Urbanization and CV19

[bravo7]

Sanctuary cities are full of illegal aliens. They have taken over several urban areas and essentially group themselves in those areas. This suburb has all Guatemalans, this suburb all Somalians, this suburb all Brazilians, this one all Dominiricans, etc. On top of that people chop up houses and triple deckers to maximize revenue and build a crap ton of tiny rooms to rent for all of them. These structures are overly crowded. This situation will not go away and needless to say this new virus or even the next ones that will assuredly come will have no effect.

[Zincwarrior]

I wonder if this CV19 pandemic will impact the urbanization trend. We were seeing demographic shifts were more people wanted to live in big cities and that was impacting industries that were in more rural locations.

People go where the jobs are.

[ranger]

Nephrology makes excellent points. Also, moves to population centers has always been about jobs. No one enjoys long commutes, and even if some people are willing to make long commutes, most can't afford it, both in lost personal time, and actual expenses for the travel. People will continue to go where the jobs are, and the desire to keep commutes short, and affordable, will limit how spread out people can be in their home choices.

I commute 47 miles each way to NOT live in downtown Atlanta. There are many commuters in Atlanta like me.

[ranger]

If this short-term work from home movement becomes an actual paradigm shift, then the link between jobs and cities could be permanently weakened and the commute factor disappears.

I suspect that many companies will realize they no longer need their palace HQs and predict a negative impact on urban office space.

[Nephrology]

One of the reasons I stay in my suburban/near urban area is because of the medical infrastructure that is easily available to me.

I have the option of escaping Denver for Missoula MT but am sticking around for this reason, too.

I commute 47 miles each way to NOT live in downtown Atlanta. There are many commuters in Atlanta like me.

I've never lived close to downtown and have no desire to, but at some point commutes are prohibitive. Everyone has a personal limit and it depends on their job requirements. For example, in my thinking about future residency training programs, I recognize I won't necessarily have the time or stamina for a long commute when hours get rough. Most likely won't apply to any large city programs for this reason. Denver metro sized is about as big as I can do and even that frankly feels like a bit much these days.

[Maple Syrup Actual]

Nephrology makes excellent points. Also, moves to population centers has always been about jobs. No one enjoys long commutes, and even if some people are willing to make long commutes, most can't afford it, both in lost personal time, and actual expenses for the travel. People will continue to go where the jobs are, and the desire to keep commutes short, and affordable, will limit how spread out people can be in their home choices.

Obviously lots of jobs still require hands-on presence (which is good, because they can't outsource a plumber to India) but one other factor here that will influence the thoughts on urbanization: suddenly, everyone who can work from home, does work from home.

My boss now frequently talks about how much he prefers this and how much more connected to the team he feels. Maybe not everyone will have this experience, but I think all of a sudden, people will be looking to relocate jobs, too.

I'm not suggesting this is the end of cities or anything; obviously they'll remain as major economic drivers and lots of jobs will be there.

But I do think we're about to see a whole lot of people asking themselves...were we maybe oversold on the advantages?

Personally, I think so.



As I do occasionally point out though, I live in a small town that is culturally extremely homogeneous, with a fairly high average income, not much disparity between top and bottom, and pretty major hospitals within half an hour's drive. My situation is, essentially, ideal.

I got banged up a bit at a distant relative's place not too far from Kleena Kleene, BC and IIRC it took me about seven hours of driving to get to a hospital. So there's rural, and there's rural.

[Darth_Uno]

I suspect that many companies will realize they no longer need their palace HQs and predict a negative impact on urban office space.

This, and I'm thinking there may be more options for remote schooling. Basically homeschooling, only through the local school district.

[okie john]

If this short-term work from home movement becomes an actual paradigm shift, then the link between jobs and cities could be permanently weakened and the commute factor disappears.

Absolutely.

I’m doing contract work for a major tech company right now. Smart people are very definitely rethinking the remote work model. Some things clearly require face-to-face collaboration. Others don’t.


Okie John

[HCM]

https://www.ft.com/content/aaef1591-...IUHlmlU5SGRokE

Drug gangs in Brazil’s favelas enforce coronavirus lockdown

Organised crime steps in as President Bolsonaro dismisses pandemic as ‘sniffles’

Many of today’s slums were first constructed in the 1970s when rural workers moved to Brazil’s cities and built basic homes with cinder blocks and tin roofs.

Such was their construction that, even with the intervention of gangs and militias, social distancing would be difficult to achieve. They “have a high demographic density, the houses are very close to each other, and people live crammed into one space”, said Mario Dal Poz at the Institute of Social Medicine at the State University of Rio de Janeiro and a former official at the World Health Organization.

Many lack access to sanitation and water — conditions that now threaten to exacerbate the coronavirus outbreak.

“How are we going to take care of each other and ourselves if we live crammed in one little house? How are we going to wash our hands if we don’t have running water all the time?” said Marcos Vinícius dos Santos, a 22-year-old in Paraisópolis, a shantytown in São Paulo.

[OlongJohnson]

The only way this DOESN'T become a serious referendum on urban density is if the media is so thoroughly drawn from an exclusively urban demographic that they don't actually realize there are places outside of NYC etc which might be faring differently.

And I think that is a genuine possibility.

Shapiro speculated that LA's infection growth rate seems to be proportionately slower than NY & SF perhaps at least in part due to the automotive commuting. Something along the lines of, "Your PPE is your car." Both of the other cities have high use of train systems to get in and out of the city.