Worst case scenario

[octagon]

I have heard this phrase at least half a dozen times this past week or so and a lot in the past. This got me thinking of my own idea of what is a worst case scenario and how I attempt to prepare for it. Obviously everyone is different and has their own ideas of what constitutes a worst case scenario but it is interesting to hear what people think is theirs.

Mine has changed since retiring from law enforcement and leaving Metro Detroit for rural farm country. I look at worst case scenarios in 2 general categories possible and probable. It is possible (and has happened) to face a determined attacker equipped with a battle rifle, at long distance, behind cover and not drunk or on drugs. I think of the Texas tower shooting in 66 or the more recent Las Vegas Mandalay Bay shooting. Most anything I leave the house with would be pretty useless against a scenario like these. For something I may more likely face would be a couple young violent criminals that have used violence in the past who catch me off guard and have firearms but stay at some distance eliminating the possibility to use unarmed or contact weapons/techniques and have no hesitation to shoot or kill and want to leave no witnesses to their crime. It is fairly typical but with multiple armed attackers with firearms, who have the drop with guns out and keeping some distance means compliance isn't an option, unarmed or contact weapons are useless and any counter would start either from the drop before the attackers start shooting or likely after they start. Regardless it is what I consider a more probable worst case scenario.

I'm curious to hear what worst case scenarios others have contemplated.

[RevolverRob]

I've been on a university campus when an active shooter event occurred. It taught me a lot about that reality. And the reality is, find cover or at least concealment and shelter in place. When the police arrive, there will be a lot of moving parts. And you want no part in any of it.

For me active shooter scenarios rank down the list. Unless the shooter happens to be in my building on my floor, I'm not overly concerned. If they are, then hide until you can launch a close distance ambush.

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For me, having watched protesters burn shit and loot in my own neighborhood in the past. And having been caught up in a motorcycle flashmob - My worst case scenario is being caught in a crowd going against the tide of the crowd. In those situations, blend and fade is the best option, in my opinion. That and a serious amount of OC if on foot.

If in a vehicle (which is actually my absolute nightmare), extricate myself as carefully as possible. Which is contextually dependent, but would again involve trying to blend and just carefully move out.

If anyone ever watched the 1999 version of The Mummy - At one point the character Jonathon is going to be overrun by an angry mob shouting "Imhotep!". At the last second he turns and starts walking and saying, "Imhotep" to blend in and escape. That's basically my plan.

[CHNEAL]

I make my living in a public, high value, NPE, soft target. I have no plans to try and defend it. My normal plan is find the nearest door and walk away. I will only engage if shooter is between me and a door. My job is to get home to my family.

My position allows me to be and puts me in every corner, public and back of house, of the facility regularly and there isn’t a path to freedom I don’t have access to or the knowledge to exploit so in that I am fortunate/ lucky.

My worst case is my wife and or daughter happens to be on-site the day it happens. My whole plan becomes a crap sammich and my purpose changes. My family and I run these sceneries regularly and even drill them a several times a year after and during hours. What a world we live in…

[breakingtime91]

I look at in a readiness kind of way. Everyday and heightened risk.

Everyday: around town or to relatives house the town over I carry my 229, spare mag, flash light, and fix blade. This should handle my low population area and most common crimes.

Near by larger cities: I commonly put my mk18 pistol and a chest rig into a discreet bag and have a lock type set up in my truck. This is solely for the purpose of getting caught in and then getting out of a riot or some other unforeseeable high risk situation. I don't want my family or I to be stuck with only 34 rounds of 9mm.

[Welder]

I often wake shivering with fear from nightmares of tomatoes being put on my cheeseburger and me actually biting into one.

I think the vast majority of Americans' worst case scenario happened today when FB went down.

[Totem Polar]

If anyone ever watched the 1999 version of The Mummy - At one point the character Jonathon is going to be overrun by an angry mob shouting "Imhotep!". At the last second he turns and starts walking and saying, "Imhotep" to blend in and escape. That's basically my plan.

That’s a great scene.

Incidentally, that Brendan Fraser dude from the mummy went to school in Seattle around the same time I did. Dated an old friend of mine.

There are so many worst case scenarios to be imagined: major health issues; catastrophic financial issues; relationship issues; a mob or active shooter is pretty far down the list.

Of course, I’ve also been through a campus lockdown over a reported active shooter (false alarm), so I get that anything can happen, and I always have an exit plan in mind.

[Paul D]

Worst case scenario for me: financial disaster for my family if I am dead or disabled. Most of my self-defense budget is spent on lawyers and insurance companies. I have great own-occupation disability and term life insurance policies. We have a pretty robust family trust and absolutely reliable/loyal family members who can oversee it. If I or my wife or both die, our kids will be well taken care of and will grow up to avenge us!

[Cookie Monster]

My kids or my wife getting hurt or killed. Me getting hit by a snag on a wildland fire and not being able to provide as worker’s comp tells me to go fuck myself.

I don’t fear my house burning down or a fight. I got a lot planned out. I probably need to build some more relationships so there is more community to support my family or myself in hard times.

[CSW]

I often wake shivering with fear from nightmares of tomatoes being put on my cheeseburger and me actually biting into one.. .

Mayonnaise, definitely mayonnaise. A terrible demise for a good burger.

Reading these posts, I can't say that I have a worst case, short of a structure fire in my home.
We're so far removed from the location of the fire department, and their response time is an abomination.

Other than that, mayonnaise is definitely the worst thing, ever.

[P30]

Definition:
risk = probability * damage

What should we prepare for?
I suggest: For events with high risk.
It's not only the damage we have if the event occurs. It's also the event's probability.

Time is also a criterion, i.e. are we talking short-term or long-term. Example: Mayonnaise is a soft-killer. Each day it does only little damage. But over the years, if too much is eaten, it kills.

Also the cost or effort to reduce the risk is a criterion. The Pareto principle comes to mind (80/20 rule).