Chill Factor of -13 in Dallas

[omega9]

Short version is some grid equipment doesn’t take well to balls-to-the-wall to zero failures. The most significant issue immediately is turbine shaft warping... basically coal and natural gas plants turbines are really hot and then when the whole grid goes down, they are so hot they bend out of true whilst cooling down. Great way to make a four-six month problem that has $30-50m in direct costs and potentially the same in lost production costs, all while corporate bonds need to be paid at each plant. Multiply that times 50 and Texas has a problem that handicaps the entire nation.

Other stuff can happen too, but this stuff really never happens, as the grid reliability management keeps the scenarios from developing.
Well... Everywhere but the Texas. As clearly elucidated, these things only happen in Texas.

Bent rotors suck but it’ll only happen when a large unit trips off line and doesn’t have power for the turning gear. Every turbine I have seen that is that large has a DC powered turning gear. If you do have a bent rotor, there are plenty of ways to straighten it.

[omega9]

The grid is more fragile than many realize.

I am no expert but I have some customers that operate hydro dams which generate electricity. They try to keep everything as balanced as possible. It's kind of like a freight train, it takes a while to get that long train rolling and once everything is moving, adding or removing a little power is pretty easy. Introduce a big disruption and breakers start tripping and it takes a bit to bring things back online.

The other issue is the generators have a field that is basically an electromagnet. If the generator stops, the field has to be re-energized by an external power source.
These aren't your 2KW Honda generators with a 5HP motor, more like a 5,000 HP turbine that takes a bit to get running. Once it is running they will use power off the grid to energize the field and start generating electricity. The problem is that if the other generator miles away goes down or you lose the connection to it, you have no way to energize the field.

In order to keep balance among all the generators on the grid, they have to run in synch to the same frequency, 60Hz. Usually the biggest generator on the grid is the leader and the rest follow.

If they don’t have power to excite the field, they don’t have power to start the turbine. If it is a black start plant, it doesn’t need grid power for either.

[omega9]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-f...es-11613777856

The article is correct, Owners don’t have to run the unit but anyone with a generator wanted the unit on line during the whole freeze. Some plants were making a million an hour.

If the power plants were bid into the Non-Spin market or Day Ahead and they weren’t online, they will be heavily fined.

[Half Moon]

Is the power utility in TX privately owned? How can they charge someone that much for power? I don't think that could happen here because utility rates are based on the cost of service. PUDs here are nonprofit utilities owned by the public, not by stockholders. They are in business solely to provide service at cost and regulated by statute.

As I understand it, in Texas the transmission infrastructure is publicly owned but the generation plants are privately owned. Regulators set caps on pricing but they are pretty generous. Normal cost is about $20 to $30 per MWh but at the height of the crisis hit the $9,000 per MWh cap so like 360 times the norm. All tangential stuff seen on the Internet so may not be accurate but what I've read anyways.

[TQP]

Big fire requires big water. Even if they have the equipment to get water from ponds and the like (and I'm betting they don't, most cities don't) , you can only get and move so much.

During the Northeast blackout of 2003 Cleveland made a statewide call for tankers because almost all of their water is pumped from Lake Erie and they had pretty much 0 water pressure.

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2021...ll-smoldering/

Huge fire at far North Bexar County apartment complex still smoldering
Firefighters have had problems due to water outages

[RoyGBiv]

Is the power utility in TX privately owned? How can they charge someone that much for power? I don't think that could happen here because utility rates are based on the cost of service. PUDs here are nonprofit utilities owned by the public, not by stockholders. They are in business solely to provide service at cost and regulated by statute.

My electric rate has 2 parts. I pay the grid provider (Oncor, here) a regulated fee for power delivery.
Then I negotiate with private sellers or brokers for the cost of electrons. I pay the Oncor fees on the same bill as electric.

There is no required minimum contract for the electron provider, and there are tools that help folks find the best rate and change monthly. Well, when the grid goes TU and your monthly rate has expired, you get the privilege of paying huge bucks for your next supply of electrons

https://www.griddy.com/

IMO, I would not rescue folks who took advantage of the cheapest rate. Sometimes you don't learn unless you suffer some consequences. YMMV.

[peterb]

IMO, I would not rescue folks who took advantage of the cheapest rate. Sometimes you don't learn unless you suffer some consequences. YMMV.

“... Variable-rate plans are enticing to many people because the price of electricity is often low during normal weather conditions, and because it theoretically allows people to use more electricity when the price is lower — for example, by running appliances overnight.

But when a winter storm caused Texas' grid to all but shut down last week, the wholesale price of electricity skyrocketed.

One of the most popular wholesale plans in the state is offered by the company Griddy. As the storm moved in, the company took the extraordinary step of urging its customers to switch to a different electricity provider. But it was too late for many residents. Switching electricity companies can take days, and in the meantime the price of electricity increased dramatically.”

“The average price for electricity in Texas in the winter is about 12 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Texas utility regulators allowed that price to rise to $9 per kilowatt-hour.”

https://www.npr.org/sections/live-up...electric-bills

[peterb]

And Jerry Jones is making huge profits on gas....

“... Yet Comstock Resources is selling gas at prices ranging from $15 per thousand cubic feet to $179 per thousand cubic feet, a markup of between 600% and 7500% over pre-crisis levels.”

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/19/je...s-power-crisis

[gringop]

Just a quick update,

It was close to 80 degrees in Austin today, I changed the oil in the big generator today, and ran it for another 5 min. All power cords, USB chargers and other things have been returned by neighbors.

I've got a pretty good list of things that need to be added/upgraded to work better for the next outage. I'll wait until the stores are back to normal to get them.

I neglected to bring up this image/these words that never left my mind while this whole episode was happening.

Thank you, Matt Graham

Gringop (Always Be Working)

[Shotgun]

Old news on high charges, but new story on how high ($16,000+): https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/20/u...ric-bills.html

Similar to what was just posted by gringop: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-boy...power-outages/

"No one owes you [or] your family anything; nor is it the local government's responsibility to support you during trying times like this!" he said. "Sink or swim it's your choice! The City and County,
along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING! I'm sick and tired of people looking for a damn handout."