Cryptocurrency

[RevolverRob]

I've been looking to invest in cryptocurrency tracking technology. Things that can track exchanges will be very useful tools in the near future.

While I tend to agree with Neph that the value of Crypto is hyper inflated due to speculation; the exchange of crypto for goods, particularly illicit transactions, has made it a fundamental staple of our world now. Thus, to me, the future of crypto is tracking those transactions. Bitcoin and crypto set off a new evolutionary arms race. The near term future is in tracking crypto transactions. And then it's in the new crypto currency that emerges to counteract.

[jh9]

Not realty. Neither can effectively function as currency, both have value based purely on speculation. Those two are better established perhaps but fundamentally no different

The fact that we’re talking about them on P-F is a sign that the top of the market probably isn’t too far off

Yeah. BTC didn't hit $65k/coin or whatever due to some intrinsic value someone discovered. There's a theoretically finite supply and people with money bought a ton of it. If it was still just for nerds it'd be worth less than a pizza. Wall St buys and sells all the time. By the time common folk realize it's in freefall and trying to catch a falling knife it'll be too late. It's a penny stock that got big. Everyone wishing they shoulda got in on bitcoin 10 years ago could just as easily wish they got in on NFLX in 2005.

That's not even touching the monetary cost of the power used in 'mining'. Or the fact that a zero day security vulnerability can take the value to zero in an instant. Or the fact that Elon Musk can noticeably manipulate the value of it with a tweet. "Crypto" still has the worst aspect of fiat currency-- no intrinsic value-- but is dependent on things that do have intrinsic value (i.e. electricity and hardware) to keep it running.

The USD has a global hegemony backing it. Stocks have value as they are ownership of the underlying company that is presumably valuable because it makes or provides something. (Non-Junk) Bonds have value because the backing entity promising capital plus interest has value because of something they make or provide. Crypto has none of that. It's random numbers that people want enough other people to agree on having value with nothing else involved, and it exists in a world where we can't even agree that a global pandemic is both real and probably not great for us. Once the speculators move on to the next shiny it's going to be as valuable as Enron stock.

[Darth_Uno]

The fact that we’re talking about them on P-F is a sign that the top of the market probably isn’t too far off

Like the old saying goes, when's the best time to sell? When your cab (guess it'd be Uber now) driver tells you to buy.

I started the thread because I actually had a customer ask if he could pay for a 60k job with Litecoin. I told him we're not set up for that yet. I'm not opposed in principle. But I can't just sit on it and hope it appreciates (I need those funds for cash flow) and I can't pay my subs and vendors with LTC. And of course there's the risk that my 60k is worth 30k a week from now.

[JRB]

Yeah. BTC didn't hit $65k/coin or whatever due to some intrinsic value someone discovered. There's a theoretically finite supply and people with money bought a ton of it. If it was still just for nerds it'd be worth less than a pizza. Wall St buys and sells all the time. By the time common folk realize it's in freefall and trying to catch a falling knife it'll be too late. It's a penny stock that got big. Everyone wishing they shoulda got in on bitcoin 10 years ago could just as easily wish they got in on NFLX in 2005.

That's not even touching the monetary cost of the power used in 'mining'. Or the fact that a zero day security vulnerability can take the value to zero in an instant. Or the fact that Elon Musk can noticeably manipulate the value of it with a tweet. "Crypto" still has the worst aspect of fiat currency-- no intrinsic value-- but is dependent on things that do have intrinsic value (i.e. electricity and hardware) to keep it running.

The USD has a global hegemony backing it. Stocks have value as they are ownership of the underlying company that is presumably valuable because it makes or provides something. (Non-Junk) Bonds have value because the backing entity promising capital plus interest has value because of something they make or provide. Crypto has none of that. It's random numbers that people want enough other people to agree on having value with nothing else involved, and it exists in a world where we can't even agree that a global pandemic is both real and probably not great for us. Once the speculators move on to the next shiny it's going to be as valuable as Enron stock.

I read countless posts like this many years ago, so I sold my 3 BTC coins when they were just under $2k each. I was happy for then-solid gain, and I felt like I was dodging a bullet. Then it just kept going up and here we are today.

My conclusion is that crypto is an entirely different thing than buying ETF's or stocks or anything like that, and anyone considering crypto through the lens of typical Wall Street investment strategies has been perpetually doomed to get it exactly wrong.

[NWshooter]

I’ve been mining all year on an Apple IIc

Not a lot of success

[TGS]

I’ve been mining all year on an Apple IIC.

Not a lot of success

Gotta get yourself a turbo encabulator, it'll make the difference.

[jh9]

just kept going up and here we are today.

Yeah, I know. Lies, damned lies and statistics. Move the time range around to tell whatever story you want. Wind the clock back to when Enron was publicly traded if you want to see a spectacular burnout.

What I'm getting at is "just kept going up and up" is not unique to bitcoin.

My conclusion is that crypto is an entirely different thing than buying ETF's or stocks or anything like that, and anyone considering crypto through the lens of typical Wall Street investment strategies has been perpetually doomed to get it exactly wrong.

It's almost exactly the same. Speculation on bitcoin is no different than penny stocks, TSLA or even tulips (as Nephrology alluded to earlier).

It may go up more. It almost certainly will. But it's not the only thing that will, and since its value is driven entirely by speculation rather than any sort of underlying fundamental value, then don't forget zero is a valid place it stops.

BTC is gambling, not investing. Which is fine, but a lot of people are wearing rose colored glasses because this time it's different.

[RevolverRob]

Like the old saying goes, when's the best time to sell? When your cab (guess it'd be Uber now) driver tells you to buy.

I started the thread because I actually had a customer ask if he could pay for a 60k job with Litecoin. I told him we're not set up for that yet. I'm not opposed in principle. But I can't just sit on it and hope it appreciates (I need those funds for cash flow) and I can't pay my subs and vendors with LTC. And of course there's the risk that my 60k is worth 30k a week from now.

He can sell his Litecoin and pay you in cash, then. I'm not opposed to it in principle either, but I think you're right. Look the dollar is suffering against inflation right now. But at the end of the day a dollar is worth a dollar and it can be exchanged for goods and services. A BTC is worth whatever it's worth right now, but could be worth 0 in the future. A dollar will never be worth half of it's face currency, you just may not be able to buy what you need with that single dollar.

The concept that crypto is inflation proof is also fallacious. No currency is inflation proof - if cost of goods and services goes up the amount of currency needed to buy them goes up, period the end. Even if your currency is worth more than it was yesterday it still won't matter in the end.

Also, I'm not saying your customer was trying this but it seems a bunch of folks think crypto is a key to avoid taxation and transaction tracking. When the IRS audits you - and you can't explain how your house was paid for - expect a more thorough inquiry to follow. If you do explain you traded stocks or crypto for it, you're still going to have to pay tax...

[David S.]

Like the old saying goes, when's the best time to sell? When your cab (guess it'd be Uber now) driver tells you to buy.

I started the thread because I actually had a customer ask if he could pay for a 60k job with Litecoin. I told him we're not set up for that yet. I'm not opposed in principle. But I can't just sit on it and hope it appreciates (I need those funds for cash flow) and I can't pay my subs and vendors with LTC. And of course there's the risk that my 60k is worth 30k a week from now.

Is there any part of the contract that would require you to hold it in crypto for any period of time? If not, it's fairly simple to accept it and immediately sell it for dollars using an exchange like Coinbase. The funds would go directly into your Paypal or bank's ACH account.

The sell order may take a few days but you'll get the conversion rate at the time of transaction minus a processing fee. Presumably, it also creates a couple extra hoops that your accountant and tax person may have to deal with.

[Clusterfrack]

There is no way I would accept crypto as payment. Client can sell their crypto and pay me cash.

If I want to gamble on crypto, I’ll do it myself.