Bill Wilson and Ken Hackathon's Crystal Ball Predictions

[Hambo]

So a red dot pistol can't pass the air marshal qual? Surely someone here can get that on video.

If I heard him correctly, he said he hasn't met anyone who could/did pass with a dot. That's not the same as "no one can pass."

Here is what I would absolutely love to see: two matched groups of new shooters as in zero experience, one day of training, one group taught on dots by Ben or Hwansik, another group instructed on irons by Hackathorn or Howe, compare results at the end of the day.

I think you'd see pretty equal results, because both sighting systems will work. A one day train up of novices would have some passing, some failing. What you won't see at the end of the experiment are shooters who can make good decisions. Quals are quals. My French teacher called the grammar worksheets we did "idiot drills." Just because you can combine two sentences doesn't mean you understand directions to the men's room.

What always interests me is how invested people are in defending their favorite thing (dot/iron, Ford/Ferrari, Pepsi/Coke). Ken and Paul said a lot of things in that video that are mantra here at PF (dry fire, for example), but let's flip out about one qual and iron/dot. I'm going to clear my 19 and dryfire...with irons, because I haven't bought a SCS for it yet.

[JHC]

In each of I think three YT videos where RDS sights for carry is touched on, Hackathorn says "if you're one of the 1 percenters that shoot weekly or more and dry fire frequently and consistently then rock on." Instead of butt hurt, RDS aficionados might take that as a compliment.


During most of the past year I've been dry firing training my draw and index with a 407 CO almost daily and shooting it predominantly in live fire weekly or very close to weekly. It's mad fun and I saw significant advantages to precision at 15 and 25 yards both slow fire and under time pressure. It was a damn "easy button" that leaves you grinning ear to ear.

I went back and forth on carrying it. Sometimes I did but if I had a bad range session where I fumbled my index a lot I'd switch off of it until remedial work from the draw got me back on track.

I figured I was one of the one percenters that should be good to go.

During the period of Thanksgiving through Christmas '23 travel and family events disrupted my regimen of dry fire and live fire and coming off of that into the new year I found my dot index to have suffered badly.

I got back to work to get it up to speed but a few other considerations occurred to me in recent weeks.

My index needs to be right on, like really on point, for my first hit from the holster at speed at 5 and 7 yards to match irons. If it's off and I have to shift to irons (excellent co-witness with .315 high vis front sight), I loose a few tenths of seconds in that OODA process. If I don't shift to irons and try and shoot the window, results sucked.

All of this is for my square range free style and SHO.

This engagement range encompasses the vast majority of civilian self defense events. I very much prefer to have long pistol range capability and I do with irons and the RDS, just more so with the RDS.

I've heard way more advanced dot shooters than I say they're still a tick faster with irons up close, but prefer the greater capability of the RDS in other ways (range, low light, movement etc). Cool. One explained that close and very fast iron shooting lets you "cheat" your index as you see the entire slide/sights aligning in the draw towards full index.

Hold that thought.

If my index is spot on my 5 or 7 yard shots at speed can match my irons. On days when the index is off, then the irons are more consistently quick for good hits.

How good is my index going to be if I've taken an incoming round to one of my forearms? Or elsewhere. Or if a family member has grabbed a hold of me in panic contrary to our SOP?

I could do endless scenarios where I'll take the "cheating" of the iron sighted pistol presentation for the ranges I'm most like to be really in the shit.

So these issues have made me realize that

A. maybe I'm not a one percenter after all

B. I've got some preferred venues for the RDS G47 but it's not necessarily primary daily concealed carry.

C. I've got more work to do on "Dot/No Dot" drills which is a way to shorten that OODA penalty of expecting the dot and not immediatly finding it.

Back to Hackathorn vids, his definitions of the one percenters vs Joe average gun owner is pretty plain. One trains a LOT and the other doesn't "train" so much as go out to shoot a few times a year.

After my year of a lot of work with my RDS - then considering the conditions under which I'd like to "cheat" my index at close range, I don't see any controversy at all.

[Hambo]

In each of I think three YT videos where RDS sights for carry is touched on, Hackathorn says "if you're one of the 1 percenters that shoot weekly or more and dry fire frequently and consistently then rock on." Instead of butt hurt, RDS aficionados might take that as a compliment.


During most of the past year I've been dry firing training my draw and index with a 407 CO almost daily and shooting it predominantly in live fire weekly or very close to weekly. It's mad fun and I saw significant advantages to precision at 15 and 25 yards both slow fire and under time pressure. It was a damn "easy button" that leaves you grinning ear to ear.

I went back and forth on carrying it. Sometimes I did but if I had a bad range session where I fumbled my index a lot I'd switch off of it until remedial work from the draw got me back on track.

I figured I was one of the one percenters that should be good to go.

During the period of Thanksgiving through Christmas '23 travel and family events disrupted my regimen of dry fire and live fire and coming off of that into the new year I found my dot index to have suffered badly.

I got back to work to get it up to speed but a few other considerations occurred to me in recent weeks.

My index needs to be right on, like really on point, for my first hit from the holster at speed at 5 and 7 yards to match irons. If it's off and I have to shift to irons (excellent co-witness with .315 high vis front sight), I loose a few tenths of seconds in that OODA process. If I don't shift to irons and try and shoot the window, results sucked.

All of this is for my square range free style and SHO.

This engagement range encompasses the vast majority of civilian self defense events. I very much prefer to have long pistol range capability and I do with irons and the RDS, just more so with the RDS.

I've heard way more advanced dot shooters than I say they're still a tick faster with irons up close, but prefer the greater capability of the RDS in other ways (range, low light, movement etc). Cool. One explained that close and very fast iron shooting lets you "cheat" your index as you see the entire slide/sights aligning in the draw towards full index.

Hold that thought.

If my index is spot on my 5 or 7 yard shots at speed can match my irons. On days when the index is off, then the irons are more consistently quick for good hits.

How good is my index going to be if I've taken an incoming round to one of my forearms? Or elsewhere. Or if a family member has grabbed a hold of me in panic contrary to our SOP?

I could do endless scenarios where I'll take the "cheating" of the iron sighted pistol presentation for the ranges I'm most like to be really in the shit.

So these issues have made me realize that

A. maybe I'm not a one percenter after all

B. I've got some preferred venues for the RDS G47 but it's not necessarily primary daily concealed carry.

C. I've got more work to do on "Dot/No Dot" drills which is a way to shorten that OODA penalty of expecting the dot and not immediatly finding it.

Back to Hackathorn vids, his definitions of the one percenters vs Joe average gun owner is pretty plain. One trains a LOT and the other doesn't "train" so much as go out to shoot a few times a year.

After my year of a lot of work with my RDS - then considering the conditions under which I'd like to "cheat" my index at close range, I don't see any controversy at all.

Thanks for posting that. I think it's pretty clear from my history here that I am not an early adopter of anything. I've been pleasantly surprised by the 19 Gen 5, especially its accuracy and my ability to shoot it well. My index with one of the added backstraps is very good. I started out with The Test (standard shitty G sights) and found it easy to shoot it cold. Then I installed 10-8 sights. On an outdoor range trip, I shot my 10-12" plate at 30-35 yards and was 100%. That's not B8s, but it sounds like I know WTF I'm doing, right? Maybe not.

@SouthNarc's PCP thread has had me thinking about reality vs. square range. What are the odds I'm going to be in stand up gunfight vs. some form of FUT/non-standard stance? Standard skills are good. Sighting systems are good. Quals and drills help us measure our improvement over time, but will any of that matter much when trying not to get stabbed up behind the Tasty Freeze?

I still want an SCS, but maybe on another 19.

[Gary1911A1]

I didn't see this video posted here, but here's a video with Ken's thoughts on Stage 1 of the Air Marshall Test.
https://youtu.be/Es7ZvlmHkPI?si=lGapGviYBus8f4Jw

[feudist]

In each of I think three YT videos where RDS sights for carry is touched on, Hackathorn says "if you're one of the 1 percenters that shoot weekly or more and dry fire frequently and consistently then rock on." Instead of butt hurt, RDS aficionados might take that as a compliment.


During most of the past year I've been dry firing training my draw and index with a 407 CO almost daily and shooting it predominantly in live fire weekly or very close to weekly. It's mad fun and I saw significant advantages to precision at 15 and 25 yards both slow fire and under time pressure. It was a damn "easy button" that leaves you grinning ear to ear.

I went back and forth on carrying it. Sometimes I did but if I had a bad range session where I fumbled my index a lot I'd switch off of it until remedial work from the draw got me back on track.

I figured I was one of the one percenters that should be good to go.

During the period of Thanksgiving through Christmas '23 travel and family events disrupted my regimen of dry fire and live fire and coming off of that into the new year I found my dot index to have suffered badly.

I got back to work to get it up to speed but a few other considerations occurred to me in recent weeks.

My index needs to be right on, like really on point, for my first hit from the holster at speed at 5 and 7 yards to match irons. If it's off and I have to shift to irons (excellent co-witness with .315 high vis front sight), I loose a few tenths of seconds in that OODA process. If I don't shift to irons and try and shoot the window, results sucked.

All of this is for my square range free style and SHO.

This engagement range encompasses the vast majority of civilian self defense events. I very much prefer to have long pistol range capability and I do with irons and the RDS, just more so with the RDS.

I've heard way more advanced dot shooters than I say they're still a tick faster with irons up close, but prefer the greater capability of the RDS in other ways (range, low light, movement etc). Cool. One explained that close and very fast iron shooting lets you "cheat" your index as you see the entire slide/sights aligning in the draw towards full index.

Hold that thought.

If my index is spot on my 5 or 7 yard shots at speed can match my irons. On days when the index is off, then the irons are more consistently quick for good hits.

How good is my index going to be if I've taken an incoming round to one of my forearms? Or elsewhere. Or if a family member has grabbed a hold of me in panic contrary to our SOP?

I could do endless scenarios where I'll take the "cheating" of the iron sighted pistol presentation for the ranges I'm most like to be really in the shit.

So these issues have made me realize that

A. maybe I'm not a one percenter after all

B. I've got some preferred venues for the RDS G47 but it's not necessarily primary daily concealed carry.

C. I've got more work to do on "Dot/No Dot" drills which is a way to shorten that OODA penalty of expecting the dot and not immediatly finding it.

Back to Hackathorn vids, his definitions of the one percenters vs Joe average gun owner is pretty plain. One trains a LOT and the other doesn't "train" so much as go out to shoot a few times a year.

After my year of a lot of work with my RDS - then considering the conditions under which I'd like to "cheat" my index at close range, I don't see any controversy at all.

One thing a dot showed me in no uncertain term is that the Glock 19 I've carried for coming up on 30 years indexes high for me. I was apparently shooting slightly out of the notch.
Huh.
I went at it hard for a while and started getting comfortable with it and then left Patrol. I stopped constantly practicing and my presentation fell apart.
So, I could either try a different gun, or just Luddite my way back to irons. Since I was close to the end of my career I just stuck with the Glock.
Had I continued to work the street I would have either endeavored to persevere with my Glock or switched over to something more 1911ey in grip angle.
So I sympathize with an old dog not wanting to learn new tricks.

[fatdog]

A. maybe I'm not a one percenter after all

B. I've got some preferred venues for the RDS G47 but it's not necessarily primary daily concealed carry.

C. I've got more work to do on "Dot/No Dot" drills which is a way to shorten that OODA penalty of expecting the dot and not immediately finding it.

Your full description of your experience on this subject closely mirrors my own over a longer period, say 3 years. That 3-7 yard distance is where I have never seen a true "timers and targets" dot advantage, and on certain days I am simply not in the groove and it is materially slower by tenths. My dominant hand, non-dominant hand is something I am working on a lot, but my performance still gets much worse in terms of index consistency. Past 10-12 yards that whole timers and targets thing flips and gets better the further I go.

I continue to work on all of it, and plan to do so for the years left in my shooting life, I find it enjoyable and challenging. Something where dry and live fire delivers improvement on all aspects of it.

Something I never read or hear discussed in all of this is the differences in hand/eye coordination that exist in humans, and how that influences our ability to index well and consistently. Being part of that 1%, or the ease with which it is achieved most certainly has something to do with this. We are not all the same.

I always sucked at shooting a basketball, no matter how hard I practiced or wanted to (growing up in KY everybody wanted to) or how many coaches worked with me. But I could aim my whole body well enough to excel at football when it came to tackling or blocking. I am not in any top group of hand/eye skills, and I am convinced that pistol shooting, especially the indexed dot has a lot to do with what level of what we often refer to as hand/eye coordination you have in terms of how easy, or how hard this is. And of course how hard you have to work, how many reps, how often, etc. you must put in Vs what somebody else can do to achieve the same level of proficiency.

The whole "all you need is XXX number dry reps" thing I have heard mouthed by some is simply not true for everybody. It may be for some, but not for me.

For now irons are more frequently in my holster because my irons performance more closely aligns with the scenarios I am most likely to face in a defensive shooting. Not the "Dicken Drill".

I believe that accurate first shot hit is the most critical thing in terms of time in any defensive scenario. I have come to the conclusion that hiking in the national forest is where a dot is now my preferred side arm, because the defensive distances for that first shot could quite easily spread out.

[Noah]

@JHC great honest post. I carried a dot 2020-2022 then actually went back to irons in the summer of 2022, due to some honest introspection about my concealment and practice levels with a newborn and another on the way. Going back to irons after lots of practice with the dot was really eye opening. I remember my first range trip with irons was kind of an accident. I just wanted to check out the PX4CC before I sent it to LTT to get cut for a dot. I learned 2 important things- I was absolutely a tenth or two quicker with the irons on draws under 10 yards with what felt like less effort, and I actually had an easier time holding target focus.

Long story short, in the year and a half since then, I've gotten much better dry practice methods and learned much better use of my vision in shooting, and actually started competing which was very eye opening. I've had a lingering thought of, "I wonder how I could do with a dot now that I'm a completely different shooter than I was when I had a dot before". I had the unexpected opportunity to get a dot with minimal expenditure a few weeks ago and did it, so I'm very interested to compare.

I will say, my first range trip out with the dot, with just one or 2 dry practice sessions, I smoked my prior PR shooting a Bakersfield qual on a B8 with hit factor scoring, which I've used as a baseline static shooting test for the last year or so.

I do think the SCS I am using ( @Hambo ) has a real advantage in that it is so low to the slide with standard irons that the index feels very easy and just lining up the slide in front of your face is perhaps more likely to give you the dot than with a higher mounted dot which is more "floating up in space". If I mentally "visualize" my established irons index, the dot is in the window and on the target very easily, more effortlessly than the dot setups I have used in the past which as JHC noted, have a very perishable index.

[GJM]

Lots of good discussion here, and I am sure Ken is waking up in Idaho, and enjoying his coffee as he sees all he has stirred up here. A few thoughts:

1) the request for Ken's version of the test isn't to draw him in to a conversation, as I have never seen him post here. It is to understand his version of the test, so when someone goes to the effort to do it, they are doing it as Ken would.

2) lots of discussion about irons vs a dot at "typical" self defense distances. I believe most would be better off with irons, for all the reasons cited above.

3) my interest is in Ken's belief, assuming the "he observed" qualifier doesn't hold, that a dot somehow makes the AM test harder. First, you need to examine the test. This is really a concealed draw and low ready test, with a bit of trigger control, and even less of an accuracy component. My belief is that virtually anyone who can pass it with a dot can do it with irons, and vice versa.

The best way of unraveling this would be to have beers in Salmon with Ken, and then reconvene at the range the following morning to put it to timer.

[Trooper224]

Thanks for posting that. I think it's pretty clear from my history here that I am not an early adopter of anything. I've been pleasantly surprised by the 19 Gen 5, especially its accuracy and my ability to shoot it well. My index with one of the added backstraps is very good. I started out with The Test (standard shitty G sights) and found it easy to shoot it cold. Then I installed 10-8 sights. On an outdoor range trip, I shot my 10-12" plate at 30-35 yards and was 100%. That's not B8s, but it sounds like I know WTF I'm doing, right? Maybe not.

@SouthNarc's PCP thread has had me thinking about reality vs. square range. What are the odds I'm going to be in stand up gunfight vs. some form of FUT/non-standard stance? Standard skills are good. Sighting systems are good. Quals and drills help us measure our improvement over time, but will any of that matter much when trying not to get stabbed up behind the Tasty Freeze?

I still want an SCS, but maybe on another 19.

Yes, those things matter. But, they're artificial metrics created in a fixed environment. Most people have never had the stabbin at the Stuckeys experience and those metrics are their only guage, so they tend to be overemphasized. They do matter though. Because, for most they're the only way to guage progress and ability.

[mmc45414]

I think this discussion always gets to be too binary. There is no doubt I can do almost everything better and faster with a RDO, but I do not want to be defenseless with a set of good sights.

I think consistency is a factor, I primarily shot M&Ps, almost weekly, for a long time. I had a lovely affair with a 5" 9mm 1911 for a year or two, but in 2019 I switched back to a 5" M&P. In early 2022 I bought a fresh one and had it direct milled for an SRO. I think sticking with the same pistol (it was even the same SKU...) and going with a large window option, combined with a press-out presentation, made for a fairly simple transition. I still struggle weak hand, but that is a universal struggle (I do think the optic helps, but it is tough sledding no matter what). If you trade between a G19 with and a Hellcat without, maybe that is going to exacerbate the challenge.

I never quit carrying guns with sights, and still do, and I can still shoot them well enough to be confident. A few months ago I left my RDO pistol in the safe by mistake and shot the 4" Compact that day at three gun. I gave up a few seconds, but I do not win by a larger margin than a few seconds. I recently bought a couple of the Shield Plus, neither with optics, and am hitting with them pretty well. If I was kicking doors and serving warrants I wouldn't leave home without the optic, but I am OK with going to the grocery with a Shield Plus.

Another thing that is a consideration that is relevant to me and especially new shooters, is the quality optics cost almost as much as the pistols, oh by the way...