I strongly lean towards #2 myself, but the idea that we would be able to go "right back to normal " given the vast numbers of unvaccinated on the planet, new variants, etc. was far overblown. But the more vaccinated by %, the closer we are to something like the old normal, no doubt.
I have some thoughts on not pushing narratives of crises that pretend to more certainty of the future than is feasible, and on moving away from PR style manipulation to bloodless data presentation, but they belong in the covid politics thread, or perhaps a new thread in our politics section.