Airsoft training may be most useful in steel challenge where you can shoot very low power factor ammo, you are shooting single shots at each target, there aren't reloads on the clock, etc. I'm not convinced the advantages outweigh the disadvantages (different weight, different trigger, more admin time) in other sports or in self defense training.
Regular old dry fire may not be "fun" but winning and improving is fun and dry fire enables that.
Unless you are like me, dry fire a couple of hours a week and still suck.Originally Posted by Eyesquared
I am still waiting for an informed and thoughtful analysis. At the range today, someone told me that the government was controlling primers, although they couldn’t explain how.
If you listen to the above video, made in July, while entertaining, a number of the referenced metrics are incorrect. For example, he says in the video that there is a raw material problem because the price of lead has risen and the supply of lead is constrained. However if you look at the price of lead, you will see it crashed in April/May, with supply greater than demand, and as of July was substantially less costly than in Nov of 2019 when 9mm was $168/1,000.
The claim is made in the video that the current demand is 10X post Newtown, and this claim is attributed to ammunition sales people, as if you can measure demand that is not fulfilled. Vista just said that they have a one year backlog of ammo orders, but of course Boeing also said they had a multi year backlog of 737 orders.
To understand more, I would like to see production and sales numbers of 9mm by month for 2019 and 2020. Given that prices are 3X higher, there is a lot of room to be able to pay higher component costs and extra labor costs, and still make a tidy profit. The video states that the industry made 8 billion rounds, a year or two ago. Even if demand is 5X, at .50-.60/round for 9mm, that is a lot of money to increase production. Something just doesn’t add up.
Likes pretty much everything in every caliber.
”I love a sub second awib A zone hit so much that my hands twitch when the microwave goes off.”
I think you need to make that your sig line! Good stuff.
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master"
Link to the Vista Outdoors Q2 earnings call. Fair amount of discussing of the Remington ammo acquisition, access to their 9mm manufacturing capability, and general ramping up of 9mm ammo manufacturing capability. Ammo is making them a pile of money — capitalism at work.I am still waiting for an informed and thoughtful analysis. At the range today, someone told me that the government was controlling primers, although they couldn’t explain how.
If you listen to the above video, made in July, while entertaining, a number of the referenced metrics are incorrect. For example, he says in the video that there is a raw material problem because the price of lead has risen and the supply of lead is constrained. However if you look at the price of lead, you will see it crashed in April/May, with supply greater than demand, and as of July was substantially less costly than in Nov of 2019 when 9mm was $168/1,000.
The claim is made in the video that the current demand is 10X post Newtown, and this claim is attributed to ammunition sales people, as if you can measure demand that is not fulfilled. Vista just said that they have a one year backlog of ammo orders, but of course Boeing also said they had a multi year backlog of 737 orders.
To understand more, I would like to see production and sales numbers of 9mm by month for 2019 and 2020. Given that prices are 3X higher, there is a lot of room to be able to pay higher component costs and extra labor costs, and still make a tidy profit. The video states that the industry made 8 billion rounds, a year or two ago. Even if demand is 5X, at .50-.60/round for 9mm, that is a lot of money to increase production. Something just doesn’t add up.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/438...all-transcript
Likes pretty much everything in every caliber.
Yeah, there is the "toilet paper effect", where they demand spikes and the normal pace of delivery can't keep up. But there's also the capitalistic opportunity for suppliers to make a lot of money with the inflated prices. We are hearing that production is maxed out, one component or another is limited, that adding new production lines is slow and horribly expensive, etc.
Still, where's that good old American capitalistic response to an opportunity to make honest money by fulfilling what appears to be a significant demand.
Judging by what I've seen poking my head into a couple of local gun shops, there's no shortage of people willing - - - wanting! - - - to buy guns and ammo. With all the accompanying sales and federal excise taxes.
Sure it adds up. Just look at all the guns flying off the shelves. You can't feed them Rice Krispies.I am still waiting for an informed and thoughtful analysis. At the range today, someone told me that the government was controlling primers, although they couldn’t explain how.
If you listen to the above video, made in July, while entertaining, a number of the referenced metrics are incorrect. For example, he says in the video that there is a raw material problem because the price of lead has risen and the supply of lead is constrained. However if you look at the price of lead, you will see it crashed in April/May, with supply greater than demand, and as of July was substantially less costly than in Nov of 2019 when 9mm was $168/1,000.
The claim is made in the video that the current demand is 10X post Newtown, and this claim is attributed to ammunition sales people, as if you can measure demand that is not fulfilled. Vista just said that they have a one year backlog of ammo orders, but of course Boeing also said they had a multi year backlog of 737 orders.
To understand more, I would like to see production and sales numbers of 9mm by month for 2019 and 2020. Given that prices are 3X higher, there is a lot of room to be able to pay higher component costs and extra labor costs, and still make a tidy profit. The video states that the industry made 8 billion rounds, a year or two ago. Even if demand is 5X, at .50-.60/round for 9mm, that is a lot of money to increase production. Something just doesn’t add up.
You also have all the gun/ammo buyers who were around in 2012 who see the inevitable shortage and are stacking deep.
-Seconds Count. Misses Don't-
I've a couple of ideas how I am gonna handle this.
First, I got myself this multi caliber thing
Second, I have a reasonable stash of 45 acp ammo that I've not been using. I plan on shooting that over 9 mm, and Imma gonna go for .15 splits only. I figured I either gonna get real good or it will fuck my elbows bad enough so I'd have to take long enough break for 9 to show up again.
Doesn't read posts longer than two paragraphs.
Getting by on a mere 2000 rounds a month is rough... real rough.Short of having an unlimited ammo source, which almost no one does this days, rich or poor, reloader or not, sport or defensive shooter — you will be getting by with less live fire rounds. How you use those rounds will be different, depending upon your objectives — some primarily shoot for fun, some for sport, others primarily for defense.
What I haven’t heard yet is a thoughtful analysis of what happened with ammo, and what the short and long term outlook is likely to be. I would be just guessing to what happened and why, and when if ever, will it get better.
My wife now says she can “get by” with 2,000 rounds a month. That is 50 rounds times 20 days for practice, and 250 rounds a weekend for matches.I don't think I've fired that many rounds so far this year, total combined, of all calibers.
I wont say its thoughtful, but this is how I see the ammo shortage: Short term, if you want to shoot and don't have a stockpile ( ammo/ reloading components), you'll pay out the nose. Buying new ammo, or reloading with new, current bought components, you will be spending significantly more money than you did a year ago. I suspect the current shortage will last at least another year, if nothing changes and Trump stays. If Biden makes it into office, and immediately pushes gun control, I can see the panic lasting at least another year beyond that. Any additional mob violence and peaceful protests will drive additional panic pricing and availability. Same with any Biden ammo import restrictions.
Long term, if sanity returns, you'll see availability increase slowly, and prices come down at the same slow rate. Sanity goes out the window... Katy bar the door... we ain't seen nothin' yet.
I was suspicious when you of all people wrote that you'd be shooting 100 rounds per practice session, but 20 days of practice in a month certainly explains that.Short of having an unlimited ammo source, which almost no one does this days, rich or poor, reloader or not, sport or defensive shooter — you will be getting by with less live fire rounds. How you use those rounds will be different, depending upon your objectives — some primarily shoot for fun, some for sport, others primarily for defense.
What I haven’t heard yet is a thoughtful analysis of what happened with ammo, and what the short and long term outlook is likely to be. I would be just guessing to what happened and why, and when if ever, will it get better.
My wife now says she can “get by” with 2,000 rounds a month. That is 50 rounds times 20 days for practice, and 250 rounds a weekend for matches.
Personally I haven't actually been shooting less up until now, I've averaged around 200 rounds per week for this year. I still have around 25k primers left and maybe 8k bullets. I'll be taking a month-long offseason this winter and I pray some sanity returns by spring so I don't have to dip too deep into the stockpile.
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