Training to most likely or most dangerous COA?

[psalms144.1]

Most dangerous. I FUCKING hate the "most likely" thought process. If I had a dime for every non-shooting, fat, tactics blind Cleetus that told me that any shooting past 3 yards was over kill, 'cuz da EFF BEE EYE data shows "3 rounds, at 3 yards, in 3 seconds" as the average gunfight, I'd have retired a long, long time ago. And, as a full time Federal LE firearms instructor, the OVERWHELMING majority of those Cleetii were full time, sworn law enforcement officers with full arrest powers, who occasionally carried a gun when forced to do so.

I'm 100% with @Giving Back - if you train all the time like your gunfight is going to involve a squad of Nazi frogmen with air support, your ability to respond appropriately to the crack head at the gas station will be characterized by "unconscious competence."

[PNWTO]

Most dangerous.

Great post. While not exactly germane to the OP I’ve had similar frustrations with dudes who think red dots are worthless “because I’ll never shoot that far” while ignoring all the other skills; and it’s no longer worth my time to try offer an example to their counter.

That does not really address the issue.

At the risk of brevity, how about “train like your life depends on it” and accept that there will be personal and organizational nuances to that training. I’m not sure anything objective or conclusive can be gained aside from don’t be a fatty.

[okie john]

I'm 100% with @Giving Back - if you train all the time like your gunfight is going to involve a squad of Nazi frogmen with air support, your ability to respond appropriately to the crack head at the gas station will be characterized by "unconscious competence."

Sig line material, sir.


Okie John

[mmc45414]

Hence why I am discussing MLCOA vs MDCOA.... A domestic US defensive handgun use is likely the MLCOA, in terms of a shooting problem.

As a simpler example New Yorkl

I may be tracking better on what I think is the intent of your post, at what point does a person call their skills "good enough"?

In my case, I am just a suburban schumk that likes to shoot. The upside is I have the financial ability to go try and get better every week, but I am doing it because it is fun. Those poor Mexican cops don't have accesses to much of what they need (time, money, ammo, training) to get good enough to survive a deal like that. Had seen the NYC deal, hard to feel sorry for the rival gang (organized crime) leader, but that might have been something potentially surmountable, depending on if you got ahead of the curve at all, or where the first few 22LRs landed.

[JDD]

I think re-reading Sean’s and Rob’s posts pretty much sums it up.

Although for a personal addition will say I have put much more emphasis on edged weapons and combatives the past few years. My “worst COA” is also my reality: can’t carry a firearm at work and that’s also the time when I frequently meet and engage with strangers. I also happen to be solo and in remote areas most of that time. So MUC, SPEAR, blades, BJJ, and boxing are the priorities. Dry fire a few times a week and go to range enough to maintain a baseline standard with firearms.

Lastly, Defoor has a nice little “priority” list I try to adhere to:

Mindset

Fitness

Tactics

Equipment

I like the priority list, although I have increasingly been focusing on what equipment is physically on me (or the various first response folks under my operational control) at all times.

It does not matter if I have a full hi-pro setup in a ready room 20 yards down the hall, if I walked out to deal with the angry person in the other room with just the stuff that is on my body. If the situation breaks bad from there, I get to run what I brung. Same with while I am driving, or while I am at the restaurant, or any number of situations that I have a response bag full of goodies - but retrieving the bag is not practical on the timeline I need something from it.

My point is not that I need to carry a backpack load of stuff on my body, but that I do need to be mindful of what I am actually carrying on my body, and how to maximize the utility of that equipment.

[TGS]

I think there's a misunderstanding in this thread between identifying and planning for a most likely enemy course of action and enemy's most dangerous course of action.

Identifying and planning for most likely does not mean that you're ignoring most dangerous or being lazy, and only planning for most dangerous does not necessarily ensure that you are effectively addressing the most likely enemy course of action; the two threats could be entirely different in how they are manifested and executed.

[JDD]

I think there's a misunderstanding in this thread between identifying and planning for a most likely enemy course of action and enemy's most dangerous course of action.

Identifying and planning for most likely does not mean that you're ignoring most dangerous or being lazy, and only planning for most dangerous does not necessarily ensure that you are effectively addressing the most likely enemy course of action; the two threats could be entirely different in how they are manifested and executed.

I agree.

As someone who has spent a substantial amount of time planning around response to MDCOA attacks, the preparation and planning considerations beyond the most basic fundamental skills are substantially different from MLCOA situations.

Target ID, sight alignment, trigger control; along with my ability to move and communicate don't change if I am aiming at a terrorist assaulting my compound as part of a team, or the proverbial 3am crackhead in the parking lot. The crackhead scenario though, does not require most of the "emergency preparedness management" planning that I have to do around the MDCOA style incidents. In fact, I would extend that to say preparations for worst case scenarios (mostly involving planning and liaison type meetings and response drills) cut into the time that I could spend making myself a more proficient individual responder.

[TGS]

In fact, I would extend that to say preparations for worst case scenarios (mostly involving planning and liaison type meetings and response drills) cut into the time that I could spend making myself a more proficient individual responder.

I can even go one step further and explain to you how some of our preps for EMDCOA can not just detract from our preparation for EMLCOA, but actually make our EMLCOA more probable, though I think it's a highside conversation on the details.

[KEW8338]

I can even go one step further and explain to you how some of our preps for EMDCOA can not just detract from our preparation for EMLCOA, but actually make our EMLCOA more probable, though I think it's a highside conversation on the details.

Isn't that a good thing?

[TGS]

Isn't that a good thing?

Is making yourself more likely to get hit by an IED a good thing?