Ford F-150 Lightning

[farscott]

For you guys buying or looking at plug-in vehicles, are you able to set up a dedicated charging space inside a garage or other "secure" area? Or are you okay with taking your chances letting it charge outside, and not only being out a cable when you wake up but also have a partially charged vehicle that can't get you to work?

We couldn't keep shoreline cables in stock at my previous career in EMS. High theft item. High crime area, but when these EVs get more popular I can easily see people driving around looking for EV cables to snatch.

For this reason alone, I see these vehicles remaining a novelty for many Americans that live without a garage.

Our charging station will be in our garage with a separate electrical breaker box providing service for both theft concerns and weather issues. I am aware of one local case where a homeowner found a strange vehicle using the charger outside his home. I rather not have any issues with the charging station caused by exposure to UV and rain if I can easily abate them. I am debating building a non-attached garage for the EV as it gives me an excuse to have a place to store things I rather not have in the attached garage (lawn equipment) as well as limiting concerns about EV fires.

Our plan for this vehicle is local (<= 75 miles one way) trips only with all charging done at home. We will still have a traditional ICE vehicle with 500 miles of range for all non-local travel.

[TGS]

Our charging station will be in our garage with a separate electrical breaker box providing service for both theft concerns and weather issues. I am aware of one local case where a homeowner found a strange vehicle using the charger outside his home. I rather not have any issues with the charging station caused by exposure to UV and rain if I can easily abate them. I am debating building a non-attached garage for the EV as it gives me an excuse to have a place to store things I rather not have in the attached garage (lawn equipment) as well as limiting concerns about EV fires.

Our plan for this vehicle is local (<= 75 miles one way) trips only with all charging done at home. We will still have a traditional ICE vehicle with 500 miles of range for all non-local travel.

Cool. Given that you're an automotive engineer, it speaks volumes to me that you're looking to build a separate structure to charge your EV. Sorry if I missed it, but which one did you get again? The Mach-E?

Deep down, I know this whole EV push is actually a plot by the IAFF to keep their jobs relevant.

Sure, but it destroys the cable so to what benefit? Anti-eco terrorism?

uhhhhh....

....for the copper, to resell it on the scrap market. The same reason people were stealing our shore lines before EVs were a thing. Shore line = charging cable for emergency vehicles with lots of parasitic drain and/or 24/7 climate control to keep drugs at temp.

[farscott]

Cool. Given that you're an automotive engineer, it speaks volumes to me that you're looking to build a separate structure to charge your EV. Sorry if I missed it, but which one did you get again? The Mach-E?

Deep down, I know this whole EV push is actually a plot by the IAFF to keep their jobs relevant.



uhhhhh....

....for the copper, to resell it on the scrap market. The same reason people were stealing our shore lines before EVs were a thing. Shore line = charging cable for emergency vehicles with lots of parasitic drain and/or 24/7 climate control to keep drugs at temp.

We will be getting the Mach-E. I never buy the first year of any new design, and I never buy when demand is outpacing supply. While professionally I use bleeding edge technology, I tend to be a relatively late adopter in my personal life as I have been cut too often professionally. For example, iPhone 4 was our first iPhone. That, combined with the supply chain issues, means no new vehicles for us until 2024 as we are starting to get indicators that supply chain disruptions will continue throughout 2022 and components for 2024 vehicles start being built in the spring of 2023.

[Mitch]

We will be getting the Mach-E. I never buy the first year of any new design, and I never buy when demand is outpacing supply. While professionally I use bleeding edge technology, I tend to be a relatively late adopter in my personal life as I have been cut too often professionally. For example, iPhone 4 was our first iPhone. That, combined with the supply chain issues, means no new vehicles for us until 2024 as we are starting to get indicators that supply chain disruptions will continue throughout 2022 and components for 2024 vehicles start being built in the spring of 2023.

So from your perspective does that mean we can expect the used market to stay disrupted for another 3 years as well?

[0ddl0t]

uhhhhh....

....for the copper, to resell it on the scrap market. The same reason people were stealing our shore lines before EVs were a thing. Shore line = charging cable for emergency vehicles with lots of parasitic drain and/or 24/7 climate control to keep drugs at temp.

Tweaker economics must pencil out a bit differently in your neck of the woods. A 21 foot level 2 charging cable weighs under 5lb and scrap copper goes for about $2.40/lb here - a caper worth less than $12 - that only after you laborously strip it down. Minimum wage is $14...

Here the value in the cables is in selling them back to ev owners for less than the $200+ it would otherwise cost owners to replace them. But that only works when the cables are still intact.

[LittleLebowski]

I don’t see that being a thing for a long, long, time.

Even if charging was possible as quickly as fueling a gas engine, it’ll be decades before the infrastructure is in place.

And by then, I suspect there will be some pretty big reckonings regarding electric vehicles. Chief among them the lack of state revenue from lost gas taxes. I don’t see why a state wouldn’t cipher of the lifespan of an equivalent gas vehicle, the associated lost tax revenue, and charge that a the time of sale for the original buyer. Seems totally logical to me.

I also suspect that between now and then there are some other reckonings coming, like battery disposal issues, people living with the cars long term, what I predict will be atrocious resale value, etc.

I’m waiting to see what happens if Biden destroys domestic energy production.

[farscott]

So from your perspective does that mean we can expect the used market to stay disrupted for another 3 years as well?

My crystal ball is fuzzy and cracked, so the following is worth what was paid for it -- nothing. I believe the used car market will stay disrupted until we enter into Great Recession II. When that will be is anyone's guess.

The issue is that adding semiconductor capacity takes years, not months. And it is not just microcontrollers; it is everything from capacitors (not a semiconductor) to diodes to FPGAs. While companies are building new fabs and investing in new technology, the payoff will not be visible in new parts for more than two years. Once the parts are available, they can be sold, assembled into modules, and sent to the OEMs for final vehicle assembly, which all takes months. To me, that means that until demand subsides or the new capacity comes online, demand will be higher than supply.

If I thought we could get by with one vehicle, I would sell my car in a heartbeat as it is worth more than I paid for it when I consider net outlay (sold a car to help pay for it), and it is a 2017. But we need two vehicles, and I am not buying one unless forced to do so.

[omega9]

Tweaker economics must pencil out a bit differently in your neck of the woods. A 21 foot level 2 charging cable weighs under 5lb and scrap copper goes for about $2.40/lb here - a caper worth less than $12 - that only after you laborously strip it down. Minimum wage is $14...

Here the value in the cables is in selling them back to ev owners for less than the $200+ it would otherwise cost owners to replace them. But that only works when the cables are still intact.

You’re using reason, tweekers don’t. If they only get 10 bucks a pop for a cable then they only have to steal 9 of them to score an 8 ball and a pack of smokes.

Selling them back takes too much effort unless they know someone in the business that’s willing to give them cash up front.

Hell, I’ve seen people steal roundup from Home Depot to sell to the lawn crews at half price.

[TGS]

You’re using reason, tweekers don’t. If they only get 10 bucks a pop for a cable then they only have to steal 9 of them to score an 8 ball and a pack of smokes.

Selling them back takes too much effort unless they know someone in the business that’s willing to give them cash up front.

Hell, I’ve seen people steal roundup from Home Depot to sell to the lawn crews at half price.

Seriously.

People will chew apart through a giant HVAC unit on un-patrolled commercial property just to get $25 worth of copper. Snagging a few cables and pulling the copper is nothing. OC might be doing the big heists on construction sites, ports, etc but you're on point that tweakers and other unorganized malcontents will steal copper scraps from the "lesser" sources. It doesn't matter whether any of us think it makes sense according to our world view.

I'm not here to debate reality though, so I'm done. The fact that copper theft causes over a billion dollars in losses nationwide every year and rose sharply in 2020 (particularly attributable to the EV market) can't just be wished away, even by the liberal northern california good idea fairy.

[BehindBlueI's]

Tweaker economics must pencil out a bit differently in your neck of the woods. A 21 foot level 2 charging cable weighs under 5lb and scrap copper goes for about $2.40/lb here - a caper worth less than $12 - that only after you laborously strip it down. Minimum wage is $14...

Here the value in the cables is in selling them back to ev owners for less than the $200+ it would otherwise cost owners to replace them. But that only works when the cables are still intact.

It's kind of hilarious how out of your element you are right now.