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Thread: Worst case scenario

  1. #1

    Worst case scenario

    I have heard this phrase at least half a dozen times this past week or so and a lot in the past. This got me thinking of my own idea of what is a worst case scenario as it relates to personal protection arena and how I attempt to prepare for it. Obviously everyone is different and has their own ideas of what constitutes a worst case scenario but it is interesting to hear what people think is theirs.

    Mine has changed since retiring from law enforcement and leaving Metro Detroit for rural farm country. I look at worst case scenarios in 2 general categories possible and probable. It is possible (and has happened) to face a determined attacker equipped with a battle rifle, at long distance, behind cover and not drunk or on drugs. I think of the Texas tower shooting in 66 or the more recent Las Vegas Mandalay Bay shooting. Most anything I leave the house with would be pretty useless against a scenario like these. For something I may more likely face would be a couple young violent criminals that have used violence in the past who catch me off guard and have firearms but stay at some distance eliminating the possibility to use unarmed or contact weapons/techniques and have no hesitation to shoot or kill and want to leave no witnesses to their crime. It is fairly typical but with multiple armed attackers with firearms, who have the drop with guns out and keeping some distance means compliance isn't an option, unarmed or contact weapons are useless and any counter would start either from the drop before the attackers start shooting or likely after they start. Regardless it is what I consider a more probable worst case scenario.

    I'm curious to hear what worst case scenarios others have contemplated and their attempts to minimize or deal with such situations.

  2. #2
    Live close enough to an elementary school that I would hear the screams.

    Plan is to head in with my med bag and a Vertx sling bag, no visible weapons, hi-vis vest and just starting providing aid to the first shot kid I see, after 911 call.

    I've put a fair amount of thought into it and talked to some squared away people about it and it's the best plan. But the plan involves me tq-ing a screaming bloody kid while I possibly hear shots, which might be the cops engaging the shooter or might be the shooter shooting more schoolkids. Running around with a gun trying to find the shooter instead of aiding kids I could directly help is a bad plan, but it's easier to say that when you can't hear kids getting shot. Maybe.

    Worse, my own kid might go there in a few years. I know what I should do if I find a kid I can help instead of going to find my own son, and I know what I would want another dad to do. I just don't know if I can do it.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by MickAK View Post
    Live close enough to an elementary school that I would hear the screams.

    Plan is to head in with my med bag and a Vertx sling bag, no visible weapons, hi-vis vest and just starting providing aid to the first shot kid I see, after 911 call.

    I've put a fair amount of thought into it and talked to some squared away people about it and it's the best plan. But the plan involves me tq-ing a screaming bloody kid while I possibly hear shots, which might be the cops engaging the shooter or might be the shooter shooting more schoolkids. Running around with a gun trying to find the shooter instead of aiding kids I could directly help is a bad plan, but it's easier to say that when you can't hear kids getting shot. Maybe.

    Worse, my own kid might go there in a few years. I know what I should do if I find a kid I can help instead of going to find my own son, and I know what I would want another dad to do. I just don't know if I can do it.
    I'm a fourth grade teacher and my son is in Kinder. If I hear shots his side of the school I don't know what I will do.

  4. #4
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Seminole Texas
    Worst case for me is any defensive scenario with an incapacitated arm or leg.

  5. #5
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    ABQ, NM
    Living in Albuquerque is pretty 'spicy' at times. The DOJ has basically rendered ineffective our entire city PD.

    To that end, there's two possible WCS's in my area:

    Being in the wrong place at the wrong time, such as being in the middle of a mess like this:
    https://www.koat.com/article/police-...rque/37349594#
    (Four APD officers shot and wounded in two different engagements by a single armed robber at/near a coffee shop, coincidentally about 2 blocks from my house)

    And reaching the calculus of 'it's time to draw and shoot this guy' just in time to be mistakenly ID'd by additional responding officers as the perpetrator.
    There's no real way to plan around that, at least, not without having eyes in the back of my head or being omnipotent, so it's a stressful thought.
    So if there's officers already on-scene, I'd prioritize rendering aid to any victims instead, unless due to positioning/opportunity I had that perfect chance to engage the perpetrator and end it there.


    The second WCS I can foresee in ABQ is ending up by myself against a coordinated mugging/attack from 3-4+ assailants with small knives and brass knuckles, or just their fists, and being the only guy in the mix with a gun and having to decide if/when/how to escalate to lethal force. While justifiable self-defense standards would be met for lethal force, local politicians and the local DA would absolutely love to see a professional, clean-record service member dragged over the coals in a case like that, and they've done it before to other local service members and GS civilians in the past.
    Basically, unless it's the cleanest and most open-shut case of self defense hypothetically possible, I can expect to have the book thrown at me, a lengthy, expensive, and terrible legal battle, and my career ruined. So avoidance at all costs has become my personal 'Rule #1'. Avoiding 'dumb places at dumb times' helps immensely, and so far so good.

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