RESULTS The final sample of 511 gunshot victims and survivors (n = 220 fatal; n = 291 nonfatal) was
predominantly male (n = 470 [92.2%]), black (n = 413 [80.8%]) or Hispanic (n = 69 [13.5%]), and
young (mean [SD] age, 26.8 [9.4] years). Police investigations determined firearm caliber in 184
nonfatal cases (63.2%) and 183 fatal cases (83.2%). These 367 cases were divided into 3 groups by
caliber: small (.22, .25, and .32), medium (.38, .380, and 9 mm), or large (.357 magnum, .40, .44
magnum, .45, 10 mm, and 7.62 × 39 mm).
Firearm caliber had no systematic association with the
number of wounds, the location of wounds, circumstances of the assault, or victim characteristics, as
demonstrated by χ2 tests of each cluster of variables and by a comprehensive multinomial logit
analysis. A logit analysis of the likelihood of death found that compared with small-caliber cases,
medium caliber had an odds ratio of 2.25 (95%CI, 1.37-3.70; P = .001) and large caliber had an odds
ratio of 4.54 (95%CI, 2.37-8.70; P < .001).
Based on a simulation using the logit equation, replacing
the medium- and large-caliber guns with small-caliber guns would have reduced gun homicides
by 39.5%.