China and Chinese manufacturing discussion

[javemtr]

In manufacturing? Fuck no. I don't see it. They run rings around us.

Have you ever guesstimated what a midtech Clinch Pick would cost if it were produced by let's say Spyderco in their CO factory out of S30V? I'm just curious! Thanks!

[SouthNarc]

I assume that knockoff copies of your product come from China. If so, does their government make an effort to penalize the trespassers?

Nope.

[SouthNarc]

Have you ever guesstimated what a midtech Clinch Pick would cost if it were produced by let's say Spyderco in their CO factory out of S30V? I'm just curious! Thanks!

We were paying $165 over 10 years ago for a mid-teched blade made from S30V and Paul Bos heat treating.

And yes.....with my relationship with Spyderco I most assuredly talked to Sal and Erik about them making Clinch Picks for us and we could have easily done so, at Spyderco American made prices. In the mean time broke ass cops are gonna pay $40 retail for a TDI that more than likely if used is gonna end up for a year or so in an evidence bag.

One of the goals of going to a China was to try and create a sub $100 CP for the end user. We managed to do that and make a better profit as a business.

[mtnbkr]

Personally/professionally I have concerns beyond manufacturing. My area is IT Security Services and I'm seeing more and more of the less complex, but non-regulated (govt, specific industries, etc), work moving to what we refer to as "lower cost economies" (ie India and similar places). Americans can compete on ability when it comes to the complex or technically creative work, but not on the transactional work that is more akin to repetitive factory tasks. Because we can hire 4+ in a lower-cost-economy for the cost of 1 American, you simply can't argue against it. Even in those grey areas where there might be a discussion around skills and capability, I can hire 3-4 overseas AND fund training for the cost of 1 American. Our customers expect a price that simply can't be met by using 1st world resources for most things.

I do worry that the standard of living, the consumerism, etc provided by the general post-WWII economy and the periodic upward blips, have set an expectation we can't maintain. What I'm seeing in my area of work is more and more going overseas due to cost and only the bleeding edge or regulation-limited work remaining. Once bleeding edge becomes the new normal, it leaves our shores. Not everyone can do the bleeding edge stuff (this is akin to telling the out-of-work factory laborer to learn to code) and not everyone is located where they can easily pick up the regulated work (not to mention if they can pass background checks for certain "industries").

I wonder if we're pricing ourselves out of all manner of work, not just manufacturing.

Chris

[RoyGBiv]

If folks read the McMaster Atlantic article: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...rategy/609088/
here's a telling quote:



We will be a vassal state and some folks in the economic elite will profit and that's ok with them. My point, BTW, before.

The cheap goods will keep the peasants in minimal comfort with their low level jobs. John Scalzi (great author) had one of his characters in the the Last Emperox book (about the fall of a space emperor) say: "Civilization was designed to keep the rich as rich as possible and the poor from actively starving so that they wouldn't think to rise up and behead the rich."

Being a vassal to China to enrich some and cheap WalMart goods to placate the less well to do, sounds like that plan to me.

Just because he believes that in his smug echo chamber of single party overconfidence doesn't mean it's true.

[RoyGBiv]

Nope.

Make a deal with your factory and let them trademark your products for the China market, then set them free to pursue infringers in Chinese courts. If you don't currently have plans to pursue China retail sales it could be a win win.

[RoyGBiv]

I really & strongly doubt that the CCP will be here come 2030.

They're a mix of Japan Inc bubble and old USSR internal rot & corruption*- and Corona-Chan isn't exactly going to help with either.

Now, while rolling your tanks over your own people can help in the short run, there's only so many times you can unleash the Cossaks before they stop listening to you - just ask Tsar Nicky or the late Conducător of Romania.


*remember when either of those was supposed to bury us?

I think your time line is a bit optimistic but agree with you otherwise.

[RoyGBiv]

Do you think all of them are committed Communist? Selfless New Soviet Men?
They're just Chinese people traveling and working and studying abroad, nothing more. If anything, those who return are less likely to put up with endless nonsense from their government, not more.

The Smithfield thing? Remember when Japan owned everything?

Agreed. Trade and travel will be key to unraveling government control. However....
It's quite difficult to get exit visas for your whole family to travel abroad simultaneously.
Exit visa? Yes, exit requires permission.
Read between the lines re incentives, controls and motivations.

[JAD]

In a thread where we’re talking about, or should be talking about, doing less business with a country that like all other communist countries is a murderous dictatorship, it’s fun to see some posters using the old commie language of the prospering fat cats and the poor oppressed workers.

[NH Shooter]

It doesn't seem that long ago that "made in Japan" was associated with cheap and inferior. Now look what that phrase means (cars, optics, etc.).

We are witnessing the same trajectory with "made in China." Politics, theft of IP, etc. aside, a growing number of Chinese vendors are getting very good at making quality items. They aren't great at designing, but send them the drawings and full specifications and the result can be excellent quality at a price that cannot be matched anywhere. As a product manager involved in the design and manufacturing of valves, I witness this every day. My experience with the Chinese vendors we deal with mirrors @SouthNarc 's observation - they take pride in what they do and are excellent to work with.

I am also aware that the quotes we get defy explanation. Our in-house analysis indicates that the quotes barely cover cost of material, so how can the price be that low? I have believe that the flip (bad) side is that the Chinese government is actively conducting economic warfare on the U.S. by subsidizing its own manufacturing base to gain an unfair advantage. If the Chi-com's long term goal is to neuter American manufacturing capability, they are well on their way.

One product I am currently getting ready to launch is a brass-body valve that we're having made in China, only because (1) all of our competitors' valves are made there and (2) it's the only way we could compete in the open market. In this regard, it's either "made in China" or we stand to lose tens of millions of dollars in market share.

Is there a way out of this predicament? Yes, but just like getting into bed with them took time, getting out will take time too. In the case of the valve I'm working on, we are moving to an injection-molded composite body valve that will be produced in N. America because full automation will bring the price down to where we can compete. So that next gen valve may not be made in China, but its unlikely to result in any new U.S. jobs either. In the larger picture, the company I work for is deliberately charting a course out of China, something I believe is now happening in many sectors of manufacturing. But China will remain a strong competitor as they now have the expertise to do so thanks in large measure to us (as in all of us).