Because we aren't really voting for Biden but voting for his VP who will likely be the president soon after a Biden win (speculation), I would give a black woman like Bottoms/Biden a fair chance of winning the election. Trumps popularity is;
Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away
In the P-F basket of deplorables.
Sir, would you like mayo or mustard on your shit sandwich?
If I were tasked with making the case for a Trump victory I would note the following:
Four years ago at this point Hillary had a 12-point lead.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clin...ry?id=40114224
The national polls are interesting to the extent they reveal trends, but if Trump wins PA, Florida, Arizona and the other battleground states by a combined total of 18 votes, it is irrelevant that he loses California and New York by a combined total of 8 million votes.
Still, Rasmussen shows Trump at 47% approval, which is a few points higher than Obama at this point 4 years ago. Rasmussen pretty much nailed the popular vote in 2016
https://m.rasmussenreports.com/publi...ez_track_jun24
If I were called by a pollster, in any given week my answer on the Trump approval question will likely be different than it was the week before. Given the choices am I going to end up voting for Trump? Hard to see how I don’t. Extrapolating from that probably means that there are more than 47% who will end up voting for him.
It also makes sense that the polls reflect a degree of “shy Tory”/“Bradley Effect” influence. Some of those polled who plan to vote for Trump wouldn’t feel safe saying so to a pollster for fear they could be personally identified. Even if only 2%, that is the difference maker in several states.
Several polls in the past 6 months suggest Trump will get a much larger percentage of the Black vote than the 8% he got in 2016. This jives with other stuff I see and hear. I predict he gets 28% of the Black male vote and 8% of the Black female vote, netting 18%. If that pans out, and I’m willing to bet $5 it does, that helps him bigly in purple states with a significant Black population. E.g., PA, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Michigan.
The prediction I made to a friend a few days ago was that Trump would win all the states he won in 2016 except Michigan, and would pick up New Hampshire. Given this Michigan poll from a few days ago, done by the same outfit that was really close in much of its state polling in 2016, I’m a little less confident he’ll lose it.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...t__143512.html
Here's another scenario for you. I hear a lot of people say I just vote the lesser of the two evils. In the case of a Biden presidency, and he checks out, who replaces him? Anyone out there that would be acceptable as a president. This isn't far fetched. People voted for Trump based on the lesser of the two evils. So who could you see as Biden's VP given the real possibility that person may become the next president?
Or do you care? I don't because for me the games already over.
In the P-F basket of deplorables.