Is 10+1 Rounds Enough?

[blues]

Interesting info:

Most crimes are not reported to police, and most reported crimes are not solved. In its annual survey, BJS asks victims of crime whether they reported that crime to police. In 2018, only 43% of violent crimes tracked by BJS were reported to police. And in the much more common category of property crime, only about a third (34%) were reported. There are a variety of reasons crime might not be reported, including a feeling that police “would not or could not do anything to help” or that the crime is “a personal issue or too trivial to report,” according to BJS.

Most of the crimes that are reported to police, meanwhile, are not solved, at least based on an FBI measure known as the “clearance rate.” That’s the share of cases each year that are closed, or “cleared,” through the arrest, charging and referral of a suspect for prosecution (or through “exceptional means,” such as the death of a suspect or a victim’s refusal to cooperate with a prosecution). In 2018, police nationwide cleared 46% of violent crimes that were reported to them. For property crimes, the national clearance rate was 18%.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...me-in-the-u-s/

[TheNewbie]

I worked with a guy who carried a S&W 329PD on duty, with two speed loaders. That’s 18 rounds of full power 44 magnum loads.

Was that enough? Idk, but I would take him, his abilities and his mindset in a fight over most people with “hi capacity” magazines.

[RevolverRob]

If one evaluates violent crime rate on a per-capita basis. The most populous areas of our country tend to have violent crime rates of 1-2%. I would imagine that this trend holds true across the country, though acquiring the statistics to figure this out are all but impossible.

Still, there are 330 million people in the US. A 1% violent crime rate would be ~3.3 million violent crime incidents and a 2% rate would be 6.6 million.

I am not inclined, at all, to believe the United States has a sub-1% violent crime rate overall, at 1.5 million violent crime incidents we would be below 0.5%, which would make us the least violent, large country in the world. If that were true, we would be a model of efficiency and criminal standards globally. Countries with comparable demographics to the US all hover around a 1-2% rate. I'm inclined to believe numbers from ~3-6 million violent crimes committed in the US as viable numbers.

While the sample is skewed, the number of people here on P-F who are not in law enforcement and yet have been victims of violent crime, further indicates to me that a low number like 1.5 million incidents annually is simply not correct.

[TCinVA]

Where are you seeing 6 million? I am seeing 1.2 million violent crimes.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/pr...ime-statistics

“In 2018, there were an estimated 1,206,836 violent crimes.“

https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....aranoid-Hardly

Here is something I have been preaching about for years. It’s nice to see the same theme appear in a mainstream publication. This article appeared recently in The Federalist.https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/08...gainst-danger/

The basic premise of the article is that it is NOT paranoid or irrational to carry a firearm for self defense. Here is a small bit of that author’s data on the subject.

In 2017, 2.7 million Americans were injured in 6.4 million car crashes.

In 2018, 3.3 million Americans age 12 or older were the victim of one of the 6 million violent crimes. So, your odds of being involved in a violent crime are higher than your odds of being involved in an automobile accident. In this light, carrying a handgun is just like wearing a seatbelt. Good read.

https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....ic-Radio/page2

Rob- I’ll save you the trouble of looking for a check.

The problem lies in the source of various statistics. After spending 25 years in patrol or investigative work I can tell you there is far more violent crime, and violent crime against completely innocent victims, than you imagine.

Part of the confusion comes from the adoption of “incident based reporting” some time ago. In the past, under “offense based reporting” if a subject robbed 5 people at gunpoint, that was five armed robberies. Now it is one armed robbery. So, the armed robbery rate is now lower.

The FBI UCR report lists total crimes each year, using the incident based reporting model. Another problem is that the UCR system is voluntary—police agencies are not required to report all or any data to the FBI. Thus, their totals are way, way under-reported. The UCR shows about 12,500 murders a year in recent years, while experts think the actual number of criminal homicides in the US is closer to 40,000 a year. The same under-reporting applies to other violent crimes.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics is a part of the Justice Department, separate from the FBI. According to the BJS, in the US in 2006 there were 5,585,620 violent crimes. For that year, the BJS lists 1,209,730 Aggravated Assaults. A majority of those would probably justify a lethal self defense response. The BJS says there were 255,630 Forcible Rapes in 2006. The 2011 numbers rose to 5.8 million, one for every 30 adults.

In Memphis alone in 2013 there were 154 homicides. That number sounds like low odds. That is because of a very busy and very proficient Class 1 Trauma Center there, who treated 3,100 people for gunshots in 2013 alone. In Memphis in 2013 there were 9,165 Aggravated Assaults, according to the MPD, which is an average of 25.1 per day.

I’ve had dozens of students involved in legitimate self defense shootings. These are people with clean records and who possess handgun carry permits. They were typically going about their daily routine when attacked.

https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=6686

• The number of violent-crime victims age 12 or older rose from 2.7 million in 2015 to 3.3 million in 2018, an increase of 604,000 victims.
• The portion of white persons age 12 or older who were victims of violent crime increased from 0.96% in 2015 to 1.19% in 2018 (up 24%), while the portion of males who were victims increased from 0.94% to 1.21% (up 29%).
• The rate of violent victimizations not reported to police rose from 9.5 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2015 to 12.9 per 1,000 in 2018, while the rate of violent victimizations reported to police showed no statistically significant change.
• The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018

[jh9]

what is commonly called Boarding House Rules- everybody gets firsts, before anyone gets seconds

AKA Vickers/Hackathorn/Wilson/IDPA's "tactical sequence".

Does anyone still teach that?

[kitchen's mill]

The 5 is 1, 10 is 2, 15 is 3 arguement is flawed.

The first gun fight Bob Stasch was in was with a little 135lb man with a knife, no drugs or alcohol in his system.

If I remember right the little man took 15 rounds and was still fighting as they stuffed him into an ambulance.

6 hits with a .45 Colt, 5 +p .38 lswchp, 4 .44 magnum.

Statistics are good, I hope the stats that I'll be killed in a car wreck each day are low, otherwise I might quit driving.

But I still buckle my seat belt when I take off.

I carry a gun too and I'm glad the stats show I probably won't need it.......

[PX4 Storm Tracker]

AKA Vickers/Hackathorn/Wilson/IDPA's "tactical sequence".

Does anyone still teach that?

We practice this regularly at our outdoor range. We add varieties, such as: Starting from the holster while confronting verbally. The caller will call out a sequence to surprise you. Perhaps- silhouette 1, 4, 3 to the head... then we back up 2 steps at low ready for a couple more surprise calls. We call this Confrontations.

Another exercise starts from walking along. The caller calls out the targets and actions... One hand draw to 4, charge 2, retreat 1, etc. We walk in 4 different directions. We call this Strolling.

We practice starting from arm twists, head-locks, knife attacks, etc..

These are a few examples, but many of our exercises are based on being taken by surprise from different directions with multiple opponents. It is lots of fun and will make you agile with your pistol.

This ties into an opinion about using the same pistol (or exact stunt double) as your carry pistol. Instinctive point and feel for that pistol will get you on target faster and more consistently. Effectiveness under adrenaline rush and unfamiliarity is enhanced by knowing your pistol like it is a natural part of your hand.

[HCM]

I have Hk's in 3 calibers. I carry the P30 in .40 most of the time because it is somewhat lighter than my HK45. I'm just not totally comfortable with my VP9 because of the Glock/striker-type trigger that I consider unsafe and I feel less well-armed with the 9mm.

I think the .40 or .45 will take down as many or more "targets"
as the larger capacity 9mm due to a larger chunk of lead with the same latest developments in HP design.

I do carry the HK45 once in a while. Due to my preferred method of carry; OWB, shirt untucked, it conceals about as well as anything.

A side note: The Hk45 magazine WILL accept an 11th round.
Hk says not to do this, but I sometimes find I have inadvertantly loaded 11 because the round-count peep-holes in the mag only shows 9 rounds when loaded with 10.

I'm not advocating this, but if you are very concerned over around or two capacity, mag springs won't break the bank.

Not picking on you but you raise some common issues that are relevant to the OPsquestion.
I’m going to work backwards here. Studying gunfights and training people as part of my job a few basic principles have emerged:

- the most important factor in gun selection is reliability. The extra space in the HK45 mag is there to allow the spring to work properly, this is why HK mags, while some of the most reliable tend to have lower capacity. There is no free lunch. Squeezing in an extra round defeats the margin of reliability that is the whole reason to select HK. This is true of jamming extra rounds into any mag such as 31 rounds into PMAGS etc. The importance of reliability is why I continue to carry an optional Glock vs the P320, even though I shoot the P320 a little better.

There is more to gunfighting than marksmanship and terminal ballistics. Based on both studies and 30 plus people I have personally seen shot terminal ballistics comes down to little to no difference in effects of service handgun rounds; One shot stops (THE holy grail back in the 89s/early 90s) are not really a thing with handguns. Tom Givens comments about the 1911 being a two bad guy gun etc are on point. Shot placement is, IME the determinant factor in terminal ballistic effectiveness. The late Finn Aagard’s quote about “shot placement being 90% of killing power” based on his experience in both Kenya’s Mau Mau insurgence and as a professional hunter match’s my experiences.

Given the necessity of good shot placement, the fact that opponents move and that your fight will be what it is, not what you want it to be Givens calculus of 3-4 rounds per opponent is spot on. Among those lines more than one bad guy (or wild animal) is not an uncommon scenario so the split times for multiple shots two handed and the ability to hit in an accurate and timely fashion one handed are both real factors. As are unusual body positions etc.

As @DMWINCLE pointed out many people base their perception of what is effective on two handed slow fire shooting from standing and it can give a false perception of effectiveness in comparison to actual conditions.

Does this mean you will get “kilt in da streets” with a .40 or .45 HK ? No, I’ve carried both as duty guns, but you should but understand the calculus of the decision you are making.

[GAP]

https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....aranoid-Hardly



https://pistol-forum.com/showthread....ic-Radio/page2



https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=6686

[/LIST]

Oh, ok I went with the FBI...

[blues]

Oh, ok I went with the FBI...

Oh, you're the one...