Shipping container Inflation! (700%)

[jh9]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...vid-by-age-us/

Over 50% of the deaths were aged 75 and up, which were never part of the of the labor force... If anything we've seen a net reduction in people not in the labor force due to COVID deaths of people who had already aged out of the work force.

580k of the 680k deaths were 65+

You keep saying "show me the data" and then keep ignoring it. People who could work, aren't. Lots of possible why's, but it's not even remotely debatable that it's the current reality.

GMJ's post about people "participating in the labor force" included everyone age 16 and older. That definition, AFAIK, has no exclusion for people under 16 but also over any other age. Those 65 year olds are included in the data. Not everyone at that age is retired. The part time greeters at Wal Mart who need more quarters to qualify for social security are included.

Also, I'm not "ignoring the data". I'm ignoring this fabricated reality you want to live in where the missing 4 million people in the labor force all decided to be Reaganesque welfare queens who just are too lazy to work so you can bitch about them. The "why's" and "where did they go once the money ran out" are fundamental to the discussion.

As it is, there are apparently 4 million people who were working before covid that aren't now. Some of them are, in no particular order:

• dead from covid
• in the hospital due to covid
• on disability due to covid
• said 'screw it' and retired
• suddenly became Dave Ramsey devotees who are stretching their $1200/mo federal benefits in an act of fiscal responsibility hitherto unexercised by the average American
• suckling at the teat of unemployment benefits that ran out
• Something Else (tm)

Since UI is a state-by-state thing, maybe some states are still extending UI benefits. Though it seems like California, where the shipping container backup is, ended the extended UI benefits on Sep 11. Which appears to be data that you're ignoring: there's no more teat to suckle at.

edit: I'd love to see the breakdown of exactly where those people went, but I doubt it exists. Maybe there are still state-level benefits being paid out in some places. But it's an act of unproven wishful thinking to assume people sitting at home who could work but just aren't comprise the majority.

[TGS]

As someone that took the view that people are choosing to not work, thank you for breaking that down, @jh9.

[littlejerry]

The Labor Force Participation Rate accounts for people employed and unemployed over 16 years old. That does not include institutionalized individuals and those who are not seeking employment. You have to keep in mind BLS defines unemployed as someone seeking employment.

The employment population ratio is simple: How many people are working vs how many people are alive:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employmen...tion-ratio.htm

This shows roughly 10 million people not working that were.

[JAD]

That's true. Nobody wants to hear it but it's true. Everybody wants to bring out the lazy strawman who doesn't want to work but the reality is that the people who actually work for a living have leverage now, and they're using that to work at places that benefit them. That it might not benefit The Economy as a whole isn't their concern nor should it be.

Employers are mad because now they don't hold all the cards anymore. I think it's a good thing TBH. The unspoken notion that we have an entire class of sacrificial Morlocks who are supposed to grind themselves into dust creating an infinite novelty machine so the Eloi can get cheap imported shit from Amazon every 2 days is a problem, not a solution. If someone is going to bust their ass for 60 hours a week to enable the widget pipeline that drives the economy then maybe they should be paid commiserate to the value they create. And if this company won't, another one will.

"I have never met a man more fair, candid, and honest" -- HG Wells, regarding J. Stalin

We can treat the employers as the bad guys if we like, but nobody's forcing them to be here. We threw the protectionist guy out of office. We are open to the world's competitive forces, and much of the world asks, demands, and receives less than the American worker. We will lose, not because of the materialism of the captains of industry, but because of the materialism of the workforce.

[jh9]

The Labor Force Participation Rate accounts for people employed and unemployed over 16 years old. That does not include institutionalized individuals and those who are not seeking employment. You have to keep in mind BLS defines unemployed as someone seeking employment.

The employment population ratio is simple: How many people are working vs how many people are alive:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employmen...tion-ratio.htm

This shows roughly 10 million people not working that were.

Where do you get 10 million? That's not listed in the chart you provided.

Using total numbers and back-of-napkin math is closer to 7 million.

~324 million people in the US, ~60.7 million under age 15. Using your "employment-population ratio" instead of "workforce participation" shows a change in 2.6% from the pre-covid peak. 2.6% of the over 15 population (324m -60.7m = 263.3m) is 6.8m. (Using age 15 instead of 16 because that's what's provided. So there's a bunch of 15 year olds included there that are making that number somewhat larger than it would be if we were just using age 16+.)

As we continue to zero in on an accurate number of people missing from the workforce the larger questions remain unchanged. I don't doubt some people are probably still collecting the (greatly reduced) reduced state benefits but everyone saying that the government needs to pull the plug on unemployment... from here it looks like the plug has already been pulled. So far it doesn't appear to be having the effect some people think it should.

[BehindBlueI's]

I wouldn't know. I never lived in a private house. My parents never did. My wife never lived in one. And we bought our first home when I was 51.

So, I'll have to take your word for it. Most of the folks I knew growing up, who worked for a living, and whose families did as well, couldn't afford a house.

But, it must've been different in your neighborhood.

I would suggest that was very regional. You could have easily afforded a house in the most of the midwest with something like an entry level factory job. People in my grandparents and parents generations did it all the time.

I went to college with a guy who was a packer at a naval weapon facility. He was the guy who greased the ever loving shit out of a gun then put it in a crate. He told me the story of meeting his future wife's parents in New Hampshire. They questioned his ability to provide for a family on his $10/hr salary. They refused to believe he already owned his own home and car until they saw it in person. Different worlds.

[jh9]

"I have never met a man more fair, candid, and honest" -- HG Wells, regarding J. Stalin

Awesome. Stalinism. As a response to someone saying it's good that the people who are working are doing exactly what they should be doing and going where they're valued the most.

We can treat the employers as the bad guys if we like, but nobody's forcing them to be here.

Correct. Nobody is forcing them to be there, so they're going elsewhere. That's how capitalism works.

edit: above is referring to employees, not employers. I guess your take here is that all the jobs will just go away? Is this some new thread drift about protectionism? Hard to keep up.

[littlejerry]

Where do you get 10 million? That's not listed in the chart you provided.

Using total numbers and back-of-napkin math is closer to 7 million.

~324 million people in the US, ~60.7 million under age 15. Using your "employment-population ratio" instead of "workforce participation" shows a change in 2.6% from the pre-covid peak. 2.6% of the over 15 population (324m -60.7m = 263.3m) is 6.8m. (Using age 15 instead of 16 because that's what's provided. So there's a bunch of 15 year olds included there that are making that number somewhat larger than it would be if we were just using age 16+.)

As we continue to zero in on an accurate number of people missing from the workforce the larger questions remain unchanged. I don't doubt some people are probably still collecting the (greatly reduced) reduced state benefits but everyone saying that the government needs to pull the plug on unemployment... from here it looks like the plug has already been pulled. So far it doesn't appear to be having the effect some people think it should.

https://www.census.gov/popclock/
332.8 million people
2.7% drop in employment
~9 million

One stat we lack is an accurate estime of work-able population. Covid disproportionately killed off people out of the work force.

BLS tracks reasons for being unemployed, but again that's only for people actively seeking employment. There isnt good data that I'm aware of on families going from double to single incomes, taking time off for school, retiring early, or accepting a lower quality of life.

[jh9]

One stat we lack is an accurate estime of work-able population. Covid disproportionately killed off people out of the work force.

Right, but killing you isn't the only thing covid can do. It's just the last. I'm not aware of any (temporary or permanent) covid-related disability stats, though.

BLS tracks reasons for being unemployed, but again that's only for people actively seeking employment. There isnt good data that I'm aware of on families going from double to single incomes, taking time off for school, retiring early, or accepting a lower quality of life.

I'm not either. Individually I doubt any one of those causes represents a significant portion of that missing 2.6% but combined they may.

[Borderland]

I wouldn't know. I never lived in a private house. My parents never did. My wife never lived in one. And we bought our first home when I was 51.

So, I'll have to take your word for it. Most of the folks I knew growing up, who worked for a living, and whose families did as well, couldn't afford a house.

But, it must've been different in your neighborhood.

Have a good one. I think the one with the bug up his ass is not me.

My parents owned their house. I think they bought it in the early 50's. I'm pretty sure my first wife's parents bought their house in the 50's also.

My first wife and I bought our first house when I was 29 and she was 25. We both had pretty good jobs with college degrees at the time.

The big difference I see now is debt. People in their 20's and 30's are buried in debt. I never had any debt until I signed a bank loan for a new house when I was 29. I owned that house for 17 years. I've owned my present house for 26 years.

I see people who want what their parents have, or more, and aren't afraid to carry a massive debt load to get it. It's like playing poker with someone else's money. If you lose it you still own the debt. If you accumulate enough of it, like the gov't, sooner or later there has to be a reset. For an individual it's bankruptcy, for a country it's economic collapse. That's what we're seeing. Less personal wealth, tons more debt, and no body willing to loan you any more money because they know you can't repay the debt. Insolvency on a grand scale. The ship is on the rocks.