Our pediatrician's office will have the vaccine available on Tuesday. My girls, 5 and 9, are getting vaccinated on Tuesday. While overall community transmission is lower here than a month or two ago, my older daughter's school has seen an increase in cases lately. I'll feel much better once my girls have been vaccinated, more so ten days after their boosts.
Thought exercise:
Herd immunity = ( 1 / vaccine infection efficacy ) × ( 1 - 1 / Ro )
The CDC currently estimates overall vaccine efficacy as 66% (from their HEROES healthcare worker database)
The CDC initially estimated Delta's Ro between 5 and 9.5, but more recently said between 6-7
Best case scenario
Herd Immunity = ( 1 / 0.66 ) × ( 1 - 1/5 )
Herd Immunity = 121%
Obviously you can't vaccinate over 100% of the population, so herd immunity does not seem possible nationwide with current vaccines and current behavior. We could lower Ro with masks and lockdowns, but I don't see it happening even if you did get close to 100% vaccinated.
With herd immunity is out of the picture, we're looking at an endemic instead. If this is going to be the case, why should I care whether my neighbor gets vaccinated?
Stop the spread through herd immunity- reduce the chances of immunocompromised becoming infected
- Flatten the curve to prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed
- Reduce healthcare spending on vaccine preventable diseases
- ???
And if everyone is going to get covid19 eventually anyway, you can strike out #2 as well, no?
I’d say unvaccinated -> greater chance of hospitalization -> avoidable use of healthcare resources, which drives up costs and reduces availability for everyone.Originally Posted by 0ddl0t
By the numbers, it’s likely that I will get infected at some point. I’m vaccinated and boosted in the hope of minimizing the effects. I like having my lungs work the way they do now. Plus, I supposedly have less risk of spreading it if I do become a carrier, and I have high-risk family members.
Good article showing long term study on vaxxed versus unvaxxed breakthrough cases. The difference is dramatic.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ugh-cases.html
Would anyone mind providing a synopsis for those of us paywall blocked?
Appreciate that, thank you!
It would be cool if they could also provide a similar graph with unvaccinated but previous known infection and a vaccinated with previous known infection. Thats probably too much hair splitting, but I'm interested in seeing what we know at this point about the protection provided from previous infections.
On a side note, I'd love to know what's happening here in my Arizona. We have new daily case rate that's rivaling our very first covid surge. By now damn near everyone should have either vaccine or previous infection on board.
https://www.azdhs.gov/covid19/data/index.php
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/arizona/
How are you doing today? Like you I had my Moderna #2 in March. Still mulling over on when to get #3.
Back to normal. Slept fine last night, felt fine this morning. Slight soreness at injection spot if I touch it but I had to touch it just now to confirm that.
ETA: The purpose of the Second Amendment is hunting. Joe Biden handled the withdrawal from Afghanistan as well as it could be handled and is bringing America back. Randi Weingarten may not be perfect, but the children are always her #1 priority. We desperately need to Build Back Better and need to rid ourselves of the Republicans standing in our way. AOC is not only hot but also smart as hell. Nobody needs a clip that holds more than 10 rounds.
Last edited by Kanye Wyoming; 11-07-2021 at 02:42 PM.
Reply With Quote