Election 2020 Stats & Info ONLY

[trailrunner]

According to the WSJ, Biden leads Trump in NV by less than 12k with 24 percent of the vote there remaining to be counted. That's a pretty small margin with a lot of votes left to count. Since the last update from NV on Tuesday night, Trump has narrowed the gap. The key is where does that remaining 24 percent come from? Which way do those voters lean?

Also according to the WSJ, GA has counted 99 percent of their votes, and Trump leads Biden by 13k votes. Like NV, that's a very slim margin, but presumably there are only a few votes left to count. But there could be enough Biden votes in that remaining 1 percent to win it for Biden. As I said, 13k votes is very slim.

I think PA and NC are safe for Trump. No hard evidence. Trump has a sizable lead in PA (100k, I think), and has a good cushion in NC (80k, I think) and most of their votes are counted.

One thing to note that if we were to call the election right now, at this moment, Biden would pick up the 6 votes from NV, giving him the 270 he needs - barely. That would make that 1 vote he got from NE the decider. I guess you could argue that that was offset by the 1 vote Trump got from Maine, but geez, that would still be a quirk of the electoral college system.

[Borderland]

CNN is reporting that Trump can still potentially win AZ.

There are only 4 counties in AZ that haven't been decided. Two of those are trending Trump but they aren't heavily populated and the count is 90% complete. One county, Pinal, is between Tucson and Phoenix is trending Trump but again, it's not heavily populated. The big question is in Maricopa county (Phoenix) which is heavily populated and trending Biden who is ahead in the state by over 2%.

The problem of Trump winning AZ is that there are 4 million more people in Maricopa county than Pinal county. If the trend continues in those two counties Biden wins it handily, which has already been called by Fox and AP for that reason. I wouldn't put a lot of hope in Trump winning AZ. He has a much better chance in NV but you have to remember that many people who live in Reno and LV are CA refugees.

[RoyGBiv]

Interesting...... Unlikely, but.... interesting...

Wait, do Republicans actually have a chance of winning the House?

I haven’t verified the following independently but Adrian Gray used to work at the RNC. I doubt he’d tweet these numbers if he wasn’t sure about them:

416 House races appear decided
Democrats 212
Republicans 204 (+10)
19 Seats remain, GOP lead in 10
To win 218 (and House majority), GOP would need to win all the districts they are leading in, plus:
CA-25
GA-07
PA-17
UT-04
— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 5, 2020

[littlejerry]

Interesting...... Unlikely, but.... interesting...

Wait, do Republicans actually have a chance of winning the House?

That Blue wave tho

[the Schwartz]

That Blue wave tho

The "Blue Wave™" was more like this—

https://www.weather.gov/hfo/may3tsunami

[Borderland]

Looks like GA presidential vote may come down to a few thousand votes for the winner. Will there be a recount?

[BillSWPA]

Trump remains about 90,000 votes ahead and I understand they may know the winner by the end of the day. The rate of deterioration in his lead seems to have slowed.

[Borderland]

Trump remains about 90,000 votes ahead and I understand they may know the winner by the end of the day. The rate of deterioration in his lead seems to have slowed.

AP reporting about 9500 more for Trump. That could easily go either way with 48,000 votes left to be counted.

[Mark D]

Details of a democratic party teleconference have apparently been leaked. At least some members are beginning to realize that Socialism and defund the police are not election winning ideas.

The big question that remains is whether they actually change their platform, or leave the platform the same and just change their language.

I expect they won't change their platform or change the language. They'll simply double down.

[shootist26]

I expect they won't change their platform or change the language. They'll simply double down.

Lol exactly. The platform is most heavily supported by the youth wing of the party. There is no way the Dem party will self moderate themselves and cut off their own future.