Two weeks out, Make your predictions now.

[Borderland]

The latest IBD/TIPP poll shows Biden’s lead narrowing to about 3%. The Hunter emails are clearly having an effect.

There are no doubt people who are afraid to say they support Trump, and no doubt this has affected the polling.

The huge volume of mail-in voting and now a 4-4 decision of the US Supreme Court allowing Pennsylvania to count ballots received up to 3 days after the election unless clearly postmarked later presents numerous opportunities for fraud. We are going to see Broward County 2000 in many locations with Democratic election judges.

Trump is winning? Look, here is another box of ballots to count, and they are all for Biden. That postmark looks unclear. A vote for Trump? Definitely mailed after Election Day. A vote for Biden? Too unclear, so we will have to count it.

The new “hanging chad” will be the envelope postmark.


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I don't know anything about PA so I won't comment on the potential for fraud there. I will say this about ballots in WA though. As long as ones ballot is post marked on Nov 3rd the ballot is counted in the following days. That gives the USPS a window to deliver the ballot if someone votes by mail on election day. We've been doing that for 10 years and to my knowledge there has never been a problem with fraud. Kim Wyman (R) is our sec of state (directs elections) and she will probably be reelected.

Because PA is a swing state there will probably be law suits into 2021 contesting the outcome there just like there were in FL. I don't think it will matter in this election though because Biden will probably win by a margin that can't be overcome by the PA electoral votes.

I don't really have a dog in this fight because what I do doesn't matter. The election will take place and the winner is the winner, regardless of fraud, highjacked ballots, media bias, and any other unfair advantage I can think of. Just like when Hillary Clinton was robbed , somebody's going to lose.

[olstyn]

I'm hopeful that we don't end up with Biden as President, but not remotely sure enough to call it one way or the other. I think it's safe to predict that we will have protests and/or riots with either possible result, though.

[Mark D]

Trump by a large margin on election night. But it will get dragged into the courts. And then it's in the hand of the lawyers and activist judges. So I expect all kinds of "hanging chad" nonsense, and truckloads of suddenly discovered ballots. Messy. Hopefully DJT will prevail.

I don't know why people still pay attention to the polls. Have we all forgotten 2016?

[RevolverRob]

Here is my prediction:

Neither my wife nor I will get to vote. Because despite requesting our absentee ballots back in AUGUST they have not been mailed to us.

[Rex G]

I predict a messy, stressful two weeks. I won’t hazard a guess, on the election. Our neighborhood’s yard signs indicate a Biden landslide, but what does that mean, in a county that got “blue-waved” in 2016?

[sqeeler]

Hoping for Trump but fully expecting a Biden win, I'm trying to optimistic but my wife says I am definitely a pessimist. The next month is definitely going to be interesting.

[BillSWPA]

I don't know anything about PA so I won't comment on the potential for fraud there. I will say this about ballots in WA though. As long as ones ballot is post marked on Nov 3rd the ballot is counted in the following days. That gives the USPS a window to deliver the ballot if someone votes by mail on election day. We've been doing that for 10 years and to my knowledge there has never been a problem with fraud. Kim Wyman (R) is our sec of state (directs elections) and she will probably be reelected.

Because PA is a swing state there will probably be law suits into 2021 contesting the outcome there just like there were in FL. I don't think it will matter in this election though because Biden will probably win by a margin that can't be overcome by the PA electoral votes.

I don't really have a dog in this fight because what I do doesn't matter. The election will take place and the winner is the winner, regardless of fraud, highjacked ballots, media bias, and any other unfair advantage I can think of. Just like when Hillary Clinton was robbed , somebody's going to lose.

The Pennsylvania statute explicitly requires ballots to be delivered by 8 pm on election day to be counted. Anyone who is afraid that their ballot will not be delivered should simply mail it early. The PA Supreme Court, in a divided opinion, decided that this statute somehow violated a PA constitutional provision about voting rights, and permitted the 3 day extension. That opinion has signs of being politically motivated.

In prior elections mail-in ballots were rarely of sufficient number to sway the outcome. This election will be different.

Philadelphia is infamous for elections in which the number of votes cast exceeds the number of registered voters. Just this year, I have read about two elections judges in this state having been convicted of election-related crimes, including one for stuffing the ballot box.

Several years ago PA switched from paper ballots to machines that do not generate a paper record. Without fail, every single election was accompanied by reports of people who voted one way, but when the confirmation screen was shown, it indicated that they were about to vote the other way. Attempts to go back and correct the situation produced the same result. Almost invariably, it was a Republican vote being switched to a Democratic vote. The problem was invariably blamed on a "calibration error," which, based on my understanding of microcontroller programming, makes no sense.

More recently, the older paperless machines were replaced by new machines which read paper ballots filled out by the voter. The voter walks in, fills out the paper ballot, and then walks over to insert it into the machine. The voter knows right then and there that their vote was counted, and how they voted. The existence of the paper ballots makes monkey business much more difficult. At least in my county, Republicans have been performing better in elections with the new system.

A significant percentage of mail-in ballots provides a significant opportunity for game playing. I am particularly suspicious because the push for mail-in balloting was happening at the same time that the state was 1) requiring nursing homes to accept patients with COVID even when other options were known, driving up death rates, and 2) counting "probable" cases as actual cases even though the definition of a probable case matched the eligibility standards for a test, and 80% of the tests at the time were negative. Is it possible that COVID is being used to scare people into voting by mail rrather than showing up in person?

I do accept that most election judges and poll workers are honest. However, it may only take a small number of dishonest ones to change the results.

[Mitch]

I think Democrats are going to control the White House and both chambers of Congress next year.

Hopefully ACB is confirmed soon. I just got a Model 70 and a Glock 43X because I’m afraid of what is coming down the pipeline.

[BillSWPA]

As a Trump supporter, I really hope he does not act like he did during the first debate. The microphones will be muted while the other candidate is talking, which may work to Trump's benefit, as long as they don't mute him mid-stream as he talks about Hunter Biden or packing the Supreme Court.

[BillSWPA]

Regarding polling, on more than one occasion, I have read about two polls coming out the same day, one showing Trump only behind by a small amount, and the other showing Trump hugely behind. The "margin of error" stated for the polls is only a fraction of the difference between the two polls. I do not have either easy access to the methodology or time to review it, but what is totally clear is that something is really badly wrong with the polls this time around.