Air Force suicides surged last year to highest in three decades

[Wendell]

According to preliminary figures, the Air Force had 84 suicides among active-duty members last year, up from 60 the year before. The jump followed five years of relative stability, with the service’s yearly totals fluctuating between 60 and 64. Official figures won’t be published until later this year and could vary slightly from preliminary data. Air Force officials, who confirmed the 2019 total, said they knew of no higher number in recent years. Data and studies previously published by the Pentagon and Air Force show that 64 suicides in 2015 had been the highest total for the Air Force in this century. A 2009 Air Force study said suicides between 1990 and 2004 averaged 42 a year and never exceeded 62.
https://www.pressherald.com/2020/02/...three-decades/

[MistWolf]

My son is in the Air Force. One of his fellow Airmen committed suicide just after Thanksgiving.

[KellyinAvon]

I retired from Big Blue in 2007. While there was always an emphasis on suicide prevention, it took a lot to get more attention. Almost half the USAF's suicides on year in the 90s were at one base. The reaction? Meh. Suicides and homicides at the base that was home to the J-STARS which had a new organizational structure in 2004? That got attention.

The main questions always seemed to be: "Are the planes getting into the air?" and "Does the number of landings = the number of take-offs?" If the answers were yes, there was never a problem.

[Redhat]

I retired from Big Blue in 2007. While there was always an emphasis on suicide prevention, it took a lot to get more attention. Almost half the USAF's suicides on year in the 90s were at one base. The reaction? Meh. Suicides and homicides at the base that was home to the J-STARS which had a new organizational structure in 2004? That got attention.

The main questions always seemed to be: "Are the planes getting into the air?" and "Does the number of landings = the number of take-offs?" If the answers were yes, there was never a problem.

Too bad they didn't offer any more detailed stats...like causes?

[JRB]

I have a few buddies that are USAF. A mix of Security Forces and Red Horse.

They all tell me that being an E5/E6 in those orgs is a nightmare because you're blamed for everything that goes wrong and you're not given any authority or effective tools to solve those problems. In particular, lazy/toxic first line leaders are abundant in the E6/E7 range and O2/O3 range.
I've heard lots of stories of E3's and E4's, even E5's going AWOL and otherwise saying 'Fuck this' when perpetually toxic senior NCO's and O2/O3 officers can't stop doing toxic, morale-sapping shit or otherwise doing unprofessional crap like obvious favoritism, taking full credit for work their subordinates did, etc.
The lack of upward promotion opportunities and new assignments make that a real motherfucker too. There are posts and assignments that an active duty E3 or E4 Airman can expect to spend their entire first enlistment at, and routinely that's in the same unit and same command.
If you're deep in some toxic suck, and you're going to be in that suck for the next 3-4 years guaranteed, and you don't see any way of fixing or improving your situation - that's exactly and precisely the environment in which suicide, alcoholism, AWOL, etc thrives.

Take care of your joes and they'll take care of your mission. Give them the credit for the work they do and what they get right. Hold them accountable for what they fuck up and hold yourself accountable to make sure they get it right the next time.

So easy to write in a few sentences, but so damn difficult for so many NCO's and Officers to actually *do* every day.

[Redhat]

I have a few buddies that are USAF. A mix of Security Forces and Red Horse.

They all tell me that being an E5/E6 in those orgs is a nightmare because you're blamed for everything that goes wrong and you're not given any authority or effective tools to solve those problems. In particular, lazy/toxic first line leaders are abundant in the E6/E7 range and O2/O3 range.
I've heard lots of stories of E3's and E4's, even E5's going AWOL and otherwise saying 'Fuck this' when perpetually toxic senior NCO's and O2/O3 officers can't stop doing toxic, morale-sapping shit or otherwise doing unprofessional crap like obvious favoritism, taking full credit for work their subordinates did, etc.
The lack of upward promotion opportunities and new assignments make that a real motherfucker too. There are posts and assignments that an active duty E3 or E4 Airman can expect to spend their entire first enlistment at, and routinely that's in the same unit and same command.
If you're deep in some toxic suck, and you're going to be in that suck for the next 3-4 years guaranteed, and you don't see any way of fixing or improving your situation - that's exactly and precisely the environment in which suicide, alcoholism, AWOL, etc thrives.

Take care of your joes and they'll take care of your mission. Give them the credit for the work they do and what they get right. Hold them accountable for what they fuck up and hold yourself accountable to make sure they get it right the next time.

So easy to write in a few sentences, but so damn difficult for so many NCO's and Officers to actually *do* every day.

Retired almost 9 yrs ago from Security Forces...if this is true, things sure must have changed.

[JRB]

Retired almost 9 yrs ago from Security Forces...if this is true, things sure must have changed.

The Army I'm in now doesn't look at all like the Army I joined in 2008. Shit changed a lot during the previous administration.

Obviously (I hope) my third-hand anecdotal account described above isn't an absolute, but it is a very real tendency that's gaining traction because of a myriad of other problems. A very good friend of mine that's a Redhorse E6 is living a similar toxic SNCO nightmare right now, and that's at the forefront of my mind as I shared that account.

There's good units and orgs out there, seems harder and harder to find them though. That's true for the Army as well as the USAF.

[whomever]

FWIW, if I put on my statistician hat, that is very possibly just random variation. Look at these two sentences from the article:

"A 2009 Air Force study said suicides between 1990 and 2004 averaged 42 a year and never exceeded 62."

So over that period the number ranged from somewhere below (probably well below) 42 to 62 - which shows that it's a small enough number that it jumps around a fair amount. With that history:

"84 suicides among active-duty members last year, up from 60 the year before."

doesn't necessarily seem at odds with the variation seen in the past.

It does seem like there may be enough data to suggest that there are more suicides in the last couple of decades than in the late 1900's (saying 'late 1900's sure makes me feel old...). That seems to be the case in society generally - I went to WISQARS and got the suicide data for males age 20 to 29 from 1981 to 2017 (the most recent year) and just eyeballing them, the rate per 100k was 25ish through the 1980s, with a dip to 20ish for the first few years of the new century, and over the last couple of years has climbed back up to 25 or a little over.

I should emphasize - I know absolutely nothing about anything going on in the Air Force - changing culture, deployment schedules, whatever. I'm just cautioning that the reported numbers seem to generally be tracking the numbers of society at large, with perhaps more variation, which you would expect from the smaller sample size.

It is very common to see e.g. mayors claiming 'my new policies have dropped the murder rate by 50%', when the number of murders in his town normally jigs up and down that much. 'Our new gun control law reduced the homicide rate in Whoville by 33.267%' is another example, as is 'the number of rapes dropped 42.745% after the new CCW law went into effect'. Small sample sizes of variable numbers, alas, just can't really tell you whether you're looking at a trend or noise.

[GyroF-16]

Thanks @whomever. That’s valuable perspective.
It would seem that it might be premature to react to a “trend” until an actual trend can be identified.

That said, the AF would do well to continue their suicide prevention program, as I’d like to think there were likely some missed intervention opportunities in these 84 incidents.

But I take your point - there may be no “common root cause”, which is what many will be looking for.

[Redhat]

I have a few buddies that are USAF. A mix of Security Forces and Red Horse.

...There are posts and assignments that an active duty E3 or E4 Airman can expect to spend their entire first enlistment at, and routinely that's in the same unit and same command. ...


Take care of your joes and they'll take care of your mission. Give them the credit for the work they do and what they get right. Hold them accountable for what they fuck up and hold yourself accountable to make sure they get it right the next time.

So easy to write in a few sentences, but so damn difficult for so many NCO's and Officers to actually *do* every day.

As a side note...In my 25 years, this was normal ops, especially for stateside assignments. I spent 5 years at one unit until I volunteered overseas long.