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Thread: Selection Bias in Drill Performance

  1. #1
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    Selection Bias in Drill Performance

    I think we are also finding that there is quite a selection bias with some of the “tactical” drills given the population that attends instruction similar to Rogers range scores, Jedi Black Belt standards, Gabe White standards, etc.

    While 10.3 seconds is very respectable, 9.0 seconds is very doable at a GM level. Unofficially of course.

    I would think someone like Stoeger could do it in 8.0.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JCS View Post
    If someone shoots it on video and posts it can they claim the title of fastest CASINO drill? Or is this something that has to be shot in someone’s class?
    I think it has to be official in a class because of the required “pressure” element.

    That being said, like Stoeger’s 3.2 second FAST… it’s something he could do all day every day.



    I think it’s appropriate that should be done within a class context to avoid gaming and cheating.

    But it’s probably a good thing to mention the selection bias and shooting context of the classes.

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    Clarification

    This thread was split off the Casino drill one for context.

    A comment I made to a friend:

    The Casino drill ceases to achieve the intended goal when people practice it (like these guys who have been to the class over and over again). Or the Rogers range where people memorize sequences like a steel challenge stage. If you watch [Rodgers] video demonstration, you can see that he goes to the next target before the next target appears. It ceases to be a test of judgment and reaction in the same way as it would be to someone who doesn’t know the COF and goes up for the first time.

    So call a spade a spade. No doubt that if you took a decent 12 year old Steel Challenge shooter and showed them the COF for a Rogers range and let them digest it, they could clean it. But they don’t go to those classes.

    Most records on technical drills for people that go to tactical classes have a heavy selection bias where the skills of the students (and instructors) top out around USPSA A or M with the exception of some rare shooting only courses.

    That’s cool and all, but there should be some understanding on where that actually lies on the shooting skill spectrum.

    No doubt many local golf course records are set by the local talent and not the best in the nation. Same sort of thing.

    As clarification, I’m not saying that level of skill is necessary for self defense.
    Last edited by JCN; 08-20-2021 at 08:33 PM.

  4. #4
    The hard part of the Rogers School test has nothing to due with memorizing the target sequences, and by mid week every Rogers participant knows the target sequences. The hard part is the strong and support hand shooting.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GJM View Post
    The hard part of the Rogers School test has nothing to due with memorizing the target sequences, and by mid week every Rogers participant knows the target sequences. The hard part is the strong and support hand shooting.
    There are probably 20 local guys who are better shooters than me. I have a hard time believing any of them would have issues with strong and weak stages from what I’ve seen of them shooting.

    AFAIK none of them have been to a Rogers school.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by GJM View Post
    The hard part of the Rogers School test has nothing to due with memorizing the target sequences, and by mid week every Rogers participant knows the target sequences. The hard part is the strong and support hand shooting.
    While I’ve never been to Rogers School, even my dumb ass can agree that there’s a difference between knowing a target sequence and executing the fundamentals consistently enough to clean it. Pretty sure there’s a good reason there’s so few perfect scores shot in the Rogers Test.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jared View Post
    While I’ve never been to Rogers School, even my dumb ass can agree that there’s a difference between knowing a target sequence and executing the fundamentals consistently enough to clean it. Pretty sure there’s a good reason there’s so few perfect scores shot in the Rogers Test.
    And that’s my point. So few perfect scores because the people who can shoot perfect scores on demand don’t go to those classes. I’d wager there are probably at least 30 plus people in the USA who could do it easily.



    8” plates at 7-10 yards with an 18 yard one?

    That is like M level.

  8. #8
    As someone that has witnessed two perfect Rogers tests shot, that has shot Advanced with iron sights and optics, with strikers and DA/SA pistols, and been shooting USPSA for a while, I fully understand why so few perfect Rogers tests have been shot, including by great USPSA shooters like Rob Leatham.

    The skill set to shoot a perfect Rogers test is very different from the skill set needed to shoot an average of 95 percent on six classifiers, when everything below 80 percent doesn't count. Also, the one hand shooting required to shoot 100 percent on a USPSA classifier is orders of magnitude easier than shooting stage eight clean at Rogers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GJM View Post
    As someone that has witnessed two perfect Rogers tests shot, that has shot Advanced with iron sights and optics, with strikers and DA/SA pistols, and been shooting USPSA for a while, I fully understand why so few perfect Rogers tests have been shot, including by great USPSA shooters like Rob Leatham.

    The skill set to shoot a perfect Rogers test is very different from the skill set needed to shoot an average of 95 percent on six classifiers, when everything below 80 percent doesn't count. Also, the one hand shooting required to shoot 100 percent on a USPSA classifier is orders of magnitude easier than shooting stage eight clean at Rogers.
    I’ll take your word for it. I do a lot a lot of weak hand practice and it really does not look difficult.

    I’ll set something up and take some video at those distances.



    Reduced size index cards would scale out to 8” plates at 15 yards.

    If instead of paying $800 to do a class, if you offered to pay people $500 dollars if they could clean it…

    How many clean shooters do you think there would be?

    That is the definition of selection bias.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JCN View Post
    I’ll take your word for it. I do a lot a lot of weak hand practice and it really does not look difficult.

    I’ll set something up and take some video at those distances.



    Reduced size index cards would scale out to 8” plates at 15 yards.

    If instead of paying $800 to do a class, if you offered to pay people $500 dollars if they could clean it…

    How many clean shooters do you think there would be?

    That is the definition of selection bias.
    By your criteria, wouldn't a USPSA GM be the very definition of selection bias? Accusing one shooting discipline of selection bias whilst ignoring the extremely narrow bias of your own hobby is rather disingenuous wouldn't you think?
    Men freely believe that which they desire.
    Julius Caesar

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