Recession imminent

[entropy]

Starting to see signs of stagflation with high inflation combined with a loss of jobs. The leading job indicators, namely bankers and foot soldiers for financial companies, are starting to see layoffs. Not surprising when the fifteen-year mortgage rate has essentially doubled in six months. The Fed is talking about a 75 basis point increase to the Fed funds rate with a year end goal of a rate around 3.5%. Then we see inflation with fuel prices much higher than last year and food prices going crazy. My wife told me she saw a dozen eggs going for $5.00 and butter at $6.50 per pound. Last year, a dozen eggs cost less than $1 and butter was $3.00 per pound.

This reminds me too much of the late 1970s.

Yeah...today’s “Flower Children” are going to learn first hand about the Carter Administration.

History repeats itself...

[Lester Polfus]

I wonder if Amazon’s quarterly loss is the proverbial canary in the mine, for our 2022 economy.

That's a great question. I think we passed Peak Amazon right before the pandemic started, and their decline would have started sooner if not for the fact that people were locked down and buying stuff on line for two years.

I deal with Amazon all the time. About 50% of my side hustle income is from Amazon and I'm scrambling all the time to make that number smaller.

Fundamentally Amazon is a search engine first, and a store second. Amazon currently sucks as a discovery tool, unless you know the exact thing you want, because it is flooded with cheap Chinese shit from retailers that have won success by learning how to game Amazon's search results, not by offering a superior product. Folks are getting tired of that.

Those of us who have a business relationship with Amazon do so because we have to, not because we want to. They are really horrible to do business with, until you start selling somewhere around seven figures on the store, then it's like the Mean Girls at high school are thinking about accepting you.

I think the idea that Amazon will decline is unthinkable for some, but for those of of a certain age, a world without Sears was unthinkable too.

[entropy]

Great points above. ^^^

[farscott]

I wonder if Amazon’s quarterly loss is the proverbial canary in the mine, for our 2022 economy.

I do not think so. Amazon only reported a loss due to their investment in Rivian being marked to market for the quarter. Amazon's operating profit was quite healthy. Same thing happened to Ford earlier in the week. The new accounting rule forcing unrealized investment gains and losses to be reflected in quarterly operating profit numbers distorts many earnings reports.

[Borderland]

Today I read that the real estate market will continue to evolve into a yuge bubble where prices will continue to rise at astronomical rates. The reason is the interest rate to buy a house now will beat the inflation rate that is sure to come. 30 year fixed at 5% is a deal. With very few companies willing to risk new construction with rising material and labor costs in an uncertain market the available housing remains in very short supply.

Maybe a residential builder can shed some light on this.

[GJM]

I do not think so. Amazon only reported a loss due to their investment in Rivian being marked to market for the quarter. Amazon's operating profit was quite healthy. Same thing happened to Ford earlier in the week. The new accounting rule forcing unrealized investment gains and losses to be reflected in quarterly operating profit numbers distorts many earnings reports.

Stripping out Rivian, which made a disproportionate contribution to the last quarter's profits, the Amazon e commerce business lost money for the quarter. I think that is a problem given the inflation driven headwinds all companies are facing this year.

[Borderland]

Starting to see signs of stagflation with high inflation combined with a loss of jobs. The leading job indicators, namely bankers and foot soldiers for financial companies, are starting to see layoffs. Not surprising when the fifteen-year mortgage rate has essentially doubled in six months. The Fed is talking about a 75 basis point increase to the Fed funds rate with a year end goal of a rate around 3.5%. Then we see inflation with fuel prices much higher than last year and food prices going crazy. My wife told me she saw a dozen eggs going for $5.00 and butter at $6.50 per pound. Last year, a dozen eggs cost less than $1 and butter was $3.00 per pound.

This reminds me too much of the late 1970s.

Some gas stations in my area (mom and pops in out-of-way locations) are still charging $5/gal. for regular. I can buy it for $4.20 at Costco but that's 30 miles from me. Not everyone shops at Costco and I get that. I shop there less and less every month. A year ago I was there every 2 weeks. Now about every month. Like Amazon, I think Costco is going to fall on hard times in the next few years. I'm not sure if we'll renew our membership. The local grocery store is getting most of our business these days.

[farscott]

Stripping out Rivian, which made a disproportionate contribution to the last quarter's profits, the Amazon e commerce business lost money for the quarter. I think that is a problem given the inflation driven headwinds all companies are facing this year.

Can you provide a source for the e-commerce losses? Everything I have read shows it made a profit albeit not as high as expected by analysts. For example, https://www.forbes.com/sites/shelley...h=4b2baac9656e

[GJM]

Can you provide a source for the e-commerce losses? Everything I have read shows it made a profit albeit not as high as expected by analysts. For example, https://www.forbes.com/sites/shelley...h=4b2baac9656e

I googled it up last night, searching for the impact of Rivian on overall Amazon results.

Here is their SEC Q report with detailed segment info:

https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files...ial_update.pdf

[farscott]

I googled it up last night, searching for the impact of Rivian on overall Amazon results.

Here is their SEC Q report with detailed segment info:

https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files...ial_update.pdf

That link is to the fourth quarter of last year, released in February. Everything I have read shows "online sales" was profitable, but the revenue growth was much worse than expected. Instead of revenue growth, online sales dropped by 1%, but third-party online sales were up. "Consolidated sales" were up by 7%, which is much lower than expected. AWS was very profitable.