Since we took a drift to talking about media bias, I think you will all find this article interesting.
Journalists’ Twitter use shows them talking within smaller bubbles
Since we took a drift to talking about media bias, I think you will all find this article interesting.
Journalists’ Twitter use shows them talking within smaller bubbles
" La rose est sans pourquoi, elle fleurit parce qu’elle fleurit ; Elle n’a souci d’elle-même, ne demande pas si on la voit. » Angelus Silesius
"There are problems in this universe for which there are no answers." Paul Muad'dib
Originally Posted by jh9
Yawn, thread is about Biden has a lead. Post a story that he has a lead. True Trump believers get all upset. For the psychology of true believers, read:
Thinking, Fast and Slow Paperback – April 2, 2013
by Daniel Kahneman
Warning - DO NOT READ THIS - IT IS FROM THE ATLANTIC:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ndemic/614074/
You will go blind!
Now back to polls and Joe vs. Donald.
https://twitter.com/errolbarnett/sta...40305865400321
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HRC had the lead.. that didn't work out. I've never actually talked to a human being that ever gave answers to polls; they just hang up. I know I do. Hell, I hardly know any human beings that even have a land line anymore. Polls are becoming less and less reliable.
The last 15 seconds of that will surely be in a Trump ad soon.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776
Supposedly the poll companies are aware of their failures and trying to avoid this. The land line problem is a major problem. About not knowing anyone, that's because a long time ago, folks calculating the standard error of proportions for polls, decided that a 1200 person sample gave you a good enough confidence interval. However, that assume a really good representative sample. However, that's been screwing them for some time lately.
I don't think we really have a good idea of what will happen. The situation is too fluid.
As I may have mentioned at some point, my feeling is that national polls are useful for discerning trends, but particularly at this stage, not all that useful to pinpoint where things are. Many still encompass adults or registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, most don’t employ sophisticated methods for sussing out likely voters or “Shy Tory” voters, and many don’t weight Ds, Rs and Independents in accordance with their historic turnout percentages. If you look under the hood of several of the recent polls that have gotten a lot of attention, you see that they might have included 24% Rs when in recent years it’s pretty consistently been ~33%, or 12% Independents when they are typically ~30 of the electorate.
Rasmussen seems to employ some fairly sophisticated methodology, and they got it almost exactly right in 2016, so I tend to give his polling more credence than most. Today he has total Trump approval/disapproval at 48/50, and just African-American likely voters at 40/57. Earlier this week Trump was at 51/48.
Versus Biden, this week he’s at 45/48 among all likely voters, and 29/62 among only likely African-American voters. Last week among all likely voters he was 42/48 against Biden.
I continue to maintain that if he gets even close to 29% of the African-American vote, it’s all over.
The debates should be interesting, if they even happen.
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