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Thread: Selection Bias in Drill Performance

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeler View Post
    By your criteria, wouldn't a USPSA GM be the very definition of selection bias? Accusing one shooting discipline of selection bias whilst ignoring the extremely narrow bias of your own hobby is rather disingenuous wouldn't you think?
    Can you explain that?

    I’m not saying that a USPSA GM is representative of the population.

    They’re probably better than 99.9% of firearm owners out there.

    I’m saying that “only a few people have cleaned the Rogers” is self selected because most people who already shoot at that level won’t spend days and dollars to take an intro course.

    If you could shoot it outside of the school I totally would do it.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by JCN View Post
    So few perfect scores because the people who can shoot perfect scores on demand don’t go to those classes. I’d wager there are probably at least 30 plus people in the USA who could do it easily.
    There's definitely a selection bias as to who goes to what venues and activities. That said... Manny Bragg was a super squad level dude who came to Rogers right after winning a major match. It took him 4 attempts to clean it and he couldn't repeat on remaining attempts even after the pressure was off. I think TGO couldn't clean it.
    My opinion is that top USPSA guys in the country will clean it if given enough attempts, and everyone else will have to put some extra train-up work to have a chance to do that.

    Back to selection bias discussion.
    Doesn't read posts longer than two paragraphs.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by YVK View Post
    There's definitely a selection bias as to who goes to what venues and activities. That said... Manny Bragg was a super squad level dude who came to Rogers right after winning a major match. It took him 4 attempts to clean it and he couldn't repeat on remaining attempts even after the pressure was off. I think TGO couldn't clean it.
    My opinion is that top USPSA guys in the country will clean it if given enough attempts, and everyone else will have to put some extra train-up work to have a chance to do that.

    Back to selection bias discussion.
    Yes. That was all I was saying. If you gave them a small plastic trophy for cleaning it and gave them a little train up time if they were weak hand deficient, there are a bunch of people capable of cleaning the Rogers. It’s not “easy” but the barrier of attaching a class to it is going to weed out a bunch of people from trying it.

  4. #14
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    Frozen in time

    There’s also historical context frozen in time.

    The 4 minute mile for running was thought to be the human limit until 1954.

    And since that time over 1400 people have done it.

    Training and technology improves.

    A quick look through Rogers Facebook shows more people shooting the “possible” in the last few years.

    Including a couple siblings with one cleaning it.

    The fifteen year old girl shot a 119.

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    Time marches on and even in the last 5 years the standard of shooting has increased across the shooting sports. What was the 4 minute mile from before… isn’t anymore.

    I did also see a couple comments that more and more students at the tops of classes are shooting Optics these days and that’s likely a change from even five years ago.

    I’m sure it hurts our collective man egos when teenage boys and girls outshoot us, but that’s progress. Each generation improves upon the last in sporting excellence.

    Ironically I also stumbled across a 2012 thread by GJM that talks about how RDS doesn’t offer more than iron sights plus practice… time marches on and our collective wisdom improves because of it. Note that DocGKR was on the forefront of experience and alluded to what his experiences were that eventually became our current reality.

    https://pistol-forum.com/archive/index.php/t-3563.html

    It’s really a time capsule of the pre-RDS era and a fascinating read in today’s context of “best practice.”

    Really fascinating read.
    Last edited by JCN; 08-21-2021 at 03:29 AM.

  5. #15
    Site Supporter Hambo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCN View Post
    The Casino drill ceases to achieve the intended goal when people practice it (like these guys who have been to the class over and over again). Or the Rogers range where people memorize sequences like a steel challenge stage. If you watch [Rodgers] video demonstration, you can see that he goes to the next target before the next target appears. It ceases to be a test of judgment and reaction in the same way as it would be to someone who doesn’t know the COF and goes up for the first time.
    The answer is one run through a drill, shot cold with no walk through. All you have to do is keep the drill secret from the entire shooting community as you go from range to range testing rookies to GMs. Simple, eh?
    "Gunfighting is a thinking man's game. So we might want to bring thinking back into it."-MDFA

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hambo View Post
    The answer is one run through a drill, shot cold with no walk through. All you have to do is keep the drill secret from the entire shooting community as you go from range to range testing rookies to GMs. Simple, eh?
    Or just call a spade a spade and let the games game.

    Before the thread, I didn’t realize people practiced for Rogers Test for months.

    One guy had the same range for training at his local training facility and was able to do 124s and 125s during his “Test.”

    All the tests can be studied for when the test is standardized. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s a thing.

    Same criticisms and caveats apply here.

    The guy who practices for Casino Drill or Rogers Test and drills over and over again on the COF so when he goes to the “official” run(s) he has the best chance of doing well.

    Versus

    The guy who finds out what the USPSA classifier is (or gets to pick it because of their position in a club) and drills over and over again in practice so that at the “official” run(s) he has the best chance of making GM.

    The first scenario deserves praise and the second scenario deserves scorn right? Right?

    Because the first scenario cleaning the Rogers in six tries with dedicated preparation sometimes including the same setup on your home range is still difficult while scoring GM scores in 1-2 tries at a match is a piece of cake that any B level shooter can do it!

    Or maybe they’re exactly the same thing and practice is practice, improvement is improvement.

  7. #17
    Deadeye Dick Clusterfrack's Avatar
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    I've trained with Ben Stoeger and Gabe White. I have tremendous admiration for them both--and for their hard work and the skill that has resulted from it. The limits of human performance continue to be pushed.

    I can't think of anything else to write about this topic. I have a match to go to.
    "You can never have too many knives." --Joe Ambercrombie
    Shabbat shalom, motherf***ers! --Mordechai Jefferson Carver

  8. #18
    Site Supporter Hambo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCN View Post

    Before the thread, I didn’t realize people practiced for Rogers Test for months.
    We learn something every day. Before this thread I didn't realize there was a TLG pistol-training page on Rogers Test stages and target order.
    "Gunfighting is a thinking man's game. So we might want to bring thinking back into it."-MDFA

  9. #19
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    I think something to keep in mind is Gabe also did it from concealment and with iron sights.

    No dog in this fight, but I think that’s still a pretty lofty feat to anyone on earth.
    God Bless,

    Brandon

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Controlledpairs2 View Post
    Yikes. He missed time AND dropped a shot when trying to go sub-5 seconds.

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