We subscribe to the Wall Street Journal print edition, mostly for material for our wood stove during the winter. Delivery is somewhat haphazard in our rural environment, one time we got the NYT Weekend Edition for some reason. It was a window into an alternate universe.Originally Posted by cheby
Dude, if it were not for your long and stellar track record of posting here, I’d hate you too.
But, yeah, that COVID sitrep was a breath of fresh air. Honestly, this whole idea of “2021 has GOT to be better than fucking 2020” is looking a bit touch and go, considering that it’s already into mid-september.
”But in the end all of these ideas just manufacture new criminals when the problem isn't a lack of criminals.” -JRB
"Don't worry Clyde, there's no way 1941 can be worse than 1940. I can't wait for this year to be over."Dude, if it were not for your long and stellar track record of posting here, I’d hate you too.
But, yeah, that COVID sitrep was a breath of fresh air. Honestly, this whole idea of “2021 has GOT to be better than fucking 2020” is looking a bit touch and go, considering that it’s already into mid-september.
-Somebody
Gaming will get you killed in the streets. Dueling will get you killed in the fields.
-Alexander Hamilton
Right? No shit…
”But in the end all of these ideas just manufacture new criminals when the problem isn't a lack of criminals.” -JRB
His professional experience in project management type stuff looks reasonably impressive to me. However, his publication list, based on his CV, is really thin for a person his age. I haven't looked elsewhere, so maybe I'm missing some things. I don't know what his scientific achievements were in the private sector. It's typical for people in industry to publish less than academics, so maybe I'm be too harsh. To me, his CV makes him look like more of an administrator than a scientist.
Regarding the bit about the vaccine overwhelming the body's natural process, I think that's total garbage. We'll never know, but I don't think that partial vaccination is what's driving the mutations. I don't know how many trillions of trillions of trillions of times the virus has replicated since it emerged, but it's had ample opportunity to test variations regardless of vaccination.
I think you gave a good summary in your point #1. Regarding point #2, the vaccine relevant changes in the mutant virus are in the spike protein. Spike is the major immunogenic target following infection, so the vaccines give the immune system a nice preview of this protein. The spike protein is essential to the virus life cycle. Most of my data is on the antibody response to the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. Changing a couple of amino acids in the RBD results in a significant drop in antibody recognition. I can't remember the mutations in delta off the top of my head, but there's going to be a big drop on a linear scale. However, antibody responses occur on a log scale. Simultaneous with the changes in the spike protein are changes in other proteins. These can enhance the ability of the virus to replicatie in the body. When you combine the changes that make the immune system marginally less able to recognize the virus and enhance other functions of the virus, you get a successful variant.
Yes, and again, the virus has had trillions upon trillions of chances to sample mutations.
I skimmed that article earlier in the week. It was awful. My little cohort at work is about 200 people. Between March and July/August, we had four known breakthrough infections. Outside of that cohort, made up of faculty and staff, I know of three other faculty plus a spouse who have had breakthrough infections. That gives me a total of eight of breakthrough infections of which I have first hand knowledge via work. The level of community transmission is the key factor. If you have tons of community transmission, like here, you'll have more breakthrough cases. The article touched on this, but they should have emphasized it. Additionally, the time since vaccination is also a major factor. Most the the breakthrough cases that I know about occurred in July/August. I am not an epidemiologist, and, sadly, I've never taken statistics. However, since I don't know 40,000 people, I'd say the breakthrough rate is closer to 1 in 50 than 1 in 5,000. Whatever the rate is, I guarantee that a month from now it'll be higher than what it is today.I’ll just leave this snippet from a Sept 7 NYT article here, to take for what it’s worth.
In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.
How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.
Or maybe one in 10,000
The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.
The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)
Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.…
[snip]
…In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.
In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That risk is so close to zero that the human mind can’t easily process it. My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.
The bottom line
Delta really has changed the course of the pandemic. It is far more contagious than earlier versions of the virus and calls for precautions that were not necessary a couple of months ago, like wearing masks in some indoor situations.
But even with Delta, the overall risks for the vaccinated remain extremely small. As Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, wrote on Friday, “The messaging over the last month in the U.S. has basically served to terrify the vaccinated and make unvaccinated eligible adults doubt the effectiveness of the vaccines.” Neither of those views is warranted.
Y’all are welcome.
Irrelevant thread drift follows. My oldest daughter did a legal internship in Palmer for the Matanuska Susitna Borough. She lived in Wasala for two months. I helped drive up and back. Good times!
Carry on
Just a dog chauffeur that used to hold the dumb end of the leash.
Even since I was a kid, I've from time to time had slight tinnitis. At the same time, I have felt I had generally good hearing. Around a year ago, I noticed the ringing getting worse. It trended moderately consistently up and down through the day, but at its worst was enough to be annoying (and worrying). I went and got checked out. The tech in the doctor's office, after administering the tests, said my hearing was fine/normal, actually better than hers. What they told me agrees with the above; there are lots of things that can cause ringing and it isn't necessarily a sign of hearing damage.
1 in 5000 per day is about the same as 1 in 50 per 100 days, which is fairly close to your observation. Given sample size, I'd say it's in agreement. (Running the analysis for a longer period of time, you'd need to account for the already-infected people by adjusting the denominator, at least, but I think "about" is close enough when you're still only at 2 percent infected.)
It strikes me that the "per day" metric is arguably a case of "liars figure." People want to know, "What are my chances?" Not, "What are my chances today?" But the manipulation machine tells us numbers that are designed to get past most peoples' abilities to accurately process them.
One thing I'm interested to know is how many unvaccinated people have had the disease and have naturally-gotten immunity? I've heard numbers like "25 percent unvaccinated" and about "200 million" vaccinated, which are far enough apart to suggest nobody actually knows (or maybe just cares) what the true numbers are. Seems like we should have a better handle on it than swinging 50 million between the figures that are used. The discussion of people who haven't gotten a needle in their arm yet seems to be framed with an assumption that they all have zero immunity, but there has to be a sizeable chunk of them at this point who have gotten sick and recovered.
Like many, I'm getting frustrated with the resulting mis/information soup coming from all directions. Most "retail" sources on all sides seem to be pushing a political agenda, rather than digging to get at the truth and support making the best decisions.
I'm fully vaccinated, but I still wear a mask when I go out in the general public. Just like I wear All The Gear, All The Time when I get on a motorcycle. I am protected as well as I can be given the circumstances of riding a motorcycle, but I still don't want to crash, because nothing good happens when you crash. Sure, you can avoid the risks of riding a motorcycle by not riding a motorcycle, but you also lose out on the benefits.
Last edited by OlongJohnson; 09-11-2021 at 09:49 AM.
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Not another dime.
About the only thing one can do is get vaccinated and wear a mask in public. Because so many people won't do either one or both of those things voluntarily, I think we're in for a very trying period like the great depression or WW2 that severely effected our economy and our way of life. My mom and dad lived through both of those periods, both being born in TX around 1920. It's almost unbelievable the stories of hardship they related to me as teenagers growing up in TX. My dad was in the 1st infantry division in N. Africa and Europe.
Covid has now killed more people living in the US in 18 months than US military casualties in 42 months during WW2. 659K vs 407K. To break that down by year covid is killing about 0.3% of the population where the war killed about 0.09% of the population annually. Both are less than one percent but the covid number is larger by about 3X.
We might as well be another global war.
In the P-F basket of deplorables.
Unvaccinated people are 11 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those who are fully vaccinated, new research has found, bolstering evidence that the inoculations continue to provide powerful protection, even against the delta variant.
The latest studies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released on Friday also found that vaccinated people were nearly five times less likely to get infected and 10 times less likely to get so sick they ended up in the hospital.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7037e1_w
The CDC "looked at COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in 13 states and offers further evidence of the power of vaccination," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, said at a White House COVID-19 briefing on Friday.
However, the studies — which analyzed data from 600,000 Americans between April 4 and July 17 — suggest that the effectiveness of the vaccines may have dropped as the delta variant became dominant. One explanation could be waning immunity. A second is that the variant is better at evading the immune system. It also could be some combination of the two factors.
Another study examining data from nine states from June through August indicated that the Moderna vaccine may be the most effective of the three available in the United States.
The research found that across all ages, vaccine effectiveness was "significantly higher" among Moderna vaccine recipients — at 95% — than among Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson vaccine recipients, with vaccine effectiveness of 80% and 60%, respectively.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7037e2_w
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/10360...es-more-likely
The vaccine continues to make covid an ‘other people’s problem’ for me. I might get sick, but not badly. My kid might get sick, but not badly (not reading about a lot of 10yo on vents). I’ll keep getting boosted but I now refuse to wear a mask except where professionally mandated. Not my problem, not going to inconvenience myself. Mad as hell that my kid has to wear a mask at school.
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