Thanks, everyone, for your opinions so far. A little more detail on our needs:
1. We live in a wettish area. Spring time is heavy rains and occasional tornadic activity with plenty of high winds darn near all the time. Summers are mild, as is fall, generally, though we've had snow in October both years since moving here. This year's snow was a "100 year" event, allegedly, but we had several days of 6-8", and one fall well over a foot. The "100 year snow" BS scares the hell out of me, we were told the exact same thing after the first big snow we had on Long Island, and proceeded to have seven BAD years with lots and lots of snow. When we move into a new location, it seems like Winter is Coming... The previous year was mostly ice - frequently with a nice layer of powder over the top. Our neighborhood is in the county, and, as far as I can tell, my cul de sac is the absolutely last road plowed in the county. Last major snow, the plow didn't show up until about 14 hours after the last flakes fell, by which point my neighbors' combined a team of ATVs with plows and me with my "Snow Blaster" pushed by shank's mare cleared the road enough so we could get out to a "main" road. Even in the "city limits" plowing is haphazard by standards I'm used to - two winters ago we ended up driving 50+ miles to the nearest airport to catch my son returning from college, and the interstate wasn't even plowed. I've got PLENTY of experience driving in ice and snow, and that was a pretty "sporting" trip in a FWD Sienna...
2. My wife works for a critical pharmaceutical manufacturer that runs 24/7/358 (they shut down in normal times for Christmas week), and they're heavily involved in manufacturing Covid vaccines right now, so "just stay home" is not an option for her. Even when the county went "Code Red" on our last BIG snow, the plant stayed in operation, and folks who could make it to work (or stayed over for a double shift) got hefty bonuses. And, I kinda like her, so her getting to/from work as safely as possible is a plus for me. It also bears saying that, in a maximum of 8 months, 30 days and a wake up, her income is going to be the primary source of funding for my gun habits...
My specific concerns about the Sienna - either AWD or FWD, is ground clearance. The newer models have a weird "shield" perpendicular to the ground under the front bumper fascia, so there's only about 3-4" of clearance - and we frequently get more than that level of snow on the ground. I was also wildly under-whelmed with the new Sienna's power - that 4-cylinder seems pretty weak when you're on the highway and need to climb to the top of a significant hill. And it was hella loud under load - much more so than our old reliable 6-cylinder.
On the other hand, if I convince my better half to get the Forester, and the CVT shits the bed regularly, I'm not going to have much peace in my retiretude.
Looks like I really need to get her a Telluride, kind of like the various 1911s I've bought "for her" over the years...