Poll: Nominee for Supreme Court Vacancy?

[DMF13]

The other thread seems to be mostly centered on whether a nominee will get a vote, and/or be confirmed.

I'd like to see opinions on who people think will get nominated, not who you want, but who you think is actually likely to be nominated, and why?

[DMF13]

I will start.

I think the nominee will be Lagoa.

1. Trump says it will be a woman (hence the four named choices in the poll).

2. She has broad appeal to "traditional" Republicans, having been appointed to State Court and the Federal courts, by Jeb Bush and George W. Bush, respectively, along with appeal to Trump supporters, having been appointed to the Fed courts again by Trump.

3. She has much more fed court experience than the other supposed front runner, Barrett.

4. When the Senate confirmed her in November 2019 she was confirmed 80-15. It will be tough for some of those Senators who had no problem with her prior lengthy Federal judicial history to say things have drastically changed in the last 10 months.

5. In contrast Barrett was confirmed 3 years ago with only 55 votes.

6. Florida is always usually a tough state for the Presidential race, with 29 Electors, and this year would appear to be the same tight race for those 29 votes. That pick might have the added benefit of picking up some more votes for Trump in Florida.

[Yung]

From a glance at Ballotpedia,

Barrett:

•2017-present: Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit
•2002-2017: Faculty, Notre Dame Law School
•2001-2002: John M. Olin Fellow, George Washington University School of Law
•1999-2001: Private practice, Washington, D.C.
•1998-1999: Law clerk, Hon. Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court of the United States
•1997-1998: Law clerk, Hon. Laurence H. Silberman, United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit

Lagoa:

•2019-present: Judge, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit
•2019: Justice, Florida Supreme Court
•2006-2019: Judge, Florida Third District Court of Appeal •2019: Chief Judge
•2003-2006: Assistant U.S. attorney, U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida
•1992-2003: Private practice

Larsen:

•2017-present: Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit
•2015-2017: Justice, Michigan Supreme Court
•2003-2015: Lecturer and special counsel to the dean, University of Michigan School of Law
•2002-2003: Deputy assistant attorney general, office of legal counsel, U.S. Department of Justice
•1998-2002: Lecturer and special counsel to the dean, University of Michigan School of Law
•1997-1998: Visiting lecturer, Northwestern University Law School
•1995-1997: Private practice, Washington, D.C.
•1994-1995: Law clerk, Hon. Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court of the United States
•1993-1994: Law clerk, Hon. David Sentelle, United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit

Rushing:

•2019-present: Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit
•2011-2019: Attorney, Private practice
•2010-2011: Law clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court of the United States
•2009-2010: Attorney, Private practice
•2008-2009: Law clerk to then-Chief Judge David Sentelle on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
•2007-2008: Law clerk to the Hon. Neil Gorsuch. At that time, Gorsuch was a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit

[DMF13]

Yes, but which do you think will get the nomination, and why?

[DDTSGM]

Lagoa or Larsen.

[Yung]

Yes, but which do you think will get the nomination, and why?

Thanks for asking my opinion.

Honestly, it looks like though Barrett's had less time served, she's decided more high-profile cases.
https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/09/p...t/#more-296222

By comparison, while Lagoa certainly has a conservative track record, she seems to be less of a known quantity on big things outside of her written unanimous opinion on DeSantis firing Scott Israel, and I think it's possible her involvement with Amendment 4 when she was Chief Judge in Florida would be a short-term but crucial problem if she ended up being the replacement.

[revchuck38]

I think it’ll be Lagoa, based on her judicial experience and the fact that she’s Latina. The Democrats will have a hard time treating a “woman of color” the way they did the last two nominees. That said, I’d be happy with any of them.

[Guerrero]

Notorious ACB

Good track record, and has already stuck it to Feinstein during a hearing.

[Yung]

The Democrats will have a hard time treating a “woman of color” the way they did the last two nominees.

There's a chance that the Republicans are not going to bother with the farce of confirmation hearings at this point.

[fixer]

Barrett seems to be the only candidate for the nomination that I can find a published opinion regarding the 2A.