Shipping container Inflation! (700%)

[Borderland]

The only catch, and what I am sure he was demonstrating is what "almost" happened to me and just something to be aware of.

In May of 2001 I moved to Clarksville TN and bought a very nice house in a very nice new subdivision. I paid $150k for the house. ($232,466 in 2021 according to CPI data). Then 9/11 happened.

Not only did we have a serious economic crisis but being a military town, there were a lot of shakeups in people leaving/coming etc that seriously depressed the housing market (and had the potential to have been much worse). So the house that I purchased for $150k was suddenly worth significantly less, but my mortgage was still for $142k (5% down with PMI). So I was in a job that I hated, that was in jeopardy, with a house that I owed more for than I could sell it for. This was not even considering the 6% closing costs that I would have to pay to a realtor to sell it.

The first few years that I was making my payments, very little was going to the principal of the loan. Instead, I was paying exclusively interest.

In effect, I was "renting it" from the bank for the interest payments and wasn't building any equity at all and wouldn't for several years.

"Luckily" I was in the house/job for 7 years, which wound up being enough time for the market/economy to recover enough that when I sold, I did not have to take a haircut and luckily got out selling it for $185k minus my closing costs but I still owed the bank a significant amount of money because even at 7 years in to a 30 yr mortgage my payment was very biased towards interest over principal. A few months after selling the even bigger housing crash of 2008/09 happened. If I had waited just a few more months to sell, it is very likely I would have owed money when I sold the house after paying closing costs.

Over a long period of time, it definitely makes more sense to own than rent since you "earn" the imputed rent that you don't have to pay once you have your home paid for. But there is a point that the rent vs own intersects and normally, in the short term, you will be better of renting than owning. If you have a stable job and you plan on staying in the area/home long term, you absolutely should buy. If you job is unstable and you may be transferred or you may decide you don't want to live there in less time that it takes to make that intersection point, you could very well lose money, sometimes A LOT if we hit a major rough patch in the economy/area.

But you have to roll the die either way.

I was going to say something like this but this is much better than I could do. My experience with owning has been about the same. Up until I was 30 ish I rented. I was always traveling for work and rarely where my stuff was. It made no sense to own and I probably couldn't have secured a loan anyway. I got married, got a local job and purchased a house, sold it and purchased a second one. The marriage lasted about 8 years and I kept the house. Sold that one eventually and purchased another one. In the mean time remarried and divorced again.

So I've rented and owned 3 houses. My take is, as Crow Hunter says, it depends. The best way to own is buy in a market trough when interest is low. Then be in a situation where you can build some equity over time. Even with that the home owner is totally dependent on the market when they sell. There may be long periods where the real estate market only increases your value 1 or 2% a year. I've seen that. Around 2008 I knew several people that just walked away from a house/loan because they owed a lot more on the house then it was worth.

It's looking like that may happen again. Interest is low but prices are inflated. Personally I don't think it's a good time to buy. I would be renting for a few years to see where the market goes. I read real estate columns stating that prices will never come down and real estate will just keep getting more expensive. I'm wondering who they think will be buying all of those houses. It won't be boomers because they will be looking to downsize into condos and apts. Millennials maybe but with a trashed economy and inflation (regardless what the man behind the curtain says) is going to devalue real estate yugely. I'm already seeing prices dropping in my area. In a few years they will be back to 2018 levels. That's my guess.

[peterb]

A positive step?
——————-

The White House is announcing that the Port of Los Angeles has agreed to essentially double its hours and go to 24/7 operations. In doing so, it's joining the Port of Long Beach, which launched similar nighttime and weekend shifts a few weeks ago.

Together, the two California ports handle about 40% of the container traffic that enters the United States.

Their commitment to launch 24/7 operations is "a big deal," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told NPR's Asma Khalid. "You can think of that as basically opening the gates. Next, we've got to make sure that we have all of the other players going through those gates, getting the containers off of the ship so that there's room for the next ship, getting those containers out to where they need to be. That involves trains, that involves trucks, so many steps between the ship and the shelves."

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/13/10455...s-at-u-s-ports

[Caballoflaco]

A positive step?
——————-

The White House is announcing that the Port of Los Angeles has agreed to essentially double its hours and go to 24/7 operations. In doing so, it's joining the Port of Long Beach, which launched similar nighttime and weekend shifts a few weeks ago.

Together, the two California ports handle about 40% of the container traffic that enters the United States.

Their commitment to launch 24/7 operations is "a big deal," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told NPR's Asma Khalid. "You can think of that as basically opening the gates. Next, we've got to make sure that we have all of the other players going through those gates, getting the containers off of the ship so that there's room for the next ship, getting those containers out to where they need to be. That involves trains, that involves trucks, so many steps between the ship and the shelves."

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/13/10455...s-at-u-s-ports

I’m sitting on the other side of the continent wondering why this hasn’t happened months ago.

[Oldherkpilot]

I’m sitting on the other side of the continent wondering why this hasn’t happened months ago.

Ditto

[peterb]

I’m sitting on the other side of the continent wondering why this hasn’t happened months ago.

Agreed. Given what we’ve heard about worker shortages, it may have been a lack of people, or fighting about who would pay the higher salaries needed to attract another shift.

[OlongJohnson]

To the best of my knowledge, everyone who works on the docks is unionized. I wonder how much of it involved non-reported negotiations with the unions about stepping it up.

There's also the issue of human performance in what is normally a pretty fast-paced, high-stress activity where small mistakes can have huge consequences. Pushing individual employees into an area where they are more likely to make mistakes could be counterproductive, while hiring new employees and getting them up to speed has not been easy.

[fly out]

Not saying it's true, or that it's not just fingerpointing, but I read that this 24-hour operation was tried, and the restrictions on which trucks were allowed entrance to the port just shifted the jam to containers not being able to be trucked out.

[OlongJohnson]

Details on the restrictions? Does it have anything to do with them having to be "green," as in EV, hybrid, super ultra low emission tractors, etc? Or is it more operational, like driver training/certification for operating in that environment, number of trucks per hour, etc?

[Joe in PNG]

Ever read WWII history, and the repeated tales of Wehrmacht quartermasters refusing to release essential supplies to troops even when the Red Army was knocking on their doors, because the proper procedures weren't followed?

Kinda like that.

[RoyGBiv]

Details on the restrictions? Does it have anything to do with them having to be "green," as in EV, hybrid, super ultra low emission tractors, etc? Or is it more operational, like driver training/certification for operating in that environment, number of trucks per hour, etc?

Union