https://www.vox.com/2020/6/24/213016...n-polling-lead
Despite Vox's best attempts at painting a "very bleak picture" for Trump, they have to concede this bit at the end:Election Day is still months away, but the current polling is painting a very bleak picture of President Donald Trump’s odds of reelection.
...The Times poll is particularly bleak for Trump, and even more worrisome for him, its underlying methodology which involves “weighting” the sample to party registration and not just demographic factors is a relatively Trump-friendly approach. And while some of Trump’s other polls are better, none of them are exactly good.
Translation - "We don't think Joe Biden will win, despite what the polls currently say."After all, Michael Dukakis was up by 17 points in mid-July of 1988.
And I think the translation at the end is correct. I also like how Vox and the polls are spinning it to suggest Biden is winning Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania - Basically the three states he really 'won' in the primaries, yet Trump carried all three states in 2016. I fail to see how Biden will overcome Trumps 4.5% margin of victory in Arizona against Hilary who is more likeable than Biden. The Florida and Pennsylvania races will be closer, but I don't see Biden winning Florida at the end of the day. Pennsylvania was the closest race of those three states in 2016 and will likely be a toss-up in 2020.