres of land, a pool, and a workshop on the property that’s 20 minutes from the beach cost there?”

    Crickets.

    Being that we are in a sub-rural, “equestrian community” (talk about crazies), there is a lot of resentment towards the expansion of development towards and around our area.

    Being that I’d like to sell this house in 4-7 years and GTFO of the south Florida cesspool, I welcome every Amazon distribution center and fancy new gated community in the area.
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  4. #234
    Site Supporter Maple Syrup Actual's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TGS View Post
    About the same here. $300k here gets you a 1BR condo in a decent bedroom community with metro access, or a 2BR condo in one of the older buildings that aren't kept up as well or a nice community without walking distance to the metro.

    FWIW, don't know about you guys but I love watching the youtube channels that cover the more interesting small/low cost housing in Tokyo and NYC.
    I have this mild fascination with super-efficient space usage...I love to see those tiny space things where people have put an entire home into 300 square feet with all this totally innovative storage and shifting surfaces and so on and so on.

    But I also know that I would get nothing out of that because I'm one of those people who, unless something has been in a specific place for so long it's made it into my long-term memory, sees a closed cabinet and has no working memory of what might be there: unless I'm consciously trying to work with that specific information, everything carefully stored is out of sight and therefore out of mind for me.

    For example, I spent an hour looking for a tool the other day...I checked all my work benches, starting with the one I'd most recently used it at. But it wasn't there. I then went through each ongoing project's stuff, hunting for the thing. I kept coming back to the most recent workbench because although I didn't have a specific memory of placing the thing there, I have a really good unconscious memory of the things I've been working on so my skin crawls a bit if I go somewhere I've been working and things have been moved - I can't tell what's happened, necessarily, but I know it doesn't make sense that the item I'm looking for isn't next to the motor I was using it on or whatever.

    So I go from place to place, parts pile to parts pile, getting increasingly confused as the tool is nowhere to be found.

    Finally I remember that my kid had come downstairs while I was holding it and it has a sharp end on it...so I put it in its drawer in my roller chest.

    It took me an hour to think of looking in the drawer.


    This is the second time this has happened in the last two months. Just with that one tool.

    The sockets and everything I'm fine with because they've been in the same drawer for years. But anything new, forget it.


    If I lived in one of those perfectly designed, everything-has-its-place masterpieces of efficiency, I absolutely guarantee every single thing I owned would be on the floor so I could see it, otherwise, I'd basically wake up in a low-key version of Memento every morning.
    This is a thread where I built a boat I designed and which I very occasionally update with accounts of using it, which is really fun as long as I'm not driving over logs and blowing up the outboard.
    https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....ilding-a-skiff

  5. #235
    Site Supporter rob_s's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maple Syrup Actual View Post
    If I lived in one of those perfectly designed, everything-has-its-place masterpieces of efficiency, I absolutely guarantee every single thing I owned would be on the floor so I could see it, otherwise, I'd basically wake up in a low-key version of Memento every morning.
    Do you remember the one dude in Suburbia that had all of his clothes hung on nails stuck into the wall of his bedroom?

    ETA:
    I think it was "Skinner", the skinhead character?
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  6. #236
    Site Supporter Maple Syrup Actual's Avatar
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    HOLY COW that's a throwback to my youth. I hadn't thought of that movie in years. If I watched it today I think I'd see a lot of things that would be uncomfortably familiar, including that organization system.

    Man, that's a really funny reference. Next time I'm after an "in the background" movie while I work on something, that's going on the screen, no doubt about it.
    This is a thread where I built a boat I designed and which I very occasionally update with accounts of using it, which is really fun as long as I'm not driving over logs and blowing up the outboard.
    https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....ilding-a-skiff

  7. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maple Syrup Actual View Post
    For example, I spent an hour looking for a tool the other day...I checked all my work benches, starting with the one I'd most recently used it at. But it wasn't there. I then went through each ongoing project's stuff, hunting for the thing. I kept coming back to the most recent workbench because although I didn't have a specific memory of placing the thing there, I have a really good unconscious memory of the things I've been working on so my skin crawls a bit if I go somewhere I've been working and things have been moved - I can't tell what's happened, necessarily, but I know it doesn't make sense that the item I'm looking for isn't next to the motor I was using it on or whatever.

    So I go from place to place, parts pile to parts pile, getting increasingly confused as the tool is nowhere to be found.
    Quit living my life!

    That, and I recently spent way too much money on an open top toolbox because things were getting buried in the bottom of the 5 gallon bucket (with Bucket Boss) I've been using for a toolbox. The relatively expansive new toolbox at least corrals most of my frequently used tools into one spot that is easy to visually examine. It has been quite the time/hassle saver.
    All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
    No one is coming. It is up to us.

  8. #238
    Site Supporter rob_s's Avatar
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    Kinda surprised we hadn’t seen a bump on this one in awhile.

    I was pondering on “great resignation” and “white quitting” and “quiet firing” and “lowered productivity” and “young people suck” and all such things the other day when something occurred to me… you have to be early 40 years old or older to remember the last recession in any meaningful way.

    Here’s some assumptions:
    1) the last recession really started to make itself known around 2008 in terms of impacts to individuals day to day (depending on source, the official dates are Dec 2007 to June 2009).
    2) to really have felt the impacts, you needed to have been actually already working and minimally establishing a career and starting to make adult choices (buying a house, having kids, buying a new car, etc.)
    3) for #2 to be a thing, you need to be at least 24 years old. If you went to college or did 4 years of military, you need to get out, get a “normal” job, and start to get established. If you went straight into the trades or something like that, you still need a few years to get into an apprentice program, join a union, get your head right, what ever.

    Someone that was 24 in 2008 was born in 1984. That person is 38 today. Add in any sort of sliders (military then college, community college then trades, college plus grad school, etc.) and you easily get to someone 40 or over.

    According to this article from 4 years ago Millenials (who at that time were 22-37, or 26-41 today) made up 1/3 of the workforce. And climbing. While boomers and Xers were on the rise. And Zoomers were barely on the radar. They didn’t even have a name yet, just “post Millenials”.

    Some predictions claim millenials will be 75% of the workforce by 2025 (something I am not sure is Mathematically possible), which is also about the latest anyone is predicting a recession to hit.

    These people (much like myself around 2006) are still thinking this gravy train just ain’t gonna never end!
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  9. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by rob_s View Post
    Kinda surprised we hadn’t seen a bump on this one in awhile.

    I was pondering on “great resignation” and “white quitting” and “quiet firing” and “lowered productivity” and “young people suck” and all such things the other day when something occurred to me… you have to be early 40 years old or older to remember the last recession in any meaningful way.

    Here’s some assumptions:
    1) the last recession really started to make itself known around 2008 in terms of impacts to individuals day to day (depending on source, the official dates are Dec 2007 to June 2009).
    2) to really have felt the impacts, you needed to have been actually already working and minimally establishing a career and starting to make adult choices (buying a house, having kids, buying a new car, etc.)
    3) for #2 to be a thing, you need to be at least 24 years old. If you went to college or did 4 years of military, you need to get out, get a “normal” job, and start to get established. If you went straight into the trades or something like that, you still need a few years to get into an apprentice program, join a union, get your head right, what ever.

    Someone that was 24 in 2008 was born in 1984. That person is 38 today. Add in any sort of sliders (military then college, community college then trades, college plus grad school, etc.) and you easily get to someone 40 or over.

    According to this article from 4 years ago Millenials (who at that time were 22-37, or 26-41 today) made up 1/3 of the workforce. And climbing. While boomers and Xers were on the rise. And Zoomers were barely on the radar. They didn’t even have a name yet, just “post Millenials”.

    Some predictions claim millenials will be 75% of the workforce by 2025 (something I am not sure is Mathematically possible), which is also about the latest anyone is predicting a recession to hit.

    These people (much like myself around 2006) are still thinking this gravy train just ain’t gonna never end!
    History doesn't repeat itself...but it often rhymes.

    But yeah people don't seem to grasp that most millenials are in their 30s and 40s now.

    My sisters are 40, 36, and 34 years old, my older brother is 38 with myself and my younger brother are 31 and 27.

    We're all millenials technically, but probably only the two oldest really felt the recession.

    But if they did, it never showed. They both easily found work and purchased homes.

    Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

  10. #240
    Site Supporter hufnagel's Avatar
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    I think there a bunch of micro factors (young people suck, being one) that some people are clamping on to, when they need to be focusing more on the macro factors (real purchasing power has been DECIMATED with the massive inflation of the past nearly 2 years.) We're not in a recession; we're sliding head long into a full blown depression, if we're not actually already there and the people that post the numbers are flat out lying to us.

    YPS is an actual problem. While I don't consider myself "old", at least when I picture myself in my head, I am almost 50, so I definitely have a different world and employment view compared to people younger than me (say, 30-ish and below.) Case in point: at a client's a couple days back, and she asked one of her employees to do something. It was somewhat time sensitive (as I was there, and I get paid by the hour as a consultant) and important to the business, but the level of exhibited disrespect to the "boss" shown by said employee, had me looking at her with a shocked expression, not to mention wanting to shove MY boot up his ass. I've worked for this company for over 14 years now, and I would NEVER speak to an employer the way he did, unless my goal was to get fired. That's not to say I haven't been frank in the past with this and many of my clients. ("Ron, you really don't want to know or care about the technical details, most of which you won't understand anyways without me spending a lot of time explaining it. You just want me to fix it, and let you know when it's done." I worked for that client for 15 years after that day until he sold the business to a competitor.)

    I think what has happened is, much like politics and education, people have taken things too far in trying to "correct" a (perceived?) imbalance or "wrong" in the situation. "Quiet Quitting" and "Know Your Worth" at their core should be more about achieving a better work/life balance (possibly the only good thing to come out of the scamdemic) and/or being more appropriate compensated for your time/work/efforts. Or as mine and prior generations would say "I'm getting too old for this shit."
    Rules to live by: 1. Eat meat, 2. Shoot guns, 3. Fire, 4. Gasoline, 5. Make juniors
    TDA: Learn it. Live it. Love it.... Read these: People Management Triggers 1, 2, 3
    If anyone sees a broken image of mine, please PM me.

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