Recession imminent

[Borderland]

Nobody ever talks about the economy on this forum. I thought I would start a discussion about what lies ahead. Of course nobody can accurately predict the future but this is what it looks like to me.

Generally it looks like a real estate bubble about to burst and one mother of a recession on the way. I have lots of cash on the sidelines. I can buy lots of $5 rotisserie chickens at Costco.

Rosenberg: We are living through an epic period in financial and economic history. We had a global pandemic, which nobody was prepared for. We had irresponsible fiscal largesse with gigantic tax cuts at a time of full employment in the last administration that left a lot of the cupboard bare for fiscal policy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pr...rg-11647438915

[GJM]

Nobody ever talks about the economy on this forum. I thought I would start a discussion about what lies ahead. Of course nobody can accurately predict the future but this is what it looks like to me.

Generally it looks like a real estate bubble about to burst and one mother of a recession on the way. I have lots of cash on the sidelines. I can buy lots of $5 rotisserie chickens at Costco.




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pr...rg-11647438915

I started saying the exact thing, but it was when Obama was re-elected and the Dow was at 13,000.

There are so many wild cards floating around -- inflation, Covid, Ukraine, China and probably my more I have not thought of, that anyone that thinks they knows what will happen probably doesn't. The next few years are surely going to be interesting.

[45dotACP]

Just dropping a spicy meme in here for us 80s and 90s kids.

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

[karandom]

Nobody ever talks about the economy on this forum. I thought I would start a discussion about what lies ahead. Of course nobody can accurately predict the future but this is what it looks like to me.

Generally it looks like a real estate bubble about to burst and one mother of a recession on the way. I have lots of cash on the sidelines. I can buy lots of $5 rotisserie chickens at Costco.




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pr...rg-11647438915

In that article Rosenberg is saying the Fed will be hawkish with rate hikes and hike fast enough to destroy demand and cause a recession. This is not likely. The Fed increased rates by 25 bps which was widely expected and signal up to 6 more hikes. This is now priced into the market. If the Fed raises in line with expectations it is unlikely to dry up demand to the point of a recession. Hopefully the Fed realizes that current inflation is a supply issue and hawkish monetary policy is not going to impact it. They will likely hike to what the market is pricing in as it gives them ammunition to cut rates when we do hit another recessionary point.

I have no idea if we are heading into a recession, but I disagree with the author that Fed policy will lead us there.

[Borderland]

Just dropping a spicy meme in here for us 80s and 90s kids.

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

You shouldn't have to wait very long.

[JohnO]

Many of the indicators are pointing toward a return to 1970's style Stagflation. It has been talked about for many years now. We may now be in the perfect storm scenario for Stagflation.

[Suvorov]

Nobody ever talks about the economy on this forum. I thought I would start a discussion about what lies ahead. Of course nobody can accurately predict the future but this is what it looks like to me.

Generally it looks like a real estate bubble about to burst and one mother of a recession on the way. I have lots of cash on the sidelines. I can buy lots of $5 rotisserie chickens at Costco.




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pr...rg-11647438915

That $5 Costco Chicken isn’t going to stay $5.

[Vista461]

I’ve been feeling like it’s just a matter of time before the housing bubble bursts.

I don’t see how it’s sustainable, when people needed to offer 10’s of thousands over already inflated home prices.

I bought my house in 2002 when the market was pretty hot with people offering over asking but nothing like the last couple years. Then along came 2008. Right before bubble burst the city assessed my house at 60k more than I paid for it ($180k and I paid $120k) , they could’ve had the house and all myself stuff in it for that. Lol

We sold in 2018 for 40k less than the city assessed it at 10 years earlier. Lol

We’re holding out for houses to come back to reality hopefully in a few years, when we plan on relocating south, but the amount of people that will likely be upside down will probably be crazy with this insane overbidding on houses the last couple years.

[Borderland]

In that article Rosenberg is saying the Fed will be hawkish with rate hikes and hike fast enough to destroy demand and cause a recession. This is not likely. The Fed increased rates by 25 bps which was widely expected and signal up to 6 more hikes. This is now priced into the market. If the Fed raises in line with expectations it is unlikely to dry up demand to the point of a recession. Hopefully the Fed realizes that current inflation is a supply issue and hawkish monetary policy is not going to impact it. They will likely hike to what the market is pricing in as it gives them ammunition to cut rates when we do hit another recessionary point.

I have no idea if we are heading into a recession, but I disagree with the author that Fed policy will lead us there.

Some believe the housing bubble and subsequent mortgage crises had a great deal to do with the last recession. I watch real estate prices here and they have been going up 15-20% a year the last few years. How is that possible in a healthy economy? People are barrowing money to purchase real estate. When they go underwater on those loans they walk away.

[Totem Polar]

That $5 Costco Chicken isn’t going to stay $5.

No shit. In a world of 8 dollar pints and 75 dollar fill ups for your 3-box Japanese sedan, the idea of eating chicken that costs only $5 is…

unwise.