Electric vehicles catch-all thread

[runcible]

My personal suss on it is that when a broad range of less-niche (as presented, as advertised) options arrived from mainline brands, a wave of interest from the general driving public built, then cresting as batteries closed in on the end of their effective service lives, with all of the looming cost realities that go with that. Market interest then gradually redirected back towards the established cost dynamics.

Less than 5 years for most, when you get down to it.

[littlejerry]

I've been fearing this outcome for the last 15 years.

The shortcomings of pure EV have been known for decades, and the easy napkin-level math identifies the need for a total step-change in battery technology akin to transition from vacuum tubes to solid state semi-conductors.

The issue is no one knows what the source of that step change is. The less knowledgeable policy makers have just assumed it's inevitability as if it were merely a new version of the i-Phone. They've built a regulatory trap for the manufaruers which requires them to develop and build vehicles the public doesn't want and in many cases can't afford.

This will unfortunately get much worse before it gets better. We're still in the "transition phase" where the CAFE requirements will continue to ratchet up to a level where fleets will have to be majority EV in order to maintain compliance. Total volume of traditional ICE and even hybrid vehicles will be cut well below market demand which in turn will drive prices up even beyond where they are today.

It's textbook market distortion and the consumer will suffer for it. As always the consumer with lowest means will suffer the most.

[Navin Johnson]

This ^^^

All brought to you by your own tax dollars

[Bucky]

Mild hybrids have for the most part fallen by the wayside; leaving only the concept of using RWD electric motors to make otherwise FWD vehicles situationally AWD, whether for traction or for increased HP.

Or vice versa, such as the Corvette ERay.

[Borderland]

This thread has been enlightening. 💡

[Bucky]

What is startling is how quickly EV vehicles have gone from the "it child" to dead on arrival. I still love driving an EV, but it is a specific use vehicle as opposed to primary.

I use mine as my primary, but I very rarely go more than 200 miles round trip. When I do, I'll take a gas vehicle. I've yet to charge at a public charging station.

My original intent when I made my purchase was to charge at work for free and essentially drive for free. I decided on different opportunities, so that's no longer an option (but I'm driving much less so...)

[runcible]

Or vice versa, such as the Corvette ERay.

That's a very fair point! I'd go so far to say that it's almost that exception that proves the rule, as there are tangible advantages to the extra weight and weight-distro from having a full-length transmission and being primarily RWD, for such a car; but someone in New England doubtlessly intends for it to be their all-seasons daily driver in a big f u to the Subawoo crowd.

The E-Ray's cockpit looks fricking incredible; it's not a thing I generally dwell on, mostly driving utilitarian vehicles. But, what a lovely combination of digital and analog controls.

Bearing with the idea that hybrids are reaching sufficient maturity as a concept to reduce diversifying and maximize refinement, the swing of modern hybrids back towards as a performance enhancer is pretty cool.

(Ford tried to Prius the F-150 with Pro Power, which I still think is a very worthy and interesting concept, but it's just about their lowest rated and least reliable vehicle in the catalog right now. Toyota went the other way with their hybrid pickups and emphasized some fuel economy but most definitely towing ability.)

I was going to remark that I'd love to see them make a Porsche 911 hybrid as a more accessible successor to the 918 Spyder, so as to nudge the line a little further as far as software control of an electric motor, obviating a mechanical differential, for both maximum traction during a turn and AWD function at-speed... but it turns out that one's on the way for 2025.

[mmc45414]

What is startling is how quickly EV vehicles have gone from the "it child" to dead on arrival.

I think scarcity created the buzz, everyone seemed to want one when they were just vaporware that no one could get. A friend was the owner/manager of a minor league hocky team. They were in an arena that had a capacity of about five times more than typical attendance, even on a good night it looked like nobody showed up. He told me there was no urgency to buy tickets, because you could show up anytime you wanted and buy a ticket, like a movie theater, and eventually they tanked. And now if you want an EV you can go buy an EV, and it turns out most people just liked to talk about EVs when they were the next big (unavailable) thing.

And IMO Musk exacerbated this by promising they would also drive themselves, and that sounds cool, but not sure the juice is worth the squeeze, and they probably overinvested in something that just might prove to be impractical. And they folded it in, as if it were just another included feature, like air conditioning. Car and Driver bought one in order try it out over the span of their normal 40k mile long term test:



I don't want to be a hater, but the government sure has turned it into a panacea goat rodeo.

[Borderland]

This just in. I didn't see it anywhere so thought I would share.

The EPA is limiting consumer choice by forcing Americans into vehicles they might not be able to afford or conveniently fuel. According to Cox Automotive, in Nov. 2022, the average transaction price for EVs was above $65,000. EV prices have since declined, due primarily to an oversupply of EVs on dealer lots, to an average of $52,345 in November, vs. $48,247 for the average vehicle. In December, EV inventory was at a 114-day supply as compared to the industry average 71-day supply. This $4,000+ price difference, coupled with inadequate charging infrastructure (1.2 million public chargers and 20 million private chargers are estimated to be needed by 2030 to meet demand) and long charging times (most public chargers take 8-30 hours to charge), create market impediments that must be addressed.

https://www.nada.org/legislative/epa...o-far-too-fast

So when is the fed going to lighten up on the mandates? I don't they can admit they made a mistake. It's like ethanol.

https://youtu.be/F-yDKeya4SU

[RoyGBiv]

it's maddening that there doesn't appear to be an equivalent to Goddard's rocket equation in play for EV design, relative to the weight penalty of batteries.

It's maddening that anyone thought that batteries, even LiPO, were ever going to be the answer to portable energy storage without SUBSTANTIAL improvements.... Maybe someday, someone will come up with a more energy dense battery (I'd wager it will look more like a Hydrogen fuel cell than what we think of as a battery today), but, until that happens, plug in EV's are 30 weeks premature fetuses that can't survive out of NICU and destined for failure. All of the money invested in subsidies would have been far, far better invested in primary research, rather than the government picking winners.

In the 1960's solar cell efficiency was about 10% LINK. Today, bleeding edge commercial solar cells can get close to 40%. And they still don't have an acceptable ROI. This sort of patience, time and investment will be required to solve the renewable and net-zero questions. What we have today in EV's is a premature, feel-good, politically motivated cluster. At least there seems to be some reality sinking in recently.