Two weeks out, Make your predictions now.

[mtnbkr]

I was surprised at the number of folks from NJ and the northeast at UNCW. I guess when Rutgers is ~$30k for in-state, paying ~$30K for out-of-state to live on the beach is a better plan. Lots and lots of Karen stories.

I went to college in NC and graduated in '96. There were a lot of folks from NY and NJ at that sleepy little school. My first two roommates were NY and NJ (in that order). NY guy was a good roommate, NJ guy looked and acted like a Jersey Shore reject (many years before that show and reality TV in general existed).

Chris

[delphidoc]

Two comments about polling:

1) My understanding is that the polls that show Biden up by 8% or whatever number are flawed in that they overrepresent Democrats by a large percentage or are otherwise flawed methodology-wise. Lots of "news" articles routinely refer to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. What good is that average if the polls it's based on are flawed to begin with?

2) Polling and publication of the poll results have been going on during the last week. My memory may be flawed but I seem to remember in elections past that polling stopped during the last week of the races, so voter turnout was not unduly influenced. Does anybody else remember it that way?

[the Schwartz]

I guess they don't cotton to the idea.

[RoyGBiv]

1) My understanding is that the polls that show Biden up by 8% or whatever number are flawed in that they overrepresent Democrats by a large percentage or are otherwise flawed methodology-wise. Lots of "news" articles routinely refer to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. What good is that average if the polls it's based on are flawed to begin with?

Pollster Frank Luntz: If Trump defies polls again in 2020, 'my profession is done'

[vcdgrips]

As I have posted before, I am a 1987 Honors Graduate in Political Science from a 3rd Tier state school=Big Whoop.

operative presumptions

1. Trump under polled significantly in 2016
2. Trump is under polling in 2020
3. Determining by how much is the rub/I know I am using WAGs/round numbers

What I do-

A. I give the margin of error to Trump
B. I add the margin of error to the initial poll number and then multiply by 1.05
C. I believe that number is more reflective of the electorate

The sum of the 538 polls has it 51.9 v 43.5 with about a 5% margin or error.

Trump- 43.5+5 point margin of error=48.5 x1.05= 50.9

Doing those same calculations yields similar results in MN/WI/MI/PA etc.

Blessings to you all in this time.

[OfficeCat]

For what it's worth, fivethirtyeight recently did a map with the exact polling error in each state from 2016 factored into the 2020 polls, and Biden was still winning the electoral college by a pretty significant amount. Probably doesn't mean much though as so many variables have changed since 2016 in polling methodologies, the political landscape and the nature of the candidates.

[HeavyDuty]

I have a horrible confession.

I could probably live with Joe as president so long as there was a strong opposition in both legislatures. (I wouldn’t vote for him, though.)

What I can’t live with is the probability that Kamala will end up president, either during this first term or as the headliner in the next. Joe had so many other options for veep, and he picked the absolute scariest one I could possibly think of. It has noth8ng to do with her gender, it’s her politics. Cultural Revolution 2.0, here we come.

[Lex Luthier]

I have a horrible confession.

I could probably live with Joe as president so long as there was a strong opposition in both legislatures. (I wouldn’t vote for him, though.)

What I can’t live with is the probability that Kamala will end up president, either during this first term or as the headliner in the next. Joe had so many other options for veep, and he picked the absolute scariest one I could possibly think of. It has noth8ng to do with her gender, it’s her politics. Cultural Revolution 2.0, here we come.

She was my state Attorney General for 3 years. You have every reason to be wary of her.

[BillSWPA]

On a lighter, far less scientific note, a bakery in Pennsylvania has been selling Trump and Biden cookies, with Trump cookies outselling Biden 6-1. One customer drove from Staten Island to buy them, twice.

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/p...ner-owner-says

I will be rolling on the floor laughing if this bakery's results end up being more accurate than the lamestream media polls.

[feudist]

I have a horrible confession.

I could probably live with Joe as president so long as there was a strong opposition in both legislatures. (I wouldn’t vote for him, though.)

What I can’t live with is the probability that Kamala will end up president, either during this first term or as the headliner in the next. Joe had so many other options for veep, and he picked the absolute scariest one I could possibly think of. It has noth8ng to do with her gender, it’s her politics. Cultural Revolution 2.0, here we come.

I think Kamala was a concession to the hard radical left to get them on board. Why else would you pick her? Damn near the least popular primary candidate, but reliably

nutty and easy to control with black shaming if she's not radical enough. I think AOC and her ilk are laying suspiciously low, because they got what they want.

Joe will be president in name only, and probably not for long. We could get 11 + years of Kamalamadigdong.