Page 7 of 8 FirstFirst ... 5678 LastLast
Results 61 to 70 of 72

Thread: Great Barrington Declaration

  1. #61
    Member Sensei's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    MI/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bio View Post
    I'm pretty sure you're right about that. Basically, N95 is the best of the non-industrial masks, then surgical, then cloth. Cloth is still better than nothing.


    Edit, got the original cited article on work computer:

    MacIntyre, CR etc al 2015, BMJ Open

    The main, non-obvious issue from the short summary linked earlier in this article was that the control group wasn't "no masks" it was "do what you would do normally". That means the participants did what they wanted. Of 458 members of the control group, 245 used both types of masks, probably depending on local availability (my own guess), 3 used n95s, 2 used no masks at all. The remainder of the control group used some kind of mask, but I couldn't find what type. The test groups (cloth or surgical, about 500 each) were given masks to use for the time of study.

    What this means isn't that cloth masks were compared to a control of non-masked users, it's that cloth masks were compare to a control of a mix of cloth and surgical, with <1% N95 or maskless. So its obvious from more study that surgical was notably better than cloth, but its not obvious how cloth compares to maksless. Probably because you can't ask healthcare workers to stop making up because you want to know what will happen.
    Actually, the best available evidence is that N95s and surgical masks are essentially equivalent at preventing actual viral respiratory illness:

    N95 respirators vs medical masks for preventing influenza among health care personnel: A randomized clinical trial. Radonovich LJ Jr, Simberkoff MS, Bessesen MT, et al. JAMA. 2019;322(9):824-833. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2019.11645

    This was a robust randomized trial that looked at laboratory confirmed influenza as a primary outcome as well as all-cause respiratory virus transmission as a secondary outcome.

    The big problem that I have with cloth masks is that they may give a false sense of protection that encourages lax physical distancing. That is probably why we are seeing upticks in COVID new cases and little improvements in positivity rates as compliance with masking increases. That is to say, it is the physical distancing that is at the business end of preventing spread; masking doesnít appear to be doing much. I might feel differently if everyone was wearing quality surgical masks and disposing them after a single dayís use.
    I like my rifles like my women - short, light, fast, brown, and suppressed.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post

    The big problem that I have with cloth masks is that they may give a false sense of protection that encourages lax physical distancing. That is probably why we are seeing upticks in COVID new cases and little improvements in positivity rates as compliance with masking increases.
    In my state, the uptick appears to be about colleges and things that college kids do. At least that's what waste-water metrics suggest.

  3. #63
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    Missouri
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post

    The big problem that I have with cloth masks is that they may give a false sense of protection that encourages lax physical distancing. That is probably why we are seeing upticks in COVID new cases and little improvements in positivity rates as compliance with masking increases. That is to say, it is the physical distancing that is at the business end of preventing spread; masking doesnít appear to be doing much. I might feel differently if everyone was wearing quality surgical masks and disposing them after a single dayís use.
    Theres a lot of assumptions in that hypotheses, but even if it is correct, that sounds like an education issue, not a mask issue. If someone was wearing a seat belt and decided to drive recklessly because they thought a seat elt would keep them safe, that doesn't mean seatbelts are bad.

  4. #64
    Member Sensei's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    MI/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bio View Post
    Theres a lot of assumptions in that hypotheses, but even if it is correct, that sounds like an education issue, not a mask issue. If someone was wearing a seat belt and decided to drive recklessly because they thought a seat elt would keep them safe, that doesn't mean seatbelts are bad.
    It sounds like you are drawing an analogy to the Peltzman effect of risk compensation. Peltzman was eventually proven wrong about seat belts, but his risk compensation model has held up in other industries and aspects of life.

    With respect to cloth masks, probably the most dangerous assumption is that they offer meaningful protection against COVID. Again, Iím not anti mask - Iím anti cloth mask. As for it being an education issue, the fact that COVID cases are rising despite record masking should tell you that the cornerstone of mitigation will center on education - specifically education about risk compensation.
    I like my rifles like my women - short, light, fast, brown, and suppressed.

  5. #65
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    CT
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post
    With respect to cloth masks, probably the most dangerous assumption is that they offer meaningful protection against COVID. Again, Iím not anti mask - Iím anti cloth mask. As for it being an education issue, the fact that COVID cases are rising despite record masking should tell you that the cornerstone of mitigation will center on education - specifically education about risk compensation.
    Do you believe cloth masks or other cloth face coverings are helpful in reducing the risk that the wearer will spread the disease (not contract it) or not?

  6. #66
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    Missouri
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post
    It sounds like you are drawing an analogy to the Peltzman effect of risk compensation. Peltzman was eventually proven wrong about seat belts, but his risk compensation model has held up in other industries and aspects of life.

    With respect to cloth masks, probably the most dangerous assumption is that they offer meaningful protection against COVID. Again, Iím not anti mask - Iím anti cloth mask. As for it being an education issue, the fact that COVID cases are rising despite record masking should tell you that the cornerstone of mitigation will center on education - specifically education about risk compensation.
    Mind sharing the specific data you're looking at? I know locally the areas that are rising fastest are the ones that have most actively resisted mask mandates, but that's just one state.

  7. #67
    Member Sensei's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    MI/NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bio View Post
    Mind sharing the specific data you're looking at? I know locally the areas that are rising fastest are the ones that have most actively resisted mask mandates, but that's just one state.
    Iím looking at the proprietary data at one of the nationís top academic medical centers that shows COVID cases increasing in our state and across the US. I get daily updates regarding our COVID census and projected capabilities because Iím one of the intensivists who will staff our special pathogens unit. Right now, we have double the in-patient COVID cases that we had just 4 weeks ago. Our data from HHS shows that:

    The U.S. is up about 51,000 new cases per day over the past week.

    The number of new infections is rising in about 38 states, spanning every region of the country.
    Three states: Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota have seen their case counts rise by over 50%.
    The pace of new infections slowed down in only in Texas.
    I like my rifles like my women - short, light, fast, brown, and suppressed.

  8. #68
    Site Supporter DocGKR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Palo Alto, CA
    Yup, this is in concordance with my experience operating on and treating COVID positive patients at a major medical center--almost like Sensei knows what he is talking about.....

    1) This is a novel respiratory virus and we are a population with very little if any native immunity. The early predictions of 70-80% of the population eventually coming in contact with the virus were probably correct, and little is known about re-infection susceptibility or what will be needed to achieve heard immunity (or if that is even possible).

    2) Physical distancing is effective at reducing transmission rates, but there has been no compelling evidence that we can (or could have) eliminated the virus from our environment with lockdowns. Moreover, austere physical distancing has unintended health effects that are likely under-reported.

    3) N95 and surgical masks are probably effective at reducing the rate of transmission. Little is known how these masks perform when reused. There is also very little data to suggest that cloth masks or bandannas are effective at reducing spread.

    Given those 3 points, I see no reason for austere physical distancing unless healthcare resources are be strained. That is because such distancing will not reduce the number being infected, it just spreads is out over a more manageable time. In addition, N95 or surgical masks are probably very prudent if large gatherings canít be avoided or physical distancing is impractical. I recommend surgical masks or N95 when healthcare resources are constrained or for populations at risk for severe symptoms (elderly, obese, etc.). Wearing a cloth mask while mowing your yard or walking in the park is probably a waste in terms of preventing Covid.
    AAA and SSSS work for COVID, as well as most things in life.
    Facts matter...Feelings Can Lie

  9. #69
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    Missouri
    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post
    Iím looking at the proprietary data at one of the nationís top academic medical centers that shows COVID cases increasing in our state and across the US. I get daily updates regarding our COVID census and projected capabilities because Iím one of the intensivists who will staff our special pathogens unit. Right now, we have double the in-patient COVID cases that we had just 4 weeks ago. Our data from HHS shows that:

    The U.S. is up about 51,000 new cases per day over the past week.

    The number of new infections is rising in about 38 states, spanning every region of the country.
    Three states: Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota have seen their case counts rise by over 50%.
    The pace of new infections slowed down in only in Texas.
    You certainly don't have to convince me that cases are going up, that's not why I was unconvinced about. If you can say (I'm not sure of the restrictions on your use of proprietary data), what about the data suggests cloth mask adoption is a factor in increasing case load (and not weather, schools in session, whatever)? I guess I'm thinking in terms of exponential growth. If cloth masks are lowering the transmission rate per person from, say, 1.3 to 1.2 (arbitrary numbers picked out of thin air) cases/day would still be going up, right?

    Regardless, makes you think the best bang for the government or individual buck might just be a crap ton of surgical masks. I know there were shortages in March/April, but I don't know the typical level of demand or manufacturing capacity.

  10. #70
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    PA
    Quote Originally Posted by DocGKR View Post
    Yup, this is in concordance with my experience operating on and treating COVID positive patients at a major medical center--almost like Sensei knows what he is talking about.....



    AAA and SSSS work for COVID, as well as most things in life.

    AAA and SSSS? I am not following on those terms.

User Tag List

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •