First, good and reasoned discussion. Thanks!
Second, the Senate is not the only challenge for legislation. A much narrowed House Democratic majority is a huge liability in the 2022 Midterm election. The Assault Weapons Ban experience for the Democrats scared them off almost all federal gun control for two decades...
Pressure on 10 purple-state Democratic Representatives +/- will be all that it takes to prevent almost any gun controls bills. That is why the purple battleground states are so valuable to building a legislative coalition, not just for Presidential elections. So if you have a Democrat as your Representative, be nice and start a dialogue ASAP.