COVID-19 vaccines: medical concerns and recommendations

[Patrick Taylor]

The people giving out numbers on covid are some of the same ones that gave vote counts.

No idea which ones are truthful and which are pushing a plan but taking experimental gene therapy because of numbers on CNN is not in my plan.

[Bio]

Yeah, and mRNA vaccines can be developed and produced faster than then the alternatives. But given the problems with vaccine acceptance, it's hard for me seeing boosters doing enough soon enough to affect the strain that evades the current vaccines as far as transmission goes.

Would it be prudent to start boosting against Delta anyway, on the assumption that the strain that does require a booster for sure will be more similar to Delta than the original strain?

I'm guessing the answer to that question is "no," since I pulled that reasoning out of my posterior.

I think the answer is "no" as well, it's a lot of effort to make a vaccine in large scale when it isn't really needed. I bet there's a ton of research that is already ongoing to identify alternative vaccine targets that is in-part based on the Delta variant, however.

[Bio]

The people giving out numbers on covid are some of the same ones that gave vote counts.

No idea which ones are truthful and which are pushing a plan but taking experimental gene therapy because of numbers on CNN is not in my plan.

Just FYI, mRNA vaccines don't change your genes. I'm not telling you want to do, just thought you might want to know.

[Sanch]

So using this data we have a .003% of vaccinated people being hospitalized/dying from COVID. I realize this will change as time goes on and I also realize that it doesn't account for the infections of people who never knew they were infected, but the vaccines look pretty damned effective.

Meaningless statistic in its own.

What if 0.003% of all total unvaccinated people were also being hospitalized/die from covid? Then the vaccine would be doing nothing and covid just would be overblown.

We need to know what percentage of the unvaccinated public are being hospitalized or die of covid to make a comparison.

We also need to know if people dying of non-covid related reasons are still being tested for covid, and having that on their listed cause of death. And perhaps, if people vaccinated are less likely to get covid tested when dying of something else.

Example. Die of motorcycle crash. If unvaccinated, they test for covid, and say died if covid. Same motorcycle crash, but vaccinated, so don’t check for covid, and thus did not die of covid. I doubt this is a huge factor but it needs to be analyzed for.

We’d also need to look at how many are dying or being hospitalized from the vaccine itself. Suppose 0.003% of people getting the vaccine die or are hospitalized from the vaccine. That needs to be factored in.

Example. 0.005% of people unvaccinated are dying or hospitalized from covid compared to 0.003% of total vaccinated population. But, vaccinations result in 0.004% of vaccine takers getting hospitalized or dying. Then the comparison is 0.005% to 0.007% in favor of not being vaccinated. Since the unvaccinated still have a 0.003% chance of covid issue but are introducing a new 0.004% chance of serious vaccine issue.

Based on loose numbers I’ve seen I strongly suspect when broken down by age, if you’re under 20 years old, you’re far better off not getting vaccinated. Since the vaccine complication rate is higher than unvaccinated covid problem rate. Both rates are very very small but as an individual, you are more likely to be hospitalized or die if you got vaccinated, by a small margin.

And if you’re over 70 years old, the vaccination complication rate stays the same but covid problem rate is exponentially higher, so you are better off getting the vaccine.

Need to stratify data by age and risk factor groups. Unless it’s a public policy decision where we force everyone to get the vaccine, even if it’s at their personal detriment because it’s for the good of society at large. And then I’d say turn your guns in, too, because while it makes you individually less safe, it makes the public more safe if you were disarmed.

[HeavyDuty]

I think the answer is "no" as well, it's a lot of effort to make a vaccine in large scale when it isn't really needed. I bet there's a ton of research that is already ongoing to identify alternative vaccine targets that is in-part based on the Delta variant, however.

A casual acquaintance is a biochemist for one of the huge pharma companies, and usually works on cancer gene therapy research. But with covid it was all hands on deck, so she is (or was) working outside her usual area to support the company’s efforts.

She said something about how mRNA vaccine development was a little like having a sourdough starter. They can start from much further in the process than they could with traditional vaccines, which saves a lot of time. But the actual “payload” (for the lack of a better term) is developed as needed.

I may have totally misunderstood her, though.

[Bio]

A casual acquaintance is a biochemist for one of the huge pharma companies, and usually works on cancer gene therapy research. But with covid it was all hands on deck, so she is (or was) working outside her usual area to support the company’s efforts.

She said something about how mRNA vaccine development was a little like having a sourdough starter. They can start from much further in the process than they could with traditional vaccines, which saves a lot of time. But the actual “payload” (for the lack of a better term) is developed as needed.

I may have totally misunderstood her, though.

That concurs with my understanding of mRNA vaccines as well, from the viewpoint of someone who is acquainted with the science, does not work with them directly.

[Baldanders]

Meaningless statistic in its own.

What if 0.003% of all total unvaccinated people were also being hospitalized/die from covid? Then the vaccine would be doing nothing and covid just would be overblown.

We need to know what percentage of the unvaccinated public are being hospitalized or die of covid to make a comparison.

We also need to know if people dying of non-covid related reasons are still being tested for covid, and having that on their listed cause of death. And perhaps, if people vaccinated are less likely to get covid tested when dying of something else.

Example. Die of motorcycle crash. If unvaccinated, they test for covid, and say died if covid. Same motorcycle crash, but vaccinated, so don’t check for covid, and thus did not die of covid. I doubt this is a huge factor but it needs to be analyzed for.

We’d also need to look at how many are dying or being hospitalized from the vaccine itself. Suppose 0.003% of people getting the vaccine die or are hospitalized from the vaccine. That needs to be factored in.

Example. 0.005% of people unvaccinated are dying or hospitalized from covid compared to 0.003% of total vaccinated population. But, vaccinations result in 0.004% of vaccine takers getting hospitalized or dying. Then the comparison is 0.005% to 0.007% in favor of not being vaccinated. Since the unvaccinated still have a 0.003% chance of covid issue but are introducing a new 0.004% chance of serious vaccine issue.

Based on loose numbers I’ve seen I strongly suspect when broken down by age, if you’re under 20 years old, you’re far better off not getting vaccinated. Since the vaccine complication rate is higher than unvaccinated covid problem rate. Both rates are very very small but as an individual, you are more likely to be hospitalized or die if you got vaccinated, by a small margin.

And if you’re over 70 years old, the vaccination complication rate stays the same but covid problem rate is exponentially higher, so you are better off getting the vaccine.

Need to stratify data by age and risk factor groups. Unless it’s a public policy decision where we force everyone to get the vaccine, even if it’s at their personal detriment because it’s for the good of society at large. And then I’d say turn your guns in, too, because while it makes you individually less safe, it makes the public more safe if you were disarmed.

Posting a bunch of "must have" information which we must have to say which folks should be vaccinated, then making pretty definitive statements about it being a bad gamble for young folks to get vaccinated with no reference to any numbers whatsoever is ironic.

I'd link the article, but I'm at work on my phone--the biggest ivermectin "study" that formed the backbone of all the meta analysis saying it did anything got retracted. I doubt it will stop the quacks from promoting it.

[Yung]

Elgazzar study retraction
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-100956/v4

Removed from ivmmeta on 7/15
https://ivmmeta.com/#revisions

Guardian article
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...hical-concerns

[Joe in PNG]

Here in PNG, our local hospital vaccination clinic is out of Astra-Zed, and we're hoping they get some more, soon, as there's a few of us that need shot #2.

Meanwhile, the nation is rolling out the Chinese vaccine to great fanfare. Considering the usual ethics of the PRC, I suspect that the two are related, because the AZ is free, but the Sinopham is part & parcel of the Belt & Road Debt Trap Loanshark Scheme.

[Baldanders]

Here in PNG, our local hospital vaccination clinic is out of Astra-Zed, and we're hoping they get some more, soon, as there's a few of us that need shot #2.

Meanwhile, the nation is rolling out the Chinese vaccine to great fanfare. Considering the usual ethics of the PRC, I suspect that the two are related, because the AZ is free, but the Sinopham is part & parcel of the Belt & Road Debt Trap Loanshark Scheme.

Hope some AZ makes it's way to you soon, buddy.

Is there any perception that the Sinopharm is inferior to AZ among the general populace in PNG, like Brazil?