So my dad calls me up and asks me about this rule of 3, but I haven't heard of it. He saw it on the outdoor channel or something like that.
I had a metric ton of questions that he couldn't answer. Some of those questions are posed in this article: https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/de...s-three-yards/
I feel similarly, but I figured I'd start a dumpster fire here so...have at it!
Fairness leads to extinction much faster than harsh parameters.
My understanding is that is drawn from the LEOKA report. So, that's a bad day. Tom Givens has some information from his student-involved shootings that puts a typical encounter at one car length.
I've posted longer versions, but here's my Reader's Digest version:
1) Overall stats are useless because they encompass such a wide variety of situations as to be meaningless.
2) Defense against violent crime can largely be broken down in to three categories: Occupational, Random, Targeted. If you aren't a cop, armored car guard, etc., the first metric is useless to you. If you don't have a crazy ex, aren't dealing drugs, don't owe a seedy biker gang dope money, etc. then the third category is useless to you. What you are concerned with is Random.
3) Random crime very much falls in to that trope of less than 3s, but there are outliers. I kept my own stats solely on cases I could identify as non-criminal actors defending themselves against random crimes. No domestic homicides, no drug dealers defending their turf, no police actions, etc. If I couldn't verify it was a real 'good guy vs bad guy' situation, it was chucked. I ended up with about one hundred cases to pull data from.
Results:
Distances tended to be within double arms length when outside the house.
Shots to resolution was often zero or one. Two or three was reasonably common. More than that was a fairly extreme outlier.
Total shots (what UCR would have) was sometimes higher. This confused some people, but let's say there's a video of the shooting. The bad guy starts to run as the draw stroke is being completed and the good guy fires two misses at the bad guy full sprint across the parking lot. Shots to resolution: Zero. Bad guy was already in flight. Total shots: Two. The two "extra" shots had no effect on the outcome of the fight. If you mag dump but miss every time and the guy is in full flight by shot 3, 3 shots to resolution but much more fired.
People who lost ran out of time before ammo. They got put out of the fight before they could empty their gun, the bad guy was down or in full flight before they emptied their gun, etc.
More shots *generally* equated to more misses. As people move, seek cover, spread out, etc. hit rates go down.
So, from my stats, if random crime is your main concern than 3/3/3 is a pretty solid idea, even if not an exact concrete number.
Sorta around sometimes for some of your shitty mod needs.
This take on Random crime corresponds with Tom Givens observations about how although the majority of Random crime occurs during hours of darkness, it mostly occurs in areas with lighting such as parking lots and gas stations.Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's
Robbers need to be close to rob you And people need to be an interpersonal communication distances to have other types of interpersonal conflict.
Yup. As I pointed out in one of the WML threads, people can't victimize you if they can't see you and people don't shout their robbery or rape across the parking lot. There is the odd active shooter that is the exception, but even the insane shoot just to watch someone die people talked to their victims more often than not.
Sorta around sometimes for some of your shitty mod needs.
I tend to agree that the "most shootings tend to be..." argument for this is BS. I do find it a useful exercise for basic holster skills, and "see what you need to see" in terms of sights. YMMV.
I think what the data show about the majority of defensive handgun uses really only matters with how you use that data.
Are you using that data to justify how bad you shoot? You shouldn't do that. If you can hit the 3X5 at 25y quickly you're probably going to do ok at 3y. If you're barely staying in the zone drawing and shooting quickly at 7y 'Well, rule of 3' is just justifying that you suck and should do better.
When it comes to capacity, is that J-frame in your pocket because you're taking the trash out or is it there because you're fat and you want excuses not to lose the weight?
Most of what I see from statistics on actual use is 'pay attention, dumbass', not 'you don't need to shoot good or have a lot of bullets'.
LEOKA stats are what I call 'negative stats' they aren't inclusive of officers who prevailed - weren't killed or injured. That being said, they were the best trustworthy data available on LEO weapons usage/deaths, etc. over the years.
Based on my research from 1972 (oldest manual I had) until somewhere around 2005ish, it was reported that over 50% of the officers killed by gunfire were within five feet of the assailant at the time of the fatal assault. It looks like in the last decade that number is around 38.6%.
Type of Firearm by Distance Between Victim Officer and Offender, 2010–2019 https://ucr.fbi.gov/leoka/2019/topic...s/table-33.xls
Rounds Fired 2010 - 2019 https://ucr.fbi.gov/leoka/2019/topic...s/table-18.xls
Number of victim officers who did not use and did not attempt to use own firearm: 301 of 511 (bottom portion table 18)
Type of Weapon Used by Assailant 2010 - 2019 https://ucr.fbi.gov/leoka/2019/topic...s/table-28.xls
Adding nothing to the conversation since 2015....
A lot of LE events involves getting within arms length or so to make the physical arrest. I think Tom has it right when he uses the FBI/DEA special agent shooting data.
Greg Ellifritz recently re-published Tom Givens' article on this topic
What Happens in a Civilian Gunfight
You can also find the expanded discussion on this topic in Givens' book
Concealed Carry Class: The ABCs of Self-Defense Tools and Tactics
Craig
VCDL, ACLDN, SAF (Life), GOA, NRA (Benefactor Life), USAF Retired
https://tinyurl.com/craig-trains
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